Betting tools
Model leans
Games where our model and the sportsbooks disagree, with every lean's result on the record. Plus model vs line for every game and a parlay builder.
Analysis, not advice. Our numbers are model estimates and can be wrong; no bet is a sure thing. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal. Set a budget you can afford to lose. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
01Model leans
Leans start once teams have played about 20 games. Until then our model runs on last season's ratings and this summer's roster moves, and it disagrees with the books far more than a real edge would (sometimes by 30 points), so we don't publish picks from it. Model vs line below still shows where it stands.
02Track record
- Record
- 0-0
- Units
- +0.0
- Return per bet
- –
- Moneyline / spread
- 0-0 / 0-0
Every lean is frozen at tip-off at the price shown and graded after the final, 1 unit per lean. Nothing is removed after the fact. A good record over a few dozen bets can still be luck; judge it over hundreds.
03Model vs line
Preseason model. Big gaps here mostly mean our model hasn't caught up with offseason changes yet, not that the books are wrong.
| Game | Tip | Book ML (home) | Book win % | Our win % | Edge | Kalshi win % | Polymarket win % | Spread (home) | Our cover % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS at DET | Tue, Oct 20, 3:00 PM ET | -116 / -2 | 96.5% | 61.6% | -34.9 pts | 50.0% | 51.0% | -1.5 | 54.3% | 221.5 |
| PHI at NYK | Tue, Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET | -198 / +162 | 63.5% | 81.5% | +18.0 pts | 63.1% | 63.5% | -5.5 | 64.6% | 231.75 |
| OKC at SAS | Tue, Oct 20, 9:30 PM ET | -131 / +110 | 54.4% | 58.9% | +4.6 pts | 54.5% | 55.0% | -2.5 | 49.2% | 231 |
| ATL at ORL | Wed, Oct 21, 7:00 PM ET | -136 / +112 | 55.0% | 62.2% | +7.2 pts | 58.7% | 58.5% | -2.5 | 52.1% | 233.5 |
| MIL at WAS | Wed, Oct 21, 7:00 PM ET | -225 / +184 | 66.3% | 41.3% | -25.0 pts | 68.7% | 67.5% | -6.5 | 24.7% | 238.5 |
| MIN at MIA | Wed, Oct 21, 7:30 PM ET | -122 / +104 | 52.9% | 58.1% | +5.2 pts | 52.3% | 44.5% | -1.5 | 51.2% | 243.5 |
| CHA at BKN | Wed, Oct 21, 7:30 PM ET | +110 / -131 | 45.6% | 22.3% | -23.4 pts | 46.0% | 46.0% | +2.5 | 29.4% | 222.25 |
| CHI at TOR | Wed, Oct 21, 7:30 PM ET | -348 / +275 | 74.4% | 86.2% | +11.7 pts | 75.5% | 64.5% | -8.5 | 63.8% | 235.5 |
| UTA at MEM | Wed, Oct 21, 8:00 PM ET | +110 / -132 | 45.6% | 55.7% | +10.2 pts | 46.5% | 47.5% | +2.5 | 60.1% | 243.5 |
| IND at NOP | Wed, Oct 21, 8:00 PM ET | +132 / -160 | 41.2% | 65.2% | +24.0 pts | 40.7% | 41.5% | +3.5 | 70.5% | 242.75 |
| DAL at HOU | Wed, Oct 21, 8:30 PM ET | -305 / +248 | 72.4% | 83.9% | +11.5 pts | 74.5% | 74.5% | -8.5 | 60.1% | 228 |
| GSW at LAL | Wed, Oct 21, 10:00 PM ET | -193 / +160 | 63.1% | 70.8% | +7.7 pts | 64.8% | 51.5% | -5.5 | 52.1% | 235.5 |
| PHX at POR | Wed, Oct 21, 10:00 PM ET | -161 / +136 | 59.3% | 53.5% | -5.7 pts | 59.7% | 60.5% | -4.5 | 39.1% | 234.75 |
| SAC at LAC | Wed, Oct 21, 10:30 PM ET | -155 / +130 | 58.3% | 73.2% | +14.9 pts | 58.5% | 57.0% | -4.5 | 57.3% | 230.5 |
| CLE at PHI | Thu, Oct 22, 7:00 PM ET | -155 / +130 | 58.3% | 46.8% | -11.5 pts | – | 52.0% | -3.5 | 36.4% | 234.25 |
| DEN at OKC | Thu, Oct 22, 9:30 PM ET | -286 / +225 | 70.7% | 77.0% | +6.4 pts | – | 62.5% | -7.5 | 53.7% | 234 |
Book win % removes the sportsbook's cut from the consensus moneyline. Example: -150 / +130 imply 60.0% and 43.5% (103.5% in total), so the fair split is 58.0% / 42.0%. Edge is our win % minus that. Cover % uses our projected margin with a spread of 14.4 points, from our margin error on 2025-26. Totals are shown without a model number. Kalshi win % is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask for each team, scaled so both teams add to 100%; tap it to open the market on Kalshi. Prices come from US-licensed sportsbooks only.
04How leans work
A moneyline lean needs our win chance to beat the no-vig book number by at least 4 points (6+ is a strong lean). A spread lean needs our cover chance at the consensus line to reach 54% (57%+ is strong); at -110 you need 52.4% just to break even. Leans update with the lines until tip-off, then freeze.
Leans only run once both teams have played 20 games. Before that the model leans on last season's ratings and this season's rosters, which we have not been able to test, and its gaps with the books are mostly its own error. Win probability accuracy and calibration are on the win probability page.
Building a parlay? The parlay builder shows the real payout next to our chance of hitting it. Player props: check any line against our projection on the projections page.