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Thu, Oct 22 · 9:30 PM ET

NuggetsatThunder

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Model vs the line

Betting tools
OKC win: books
70.7%
OKC win: Courtside
77.0%
OKC -7.5 covers
53.7%
OKC win: Polymarket
67.5%
Total (no model yet)
234

No lean on this game. Leans start once both teams have played 20 games, and then only when our number is well away from the books'. Early in the season a big gap usually means our model is behind. How leans work.

Consensus of 4 US sportsbooks, updated 10:40 AM ET. Build a parlay.

Bet it atDraftKingsFanDuelPolymarket

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Analysis, not advice. Our numbers are model estimates and can be wrong; no bet is a sure thing. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal. Set a budget you can afford to lose. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

01Where the edges are

Based on 2025-26

Nuggets edges

No clear mismatch in Denver's favor.

Thunder edges

  • On offenseOklahoma City's offense protects the ball (2nd) against a Denver defense that rarely forces turnovers (30th).

Key battles

  • Denver's offense shoots efficiently (1st), but Oklahoma City's defense contests every shot (2nd). Watch the shooting.
  • Denver's offense protects the ball (3rd), but Oklahoma City's defense forces turnovers (2nd). Watch the turnovers.
  • Denver's offense gets to the line (4th), but Oklahoma City's defense defends without fouling (3rd). Watch the free throws.

An edge is where one team ranks top 5 on a four-factor battle and the other ranks bottom 8. How edges work

Using last season's numbers until both teams have played 10 games this season. Rosters may have changed.

02Tale of the tape

Based on 2025-26
DENRankStatRankOKC
123.41stOffensive rating7th119.8
118.221stDefensive rating1st108.5
+5.27thNet rating1st+11.2
97.720thPace16th98.5
57.71stEffective FG %4th56.1
10.93rdTurnover %2nd10.8
23.624thOffensive rebound %28th22.3
23.74thFree throw rate13th21.3
54.314thOpponent eFG %2nd51.9
10.030thForced turnover %2nd14.0
75.37thDefensive rebound %11th74.4
19.610thOpponent FT rate3rd18.4

Game plan

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03Form and season series

Nuggets6-4 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W

Thunder6-4 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W

2025-26 series: Sun, Feb 1 OKC 121, DEN 111 · Fri, Feb 27 DEN 121, OKC 127 · Mon, Mar 9 DEN 126, OKC 129 · Fri, Apr 10 OKC 107, DEN 127

04Key players

Current roster · 2025-26 numbers