Wed, Oct 21 · 2026-27

Player projections

Expected minutes, points, rebounds, assists and threes for every player, from recent form, the opponent's defense by position and pace. Each number comes with an 80% range.

01Projections

Wed, Oct 21 · 11 games

Based on 2025-26: nobody has played 5 games of 2026-27 yet, so these use last season's per-minute numbers and expected minutes on each player's current roster. Players with fewer than 20 games last season are left out until they play. They switch to this season's games on their own.

ATL at ORL 7:00 PM ET · MIL at WAS 7:00 PM ET · MIN at MIA 7:30 PM ET · CHA at BKN 7:30 PM ET · CHI at TOR 7:30 PM ET · UTA at MEM 8:00 PM ET · IND at NOP 8:00 PM ET · DAL at HOU 8:30 PM ET · GSW at LAL 10:00 PM ET · PHX at POR 10:00 PM ET · SAC at LAC 10:30 PM ET

Player	Matchup	MIN	PTS ↓	REB	AST	3PM
Luka DoncicForward	vs GSWvs top-5 defense	35	31.819-44	7.24-11	8.14-12	3.71-6
Anthony EdwardsGuard	at MIA	34	29.217-41	5.12-8	3.81-7	3.31-6
Kawhi LeonardForward	vs CHIvs bottom-5 defense	31	28.517-40	6.43-10	3.71-7	2.71-5
Lauri MarkkanenForward	at MEMvs bottom-5 defense	33	27.516-39	7.24-11	2.20-4	2.71-5
Stephen CurryGuard	at LAL	30	25.714-37	3.41-6	4.62-8	4.12-7
Giannis AntetokounmpoForward	vs MIN	25	25.215-38	8.95-14	4.82-8	0.40-2
Kevin DurantForward	vs DAL	35	25.214-36	5.22-9	4.72-8	2.20-4
Devin BookerGuard	at POR	33	24.814-36	3.61-6	5.73-9	1.70-4
Keyonte GeorgeGuard	at MEM	32	23.913-35	3.81-7	6.33-10	2.51-5
Pascal SiakamForward	at NOP	32	23.913-35	6.73-10	3.91-7	1.70-3
Deni AvdijaForward	vs PHX	32	23.313-34	6.53-10	6.43-10	1.80-4
Austin ReavesGuard	vs GSWvs bottom-5 defense	34	22.712-33	4.52-8	5.32-9	2.20-4
Michael Porter Jr.Forward	vs CHA	32	22.612-33	6.33-10	2.81-5	3.21-6
Paolo BancheroForward	vs ATL	34	22.312-33	8.44-13	5.22-9	1.10-3
Jalen JohnsonForward	at ORLvs top-5 defense	34	21.912-32	10.16-15	7.44-11	1.50-3
Trey Murphy IIIForward	vs IND	34	21.511-32	5.72-9	3.71-7	3.11-6
Norman PowellForward	at TOR	29	21.412-33	3.51-7	2.40-5	2.51-5
Zion WilliamsonForward	vs IND	29	21.212-33	5.73-10	3.11-6	0.00-1
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerGuard	at ORLvs bottom-5 defense	33	20.911-31	3.41-6	3.61-6	3.11-6
Brandon IngramForward	vs SACvs bottom-5 defense	33	20.911-31	5.22-9	3.71-7	1.70-4
Bam AdebayoCenter	vs MIN	32	20.711-31	10.36-15	3.61-6	1.90-4
LaMelo BallGuard	at MIA	28	20.611-32	5.12-9	7.44-12	3.82-7
Cooper FlaggForward	at HOU	33	20.310-30	6.33-10	4.32-7	0.90-2
Shaedon SharpeGuard	vs PHXvs top-5 defense	29	20.211-31	4.11-7	2.50-5	1.90-4
Desmond BaneGuard	vs ATL	33	20.110-30	4.11-7	4.12-7	2.00-4
Jaren Jackson Jr.Forward	at MEMvs bottom-5 defense	30	20.111-31	6.03-10	2.00-4	1.80-4
Alperen SengunForward	vs DAL	32	20.110-30	8.65-13	6.23-10	0.50-2
RJ BarrettForward	vs CHIvs bottom-5 defense	30	19.810-31	5.32-9	3.41-6	1.70-4
Julius RandleForward	vs CHA	32	19.710-29	6.03-10	4.62-8	1.30-3
Dillon BrooksGuard	at POR	30	19.310-30	3.41-6	1.70-4	2.10-4
Jerami GrantForward	vs UTA	29	19.310-30	3.61-7	2.40-5	2.41-5
CJ McCollumGuard	at ORLvs bottom-5 defense	29	19.010-30	3.31-6	3.81-7	2.41-5
Brandon MillerForward	at BKN	30	18.810-30	4.52-8	3.11-6	2.81-5
Jimmy ButlerGuard	at LAL	28	18.09-29	4.92-8	4.52-8	0.70-2
Darius GarlandGuard	vs SAC	29	18.09-29	2.20-5	6.53-11	2.61-5
Bennedict MathurinGuard	vs INDvs bottom-5 defense	29	18.09-29	5.62-9	2.40-5	1.30-3
Scottie BarnesGuard	vs CHI	33	18.09-27	7.44-11	6.13-10	0.80-2
Saddiq BeyForward	vs IND	31	17.88-27	5.62-9	2.50-5	2.00-4
Franz WagnerForward	vs ATL	25	17.69-28	4.42-8	2.91-6	1.20-3
Zach LaVineGuard	at LAC	29	17.28-28	2.40-5	2.00-4	2.31-4
Kon KnueppelGuard	at BKN	31	17.18-26	4.92-8	3.21-6	3.11-6
Amen ThompsonGuard	vs DALvs top-5 defense	35	17.18-26	7.34-11	5.02-8	0.30-2
Ryan RollinsGuard	at WAS	31	17.08-26	4.52-8	5.63-9	2.30-5
Andrew NembhardGuard	at NOP	31	16.98-26	2.81-5	7.64-12	1.80-4
Josh GiddeyGuard	at TOR	31	16.98-26	8.14-12	8.85-13	1.80-4
Tyler HerroGuard	at WAS	25	16.58-27	3.81-7	3.41-6	2.00-4
Coby WhiteGuard	at BKN	25	16.48-26	3.21-6	3.91-7	2.10-4
Immanuel QuickleyGuard	vs CHI	31	16.47-25	4.01-7	6.13-10	2.51-5
Miles BridgesForward	at PORvs top-5 defense	30	16.27-25	5.52-9	3.01-6	1.70-4
Matas BuzelisForward	at TOR	29	16.18-26	5.83-10	2.00-4	2.10-4
Brice SensabaughForward	at MEMvs bottom-5 defense	24	16.07-27	3.31-7	2.10-4	2.21-4
Kevin Porter Jr.Guard	at WAS	30	15.97-25	4.72-8	6.94-11	1.10-3
Jrue HolidayGuard	vs PHXvs top-5 defense	29	15.87-26	4.42-8	5.83-10	2.41-5
Alexandre SarrCenter	vs MILvs top-5 defense	27	15.87-26	7.14-11	2.61-5	0.90-2
Andrew WigginsForward	vs MIN	30	15.87-26	5.02-9	2.71-5	2.00-4
Jabari Smith Jr.Forward	vs DAL	34	15.57-24	6.63-10	1.80-4	2.20-4
Collin SextonGuard	vs GSWvs bottom-5 defense	24	15.57-26	2.20-5	3.31-6	1.60-3
Grayson AllenGuard	at BKN	28	15.47-25	2.81-6	3.71-7	2.91-5
Ayo DosunmuGuard	at MIA	27	15.37-25	3.61-7	3.81-7	1.80-4
Nikola VucevicCenter	vs ATL	28	15.27-25	8.55-13	3.41-6	1.60-3
Jaime Jaquez Jr.Guard	at WAS	28	15.27-25	4.92-9	4.82-8	0.70-2
Anthony BlackGuard	vs ATL	29	15.17-25	3.81-7	3.71-7	1.50-3
Jaden McDanielsForward	at MIA	31	15.06-24	4.42-7	2.71-5	1.40-3
Onyeka OkongwuForward	at ORLvs top-5 defense	30	14.96-23	7.54-12	3.01-6	1.80-4
Naji MarshallForward	at HOU	29	14.87-24	4.52-8	3.11-6	0.80-2
KyShawn GeorgeForward	vs MIL	28	14.77-24	5.02-9	4.62-8	2.10-4
Jeremiah FearsGuard	vs INDvs bottom-5 defense	26	14.77-24	3.81-7	3.51-7	1.20-3
Cedric CowardGuard	vs UTAvs bottom-5 defense	26	14.56-24	6.23-10	3.01-6	1.60-3
Airious BaileyForward	at MEMvs bottom-5 defense	27	14.46-24	4.42-8	1.90-4	1.90-4
Ivica ZubacCenter	at NOP	30	14.46-24	10.96-16	2.20-5	0.00-1
Bobby PortisForward	vs MIN	24	14.36-24	6.73-11	1.60-4	2.00-4
Tre JonesGuard	at TOR	27	14.16-23	3.11-6	5.22-9	0.60-2
Kelly Oubre Jr.Forward	at NOP	31	14.16-22	5.12-8	1.70-4	1.70-4
Jalen SuggsGuard	vs ATL	27	14.06-23	3.91-7	5.63-9	2.10-4
Tim Hardaway Jr.Guard	vs MIN	26	14.06-23	2.70-5	1.40-3	2.71-5
Aaron NesmithGuard	at NOP	29	13.86-23	4.11-7	1.90-4	2.31-5
Jalen GreenGuard	at POR	21	13.75-24	2.80-6	2.20-4	1.60-3
P.J. WashingtonForward	at HOU	30	13.76-22	6.73-11	1.70-4	1.30-3
Santi AldamaForward	at HOU	27	13.76-23	6.43-10	2.81-6	1.50-3
GG JacksonForward	vs UTA	22	13.55-23	4.62-8	1.70-4	1.20-3
Brandin PodziemskiGuard	at LAL	28	13.46-23	4.82-8	3.71-7	1.80-4
Reed SheppardGuard	vs DALvs top-5 defense	26	13.46-23	2.91-6	3.41-6	2.61-5
Jordan PooleGuard	vs INDvs bottom-5 defense	23	13.45-23	2.00-4	3.01-6	2.31-4
Quentin GrimesGuard	vs GSWvs bottom-5 defense	29	13.26-22	3.51-7	3.21-6	1.60-3
Jaylen WellsForward	vs UTA	26	13.15-22	3.31-6	1.80-4	1.90-4
De'Andre HunterForward	at LAC	26	13.15-22	3.91-7	2.00-4	1.50-3
Kyle KuzmaForward	at WASvs bottom-5 defense	26	13.05-22	4.52-8	2.71-5	1.20-3
Brandon WilliamsGuard	at LAL	22	12.95-23	2.80-6	3.91-7	0.50-2
Toumani CamaraForward	vs PHX	32	12.95-21	4.92-8	2.30-5	2.51-5
Naz ReidForward	at BKN	26	12.85-22	5.72-10	2.10-4	1.90-4
Tre JohnsonGuard	vs MILvs bottom-5 defense	24	12.55-22	2.90-6	2.10-4	2.00-4
Donte DiVincenzoGuard	at MIA	30	12.55-21	4.31-8	4.01-7	3.01-5
Klay ThompsonGuard	vs MIN	22	12.45-22	2.20-5	1.50-3	2.91-5
Donovan ClinganCenter	vs PHXvs bottom-5 defense	27	12.25-21	11.67-17	2.30-5	1.10-3
Collin GillespieGuard	at POR	28	12.25-21	3.91-7	4.42-8	2.61-5
De'Anthony MeltonGuard	at LAL	23	12.24-22	3.11-6	2.61-5	1.40-3
Maxime RaynaudCenter	at LAC	26	12.15-21	7.24-12	1.30-3	0.30-2
Malik MonkGuard	at LAC	22	12.14-21	1.80-4	2.91-5	1.90-4
Deandre AytonCenter	vs MILvs top-5 defense	27	12.05-21	7.74-12	0.80-2	0.00-1
Kyle FilipowskiCenter	at MEM	23	12.04-21	7.74-13	2.81-5	0.90-2
Isaiah CollierGuard	at MEM	26	12.05-21	2.60-5	7.54-12	0.50-2
Wendell Carter Jr.Forward	vs ATL	29	12.05-21	7.54-12	2.00-4	0.90-2
Myles TurnerCenter	at WASvs bottom-5 defense	27	12.05-21	5.32-9	1.40-3	2.00-4
Derik QueenCenter	vs IND	25	11.95-21	7.24-11	3.81-7	0.30-2
Dyson DanielsGuard	at ORLvs bottom-5 defense	32	11.94-19	6.93-11	5.83-9	0.30-2
Moses MoodyGuard	at LAL	26	11.95-20	3.21-6	1.60-4	2.41-5
Bilal CoulibalyGuard	vs MILvs bottom-5 defense	26	11.95-20	4.42-8	2.71-5	1.20-3
Cam SpencerGuard	vs UTAvs bottom-5 defense	24	11.94-21	2.70-6	6.13-10	2.21-4
Max ChristieGuard	at HOUvs top-5 defense	29	11.95-20	3.11-6	1.80-4	2.20-4
Pelle LarssonGuard	vs MIN	26	11.95-20	3.61-7	3.51-7	0.90-2
Mark WilliamsCenter	at PORvs bottom-5 defense	24	11.94-21	7.84-13	1.00-3	0.00-1
Jarace WalkerForward	at NOP	26	11.85-20	5.32-9	2.71-5	1.70-4
Nicolas ClaxtonForward	at TOR	27	11.64-20	6.93-11	3.61-7	0.00-1
Noah ClowneyForward	vs CHA	27	11.64-20	3.71-7	1.50-4	1.90-4
Jusuf NurkicCenter	at MEM	26	11.44-20	11.06-16	5.22-9	0.60-2
Kel'el WareCenter	at WASvs bottom-5 defense	22	11.34-20	9.15-14	0.70-2	1.20-3
Rui HachimuraForward	vs SACvs bottom-5 defense	28	11.34-20	3.11-6	0.80-2	1.70-4
Jonathan KumingaForward	at MIA	21	11.24-20	5.32-9	2.10-4	0.90-2
Sandro MamukelashviliForward	vs GSWvs top-5 defense	22	11.04-20	4.82-9	1.90-4	1.40-3
Rudy GobertCenter	at MIA	31	10.94-18	11.67-17	1.60-4	0.00-1
Jock LandaleCenter	at ORL	22	10.83-20	5.92-10	1.70-4	1.00-2
Carlton CarringtonGuard	vs MILvs bottom-5 defense	27	10.84-19	3.41-6	4.82-8	2.10-4
Jakob PoeltlCenter	vs CHI	25	10.74-19	7.03-11	2.00-4	0.00-1
Isaiah StewartForward	vs UTA	23	10.63-19	5.32-9	1.30-3	0.70-2
Scoot HendersonGuard	vs PHXvs top-5 defense	19	10.53-19	1.90-4	2.71-5	1.40-3
Will RileyForward	vs MIL	22	10.53-19	2.90-6	2.10-4	1.10-3
Javon SmallGuard	vs UTAvs bottom-5 defense	21	10.53-19	3.41-7	4.12-7	1.60-3
Tari EasonForward	vs DAL	26	10.54-19	6.23-10	1.50-4	1.50-3
Jalen SmithForward	at TOR	21	10.43-19	6.93-12	1.20-3	1.50-3
Khris MiddletonForward	vs MIL	23	10.33-19	3.71-7	2.91-6	1.10-3
Ziaire WilliamsGuard	vs GSWvs bottom-5 defense	23	10.33-19	2.40-5	1.10-3	1.50-3
A.J. GreenGuard	at WAS	29	10.23-18	2.70-5	2.00-4	2.81-5
Dennis SchroderGuard	at BKN	24	10.23-18	2.60-5	4.72-8	1.00-2
Tristan Da SilvaForward	vs ATL	25	10.23-18	3.81-7	1.70-4	1.50-3
Derrick Jones Jr.Forward	vs SACvs bottom-5 defense	27	10.03-18	3.31-6	1.40-3	1.10-3
Jay HuffForward	at NOP	21	9.93-18	4.11-8	1.60-4	1.50-3
Micah PotterForward	vs PHX	20	9.83-18	4.92-9	1.50-3	1.50-3
Jordan MillerGuard	vs SAC	22	9.83-18	2.90-6	2.30-5	0.60-2
Aaron WigginsGuard	at ORLvs bottom-5 defense	22	9.83-18	3.21-6	1.70-4	1.50-3
Egor DeminGuard	vs CHA	25	9.83-18	2.91-6	3.21-6	2.20-4
Precious AchiuwaForward	at LAC	24	9.73-18	6.43-11	1.40-3	0.30-2
Davion MitchellGuard	vs MIN	28	9.63-17	2.71-5	6.73-11	1.30-3
Jaden HardyGuard	vs GSWvs bottom-5 defense	17	9.63-18	1.50-4	1.10-3	1.90-4
Zaccharie RisacherForward	at HOU	23	9.53-18	3.81-7	1.10-3	1.30-3
Daniel GaffordForward	at HOU	22	9.53-18	6.83-11	1.00-3	0.00-1
Isaac OkoroForward	at TOR	27	9.23-17	2.81-5	1.50-4	1.10-3
Royce O'NealeForward	at BKN	28	9.23-17	4.42-8	2.50-5	2.41-5
Marcus SmartGuard	vs DALvs top-5 defense	28	9.23-17	2.71-5	3.01-6	1.50-3
Gui SantosForward	at LAL	21	9.12-17	3.81-7	2.30-5	1.10-3
Cody WilliamsForward	at MIA	24	9.13-17	3.11-6	2.10-4	0.40-2
Herbert JonesForward	vs IND	28	9.03-16	3.41-6	2.71-5	1.40-3
Collin Murray-BoylesForward	vs CHIvs bottom-5 defense	22	8.92-17	5.22-9	2.00-4	0.30-2
Danny WolfForward	vs CHA	21	8.62-17	4.51-8	2.10-4	1.20-3
Brook LopezCenter	vs SACvs bottom-5 defense	22	8.52-16	3.51-7	1.30-3	1.50-3
Jordan GoodwinGuard	at POR	23	8.52-16	4.72-9	2.10-4	1.50-3
Nolan TraoréGuard	vs CHA	22	8.52-16	1.60-4	3.71-7	1.00-2
Luguentz DortGuard	at ORLvs bottom-5 defense	27	8.52-16	3.61-7	1.20-3	1.80-4
Quenton JacksonGuard	at NOP	17	8.52-16	2.10-5	2.61-5	0.80-2
Walter Clayton Jr.Guard	vs UTAvs bottom-5 defense	21	8.52-16	2.20-5	4.52-8	1.20-3
Vit KrejciGuard	vs PHXvs top-5 defense	22	8.42-16	2.20-5	1.50-3	1.90-4
Luke KennardGuard	at POR	22	8.22-16	2.30-5	2.20-4	1.40-3
Nique CliffordGuard	at LAC	25	8.22-15	3.51-7	2.30-5	1.00-2
Daeqwon PlowdenGuard	at LAC	21	8.22-16	2.30-5	1.00-2	1.50-3
Buddy HieldGuard	at TOR	17	8.12-16	2.40-5	1.40-3	1.50-3
Draymond GreenForward	at LAL	27	8.12-15	5.22-9	5.32-9	1.40-3
Nikola JovicForward	vs MIN	18	8.12-16	3.61-7	2.30-5	1.00-2
Al HorfordCenter	at LAL	22	8.12-16	4.72-9	2.51-5	1.40-3
Taylor HendricksForward	vs UTA	19	8.02-16	4.01-8	1.10-3	1.10-3
Jake LaRaviaForward	vs GSWvs top-5 defense	25	8.02-15	3.81-7	1.80-4	0.90-2
Ja'Kobe WalterGuard	vs CHI	21	7.82-15	2.60-6	1.30-3	1.50-3
Keegan MurrayForward	at LAC	20	7.71-15	3.11-6	0.90-2	0.70-2
Jamir WatkinsForward	vs MIL	21	7.71-15	4.01-8	1.50-3	1.00-2
Gary Trent Jr.Guard	at WAS	20	7.61-15	1.00-3	1.20-3	1.70-3
Moussa DiabateForward	at BKN	26	7.42-14	8.04-13	1.80-4	0.00-1
Ben SheppardGuard	at NOP	22	7.31-15	3.11-6	1.80-4	1.30-3
Ben SarafGuard	vs CHA	21	7.31-15	2.00-4	3.21-6	0.40-2
Kobe SandersGuard	vs SAC	20	7.21-14	2.20-5	1.60-4	1.20-3
Patrick WilliamsForward	at TOR	21	7.11-14	3.11-6	1.50-3	1.30-3
Kris DunnGuard	vs SAC	27	7.01-14	3.11-6	3.51-7	0.90-2
Isaiah JacksonForward	vs SACvs bottom-5 defense	17	7.01-14	5.32-9	1.00-3	0.00-1
Nah'Shon HylandGuard	at MIA	13	6.92-15	1.50-4	2.21-4	1.30-3
Terance MannGuard	vs CHA	24	6.91-13	2.91-6	2.91-6	0.80-2
Jamal SheadGuard	vs CHI	23	6.81-14	1.80-4	5.73-9	1.00-2
Svi MykhailiukGuard	at MEM	16	6.71-14	1.80-4	1.30-3	1.40-3
Kyle AndersonForward	vs CHIvs bottom-5 defense	20	6.61-13	3.61-7	3.11-6	0.10-1
Oso IghodaroForward	at PORvs top-5 defense	22	6.31-13	4.92-9	2.20-4	0.00-1
Drake PowellForward	vs CHA	21	6.31-13	1.60-4	1.40-3	0.80-2
Kris MurrayForward	vs UTA	23	6.11-13	3.81-7	1.60-4	0.60-2
Justin ChampagnieForward	vs MIL	14	6.01-14	3.81-8	0.90-2	0.50-2
Leonard MillerForward	at TOR	11	5.71-13	2.91-6	0.60-2	0.50-2
Dylan CardwellCenter	at LAC	21	5.40-12	7.43-12	1.40-3	0.00-1
Bryce McGowensGuard	vs INDvs bottom-5 defense	13	5.11-12	1.30-4	0.90-2	0.50-2
Sidy CissokoGuard	vs PHXvs top-5 defense	19	5.10-11	2.20-5	1.50-3	0.80-2
Steven AdamsCenter	vs DALvs bottom-5 defense	18	4.80-11	7.03-12	1.40-3	0.00-1
Matisse ThybulleGuard	vs GSWvs bottom-5 defense	13	4.60-12	1.50-4	0.70-2	1.00-2
Sion JamesGuard	at BKN	20	4.60-10	3.00-6	1.80-4	0.90-2
Jalen PickettGuard	vs SAC	15	4.60-11	2.00-5	2.11-4	0.90-2
Moussa CisseCenter	at HOU	14	4.50-11	5.62-10	0.20-2	0.00-1
Jarred VanderbiltForward	vs GSWvs top-5 defense	18	4.50-10	4.51-8	1.30-3	0.40-2
Keon EllisGuard	vs CHA	14	4.40-11	1.20-3	0.70-2	0.80-2
Robert Williams IIICenter	vs PHXvs bottom-5 defense	11	4.30-11	4.52-9	0.70-2	0.10-1
Caleb MartinForward	at HOU	16	4.10-11	2.50-6	1.40-3	0.30-1
Will RichardGuard	at LAL	12	3.90-10	1.50-4	0.80-2	0.60-2
Dwight PowellForward	at HOU	15	3.50-10	4.31-9	1.10-3	0.00-1

Small numbers under each projection are the 80% range. Defense chips rank the opponent on points allowed per 100 possessions to his position group: bottom-5 means one of the five most generous. 204 players shown.

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Projection 31.8 (80% range 19-44). Type the line from your sportsbook to see the over and under chances.

One game is noisy: even a good projection misses by several points most nights. Add it to a parlay.

02Track record

2025-26 backtest

No projected games are final yet. Here is how the model did replaying 2025-26.

2025-26 backtest: average miss per player game

Stat	This model	Season average	Last 10 average	Gain vs season avg	Inside 80% range
Points	4.58	4.69	4.66	2.2%	80%
Rebounds	1.88	1.91	1.93	1.6%	81%
Assists	1.35	1.37	1.37	1.3%	80%
Threes made	0.89	0.90	0.91	1.1%	80%
Minutes	5.03	5.43	5.12	7.4%	n/a

Lower is better. Season and last-10 averages are the simple guesses the model has to beat.

How this works

The method

Two steps. First we project minutes from a player's minutes per game this season, over his last 10 games and over his last 5 (the last 5 count the most), plus home court and the second night of a back-to-back. Then each stat is his per-minute rate (season, last 10 and last 5) times those minutes, adjusted for the opponent and the pace.

The opponent adjustment compares how many points, rebounds, assists and threes the opponent allows per 100 possessions to his position group (guards, forwards or centers) with the league. Early in a season it leans on last season's number. An opponent that allows 10% more points to his position adds about 2.1% to his points. A game 3% faster than average adds about 5.5%.

The weights were fit by least squares on 24,874 player games from 2025-26. The 80% ranges come from how far real results landed from the projection in testing, grouped by projected minutes.

How we tested it

We replayed 2025-26 from Mon, Dec 1 to Sun, Apr 12, refitting on the first of each month using only earlier games, and projected 19,968 player games. The average miss on points was 4.58, against 4.69 for his season average and 4.66 for his last-10 average. The gain is small, but it held for every stat, and 80% of real point totals landed inside the 80% range.

A gradient boosting model on the same inputs missed by 4.65 points, so we kept the simpler model. It runs inside our database every morning.

What it cannot see

Injuries, rest days, who starts and trades after the morning update. It projects every active player as if he plays, and it is graded only on players who did. Minutes are the biggest source of error: had we known each player's real minutes, the average miss on points would have been 3.74 instead of 4.58. Blowouts cut starters' minutes and are not predicted.

Until a player has 5 games in a season, his projection uses last season's per-minute numbers and his expected minutes on his current roster (last season's minutes handed out down the depth chart). That early-season mode could not be tested, because our data starts in 2025-26. Rookies without NBA games get no projection, and neither do players with fewer than 20 games last season (a few games is too small a sample) until they play this season (Decision #87).

Updated every morning for the next seven days of games. Once a game tips off its projections are frozen, and those frozen numbers are what we grade.