Last season (2025-26)
Players whose game really moved: more minutes, a bigger role, a new shot diet. Each change comes with the likely reason and how much of it should hold.
The 2026-27 season does not have enough games yet, so this shows 2025-26: each player's last 25 games (or his games since a role change or a trade) against the rest of his season. Once players have about 20 games this season, the page switches to this season by itself.
Gill's playing time is up 21.0 minutes a game over his 32 games since Feb 1 (26.2 vs 5.2). Most of it is a teammate's absence: CJ McCollum (31 MPG before) left the team, plus 2 more key players out. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Santos's playing time is up 18.3 minutes a game over his 32 games since Jan 26 (30.1 vs 11.8). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Jimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 35 games, plus 1 more key player out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Rupert's playing time is up 18.9 minutes a game over his 16 games with MEM (30.9 vs 12.0). Much of it is the starting role change: he started 8 of 16 games, up from 0 of 48, after his move to MEM. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Riley's playing time is up 16.0 minutes a game over his 36 games since Jan 30 (30.3 vs 14.3). Most of it is a teammate's absence: CJ McCollum (31 MPG before) left the team, plus 2 more key players out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Miller's playing time is up 18.1 minutes a game over his 27 games with CHI (23.1 vs 5.1). Much of it is the starting role change: he started 12 of 27 games, up from 0 of 19, after his move to CHI. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Brown's playing time is up 16.1 minutes a game over his 27 games with IND (24.8 vs 8.7). The likely reason: he moved from LAC to IND (first game Feb 10). Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Yabusele's playing time is up 15.7 minutes a game over his 26 games with CHI (24.6 vs 8.9). Most of it is the starting role change: he started 19 of 26 games, up from 0 of 41, after his move to CHI. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Dieng's playing time is up 15.9 minutes a game over his 30 games with MIL (26.9 vs 10.9). Most of it is the starting role change: he started 20 of 30 games, up from 0 of 27, after his move to MIL. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Santos's scoring is up 11.4 points a game over his 32 games since Jan 26 (15.2 vs 3.8). Much of it is playing time: his minutes went from 11.8 to 30.1 a game, with Jimmy Butler out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Williams's playing time is up 15.0 minutes a game over his 19 games since Mar 5 (35.1 vs 20.1). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Lauri Markkanen (34 MPG before) missed all 20 games, plus 4 more key players out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Nance's playing time is up 16.4 minutes a game over his 13 games since Mar 17 (27.5 vs 11.0). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Kevin Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 1 of 13 games, plus 2 more key players out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Riley's scoring is up 10.1 points a game over his 36 games since Jan 30 (15.5 vs 5.4). Much of it is playing time: his minutes went from 14.3 to 30.3 a game, with CJ McCollum gone. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Williams's scoring is up 10.6 points a game over his 19 games since Mar 5 (16.4 vs 5.8). Much of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 10.1 to 15.8, with Lauri Markkanen out. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Sensabaugh's scoring is up 9.4 points a game over his 44 games since Jan 1 (18.9 vs 9.5). The likely reason: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 50 games, plus 3 more key players out. Also playing time: his minutes went from 19.0 to 27.1 a game. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Santos's 3-point rate is down 20 points over his 32 games since Jan 26 (44% vs 64%). The likely reason: Jimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 35 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 27 of 32 games, up from 3 of 36. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Sims's playing time is up 11.6 minutes a game over his 34 games since Feb 3 (25.6 vs 14.1). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Giannis Antetokounmpo (29 MPG before) played only 6 of 35 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Fleming's playing time is up 12.1 minutes a game over his 26 games since Feb 11 (18.7 vs 6.6). Much of it is a teammate's absence: Dillon Brooks (31 MPG before) played only 8 of 28 games. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Prosper's playing time is up 12.3 minutes a game over his 30 games since Jan 31 (24.1 vs 11.8). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Jaren Jackson Jr. (31 MPG before) left the team, plus 3 more key players out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Konchar's playing time is up 11.6 minutes a game over his 26 games with UTA (26.2 vs 14.6). The likely reason: he moved from MEM to UTA (first game Feb 7). Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Eason's TS% is down 12.2 points over his last 25 games of the season (44.1% vs 56.3%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 14.4 points below what his shot spots predict (0.6 points below before). Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Wilson's 3-point rate is down 24 points over his 12 games since Mar 10 (40% vs 63%). The likely reason: Michael Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 1 of 18 games, plus 2 more key players out. Also a new teammate: Malachi Smith joined the rotation on Mar 14 and played 23.9 MPG. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Edwards's 3-point rate is down 19 points over his last 25 games of the season (47% vs 66%). The likely reason: Joel Embiid (31 MPG before) played only 7 of 30 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Cain's playing time is up 12.5 minutes a game over his 17 games since Mar 14 (19.6 vs 7.2). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Anthony Black (31 MPG before) played only 4 of 17 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Prosper's scoring is up 9.1 points a game over his 30 games since Jan 31 (14.0 vs 5.0). Much of it is playing time: his minutes went from 11.8 to 24.1 a game, with Jaren Jackson Jr. gone. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Miller's scoring is up 9.4 points a game over his 27 games with CHI (11.7 vs 2.3). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 5.1 to 23.1 a game, after his move to CHI. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Achiuwa's scoring is up 8.6 points a game over his 25 games since Feb 19 (15.7 vs 7.1). The likely reason: Zach LaVine (31 MPG before) missed all 26 games, plus 4 more key players out. Also playing time: his minutes went from 20.3 to 30.9 a game. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Martin's playing time is up 10.8 minutes a game over his 27 games since Jan 10 (20.6 vs 9.8). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Anthony Davis (31 MPG before) missed all 30 games, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Achiuwa's playing time is up 10.6 minutes a game over his 25 games since Feb 19 (30.9 vs 20.3). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Zach LaVine (31 MPG before) missed all 26 games, plus 4 more key players out. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Jackson's scoring is up 8.8 points a game over his 32 games since Jan 26 (16.3 vs 7.5). The likely reason: Ja Morant (28 MPG before) missed all 36 games, plus 3 more key players out. Also playing time: his minutes went from 16.4 to 25.4 a game. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Reid's TS% is down 10.2 points over his last 25 games of the season (49.5% vs 59.7%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 6.1 points below what his shot spots predict (4.3 points above before), after Ayo Dosunmu joined the rotation. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Rupert's scoring is up 9.3 points a game over his 16 games with MEM (12.2 vs 2.9). Much of it is playing time: his minutes went from 12.0 to 30.9 a game, after his move to MEM. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Williams's midrange share is up 19 points over his 19 games since Mar 5 (22% vs 4%). The likely reason: Lauri Markkanen (34 MPG before) missed all 20 games, plus 4 more key players out. Also the starting role change: he started 19 of 19 games, up from 22 of 48. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Mathurin's 3-point rate is down 18 points over his 26 games with LAC (26% vs 44%). The likely reason: he moved from IND to LAC (first game Feb 10). Also the starting role change: he started 1 of 26 games, down from 24 of 28. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Thompson's TS% is up 8.3 points over his last 25 games of the season (65.0% vs 56.7%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 3.3 points above what his shot spots predict (4.0 points below before). Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Prosper's above-the-break 3 share is up 19 points over his 30 games since Jan 31 (30% vs 11%). The likely reason: Jaren Jackson Jr. (31 MPG before) left the team, plus 3 more key players out. Also the starting role change: he started 24 of 30 games, up from 0 of 22. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Bailey's scoring is up 7.2 points a game over his 39 games since Jan 15 (17.1 vs 9.9). The likely reason: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 42 games, plus 3 more key players out. Also shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 14.6 to 18.4. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Wells's TS% is up 9.1 points over his last 25 games of the season (61.8% vs 52.7%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 4.9 points above what his shot spots predict (4.5 points below before), with Ja Morant out. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Yabusele's scoring is up 7.3 points a game over his 26 games with CHI (10.0 vs 2.7). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 8.9 to 24.6 a game, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Hendricks's playing time is up 9.1 minutes a game over his 26 games with MEM (24.1 vs 15.0). The likely reason: he moved from UTA to MEM (first game Feb 6). Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Watkins's playing time is up 9.7 minutes a game over his 29 games since Jan 30 (25.0 vs 15.3). Most of it is a teammate's absence: CJ McCollum (31 MPG before) left the team, plus 2 more key players out. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Dieng's scoring is up 7.3 points a game over his 30 games with MIL (11.0 vs 3.7). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 10.9 to 26.9 a game, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Wilson's above-the-break 3 share is down 20 points over his 12 games since Mar 10 (25% vs 45%). The likely reason: Michael Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 1 of 18 games, plus 2 more key players out. Also a new teammate: Malachi Smith joined the rotation on Mar 14 and played 23.9 MPG. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Carter Jr.'s 3-point rate is down 15 points over his last 25 games of the season (25% vs 40%). The likely reason: Franz Wagner (32 MPG before) played only 6 of 27 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Jackson's playing time is up 9.0 minutes a game over his 32 games since Jan 26 (25.4 vs 16.4). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Ja Morant (28 MPG before) missed all 36 games, plus 3 more key players out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Cunningham's scoring is down 10.3 points a game over his 8 games since Mar 10 (14.9 vs 25.2). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 35.2 to 25.3 a game. Also shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 23.0 to 17.5. Partly real: about half should hold.
Flagg's usage is up 7.7 points over his 33 games since Jan 10 (31.2% vs 23.5%). The likely reason: Anthony Davis (31 MPG before) missed all 44 games. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Sensabaugh's playing time is up 8.1 minutes a game over his 44 games since Jan 1 (27.1 vs 19.0). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 50 games, plus 3 more key players out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Porter Jr.'s TS% is down 7.2 points over his last 25 games of the season (55.7% vs 63.0%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 2.5 points below what his shot spots predict (5.6 points above before), with Cam Thomas gone. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Bailey's playing time is up 7.9 minutes a game over his 39 games since Jan 15 (31.1 vs 23.3). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 42 games, plus 3 more key players out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Marshall's TS% is down 7.3 points over his 36 games since Jan 10 (56.1% vs 63.4%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 0.7 points below what his shot spots predict (3.7 points above before), with Anthony Davis out. Also shot diet: his short paint share of shots went from 31% to 43%. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Gill's scoring is up 6.8 points a game over his 32 games since Feb 1 (8.7 vs 1.9). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 5.2 to 26.2 a game, with CJ McCollum gone. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Peavy's playing time is up 12.0 minutes a game over his 8 games since Mar 27 (25.4 vs 13.4). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Trey Murphy III (35 MPG before) played only 2 of 8 games, plus 1 more key player out. Partly real: about half should hold.
Embiid's TS% is up 7.6 points over his 22 games since Jan 5 (63.4% vs 55.8%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 3.9 points above what his shot spots predict (3.3 points below before), with Paul George out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Jones's 3-point rate is down 16 points over his 19 games since Feb 4 (43% vs 59%). The likely reason: Peyton Watson (31 MPG before) played only 5 of 25 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 4 of 19 games, down from 33 of 44. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Buzelis's above-the-break 3 share is up 14 points over his 46 games since Dec 29 (42% vs 28%). The likely reason: Coby White (29 MPG before) left the team, plus 3 more key players out. Also a new teammate: Collin Sexton joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 25.9 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Brown's scoring is up 6.4 points a game over his 27 games with IND (9.4 vs 2.9). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 8.7 to 24.8 a game, after his move to IND. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Hauser's above-the-break 3 share is down 13 points over his 43 games since Jan 7 (62% vs 76%). The likely reason: he started 42 of 43 games, up from 7 of 35. Also a new teammate: Jayson Tatum joined the rotation on Mar 6 and played 32.6 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Wilson's playing time is up 9.6 minutes a game over his 12 games since Mar 10 (23.4 vs 13.8). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Michael Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 1 of 18 games, plus 2 more key players out. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Watkins's scoring is up 6.7 points a game over his 29 games since Jan 30 (10.2 vs 3.6). Much of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 8.0 to 13.1, with CJ McCollum gone. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Potter's 3-point rate is down 15 points over his 27 games since Feb 10 (53% vs 68%). The likely reason: Bennedict Mathurin (32 MPG before) left the team, plus 2 more key players out. Also a new teammate: Kobe Brown joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 24.8 MPG. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Every night we split each player's regular season (8+ games on each side) in one of three ways, in this order: the day he joined a new team; the game after which his minutes and usage shifted the most (a simple two-part split); or, if neither moved much, his last 10 games. Until the new season has enough games (about 20 each for most players) we use last season and its last 25 games, which catches the roles that changed at the trade deadline.
A change counts as big when it reaches:
Players need 15+ minutes a game on one side. Shooting needs 40+ threes or 60+ shots on each side.
Both windows are pulled toward the player's whole season by a fixed amount of weight M, the sample size where a stat is half skill and half luck: (window x n + season x M) / (n + M). A change is shown only if the pulled gap keeps at least half of the raw gap: Probably real keeps 60% or more, Partly real keeps 50 to 59%, anything less is Mostly noise and stays off the feed.
M values: 3P% 501 threes, TS% 218 shots and points 9.7 games, from Is it real?; minutes 9.4, usage 17, assists 18.9, rebounds 18.1, 3-point rate 13.9, rim share 18.2, midrange 16.8, corner 3 21.6 and above the break 15.4 games, measured on 1,766 pairs of back-to-back 10-game stretches in 2025-26. That is why 3P% changes almost never make it: threes are mostly luck until a player has taken hundreds.
Rules, each with a number. Points split exactly into minutes, shot volume and efficiency. Assists and rebounds split into minutes and per-minute rate. TS% and 3P% split into shot diet (league FG% from the spots he shot from) and shot-making (the rest). Context: a new team, a move into or out of the starting five (starting lineups from our stint data), key teammates (25+ minutes before) who missed most of the window, a new rotation player (20+ minutes), and opponents' defensive rating. We keep causes that explain 15%+ of the change and show the top three.
Backtest on 2025-26: we ran this as if the season stopped on 3 dates and checked each flag against the rest of the season. Probably real changes kept 71% of their size on average (we predicted 66%) and 88% kept going the same way (301 flags). Partly real kept 60% (predicted 55%). Mostly noise kept 39% (predicted 33%), so the pull is a little cautious, which is the safe side.
Latest run: 393 players checked, 447 probably real and 180 partly real changes, and 273 big swings left out as mostly noise.
Injuries a player played through, coaching decisions, matchups and schemes, and anything off the box score. Missing teammates are read from who played, not the injury report. Causes are rough splits, not proof; when nothing in our data fits we say so.
