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Game plans

Wednesday, November 4

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Bucks at Celtics

How the Bucks beat the Celtics

  1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Bucks shoot 36.9% from above the break (2nd), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
  2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Bucks defense there ranks 26th (36.4% allowed).
  3. AttackAttack midrange12.6% of Bucks shots come from midrange (3rd most), and the Celtics allow 42.5% there (21st of 30).
  4. TempoPush the paceThe Bucks play at 96.8 possessions per 48 minutes (23rd in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
  5. Key scorerKey scorer: Jayson TatumTatum (21.8 points per game): best from above the break (31% on 131 shots, league 35%), worst at the rim (62%, league 66%).

How the Celtics beat the Bucks

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
  2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Celtics defense there ranks 2nd (36.2% allowed).
  3. AttackAttack the corner 3The Celtics shoot 41.8% from the corners (4th), and the Bucks allow 41.1% there (29th of 30).
  4. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Bucks allow 36.4% there (26th of 30).
  5. AttackAttack the rimThe Celtics shoot 70.5% at the rim (2nd), and the Bucks allow 68.5% there (25th of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMIL offenseBOS defenseBOS offenseMIL defense
At the rim68.7% (5th)64.8% (7th)70.5% (2nd)68.5% (25th)
Paint42.7% (23rd)41.4% (4th)48.2% (3rd)41.1% (3rd)
Midrange42.3% (12th)42.5% (21st)39.9% (21st)42.0% (15th)
Corner 342.9% (2nd)36.2% (2nd)41.8% (4th)41.1% (29th)
Above-the-break 336.9% (2nd)35.7% (24th)35.6% (10th)36.4% (26th)

02Matchups on Wed, Nov 4

14 games
  • 76ers at Pistons7:00 PM ET

    How the 76ers beat the Pistons

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd) and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    How the Pistons beat the 76ers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hawks at Wizards7:00 PM ET

    How the Hawks beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the corner 311.7% of Hawks shots come from the corners (8th most), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th), and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).

    How the Wizards beat the Hawks

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th) and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bucks at Celtics7:30 PM ET

    How the Bucks beat the Celtics

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Bucks shoot 36.9% from above the break (2nd), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Bucks defense there ranks 26th (36.4% allowed).

    How the Celtics beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Celtics defense there ranks 2nd (36.2% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hornets at Nets7:30 PM ET

    How the Hornets beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Hornets shoot 42.8% from the corners (3rd), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).

    How the Nets beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Nets defense there ranks 28th (36.4% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon MillerMiller (20.2 points per game): best from the corners (42% on 71 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (37%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at Knicks7:30 PM ET

    How the Bulls beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Knicks at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Knicks beat the Bulls

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Knicks play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Knicks shoot 44.9% from midrange (2nd), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pacers at Grizzlies8:00 PM ET

    How the Pacers beat the Grizzlies

    1. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Pacers defense there ranks 27th (47.1% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Ty JeromeJerome (19.7 points per game): best in the paint (53% on 64 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%). 40% on the left side, 47% on the right; push him left.

    How the Grizzlies beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Jazz at Pelicans8:00 PM ET

    How the Jazz beat the Pelicans

    1. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.

    How the Pelicans beat the Jazz

    1. AttackAttack the rim40.4% of Pelicans shots come at the rim (1st most), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Cavaliers at Thunder8:00 PM ET

    How the Cavaliers beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.3% of Cavaliers shots come from above the break (7th most), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).

    How the Thunder beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Thunder shoot 35.9% from above the break (8th), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Timberwolves at Rockets8:30 PM ET

    How the Timberwolves beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Timberwolves defense there ranks 8th (42.9% allowed).

    How the Rockets beat the Timberwolves

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Timberwolves at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Raptors at Nuggets9:00 PM ET

    How the Raptors beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Nuggets defense there ranks 27th (69.1% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at Suns9:00 PM ET

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Suns

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd) and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
    2. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd), and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).

    How the Suns beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd), and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd) and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at Spurs9:30 PM ET

    How the Mavericks beat the Spurs

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    How the Spurs beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Spurs shoot 43.6% from midrange (7th), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Spurs shoot 45.7% in the paint (10th), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at Kings10:00 PM ET

    How the Lakers beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).

    How the Kings beat the Lakers

    1. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at Clippers10:30 PM ET

    How the Heat beat the Clippers

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    How the Clippers beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.