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Game plans

Sunday, March 29

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Pistons at Thunder

How the Pistons beat the Thunder

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).

How the Thunder beat the Pistons

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneDET offenseOKC defenseOKC offenseDET defense
At the rim66.3% (15th)60.1% (1st)67.2% (10th)61.9% (2nd)
Paint42.0% (24th)39.9% (1st)46.1% (7th)43.8% (12th)
Midrange41.9% (15th)38.0% (1st)48.1% (1st)39.7% (5th)
Corner 337.3% (20th)39.9% (24th)38.1% (17th)38.5% (11th)
Above-the-break 334.8% (19th)35.6% (23rd)35.9% (8th)33.1% (1st)

02Matchups on Sun, Mar 29

9 games
  • Clippers at BucksFinal

    How the Clippers beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Clippers defense there ranks 15th (38.8% allowed).

    How the Bucks beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Bucks shoot 36.9% from above the break (2nd), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at PacersFinal

    How the Heat beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.

    How the Pacers beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Kings at NetsFinal

    How the Kings beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Nets allow 46.6% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).

    How the Nets beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.9% of Nets shots come from above the break (6th most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Nets defense there ranks 25th (46.6% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at HornetsFinal

    How the Celtics beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Celtics defense there ranks 24th (35.7% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon MillerMiller (20.2 points per game): best from the corners (42% on 71 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (37%, league 42%).

    How the Hornets beat the Celtics

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Hornets defense there ranks 17th (35.1% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at RaptorsFinal

    How the Magic beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Magic defense there ranks 21st (67.5% allowed).

    How the Raptors beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Wizards at Trail BlazersFinal

    How the Wizards beat the Trail Blazers

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd) and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Trail Blazers force turnovers on 13.0% of plays (7th) and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Wizards

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd), and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 312.2% of Trail Blazers shots come from the corners (5th most), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at PelicansFinal

    How the Rockets beat the Pelicans

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st), and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).

    How the Pelicans beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st) and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Knicks at ThunderFinal

    How the Knicks beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most), and the Thunder allow 39.9% there (24th of 30).

    How the Thunder beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Thunder defense there ranks 24th (39.9% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at NuggetsFinal

    How the Warriors beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.