What changed?

Brook LopezC · LACProbably real

33 games since Feb 4 vs the 42 games before

Lopez's 3-point rate is down 25 points over his 33 games since Feb 4 (47% vs 72%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

• Teammate outJames Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
• Starting roleHe started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42
• New teammateBennedict Mathurin joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 28.0 MPG

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Nick RichardsC · CHIProbably real

20 games with CHI vs the 27 games before

Richards's playing time is up 12.8 minutes a game over his 20 games with CHI (22.3 vs 9.5). The likely reason: he moved from PHX to CHI (first game Feb 7). Probably real: about 70% should hold.

• New teamHe moved from PHX to CHI (first game Feb 7)

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Brook LopezC · LACProbably real

33 games since Feb 4 vs the 42 games before

Lopez's above-the-break 3 share is down 19 points over his 33 games since Feb 4 (41% vs 60%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

• Teammate outJames Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
• Starting roleHe started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42
• New teammateBennedict Mathurin joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 28.0 MPG

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Brook LopezC · LACProbably real

33 games since Feb 4 vs the 42 games before

Lopez's playing time is up 10.4 minutes a game over his 33 games since Feb 4 (27.6 vs 17.2). Most of it is a teammate's absence: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

• Teammate outJames Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out (about 100% of the change)
• Starting roleHe started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42 (about 91% of the change)

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Naz ReidF-C · MINProbably real

Last 25 games of the season vs the 52 games before

Reid's TS% is down 10.2 points over his last 25 games of the season (49.5% vs 59.7%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 6.1 points below what his shot spots predict (4.3 points above before), after Ayo Dosunmu joined the rotation. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

• Shot-makingHis TS% was 6.1 points below what his shot spots predict (4.3 points above before) (about 100% of the change)
• New teammateAyo Dosunmu joined the rotation on Feb 8 and played 28.9 MPG

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Karl-Anthony TownsC · NYKProbably real

Last 25 games of the season vs the 50 games before

Towns's TS% is up 8.6 points over his last 25 games of the season (67.8% vs 59.2%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 4.5 points above what his shot spots predict (4.5 points below before), with Miles McBride out. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

• Shot-makingHis TS% was 4.5 points above what his shot spots predict (4.5 points below before) (about 100% of the change)
• Teammate outMiles McBride (28 MPG before) played only 5 of 27 games

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Maxime RaynaudC · SACProbably real

28 games since Feb 9 vs the 46 games before

Raynaud's scoring is up 7.4 points a game over his 28 games since Feb 9 (17.1 vs 9.7). Much of it is playing time: his minutes went from 23.1 to 32.2 a game, with Zach LaVine out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

• MinutesHis minutes went from 23.1 to 32.2 a game (about 51% of the change)
• Teammate outZach LaVine (31 MPG before) missed all 28 games, plus 4 more key players out
• Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 12.7 to 14.8 (about 31% of the change)

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Lachlan OlbrichC · CHIPartly real

9 games since Mar 28 vs the 28 games before

Olbrich's playing time is up 12.9 minutes a game over his 9 games since Mar 28 (19.1 vs 6.2). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Nikola Vucevic (31 MPG before) left the team, plus 4 more key players out. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

• Teammate outNikola Vucevic (31 MPG before) left the team, plus 4 more key players out (about 100% of the change)

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Maxime RaynaudC · SACProbably real

28 games since Feb 9 vs the 46 games before

Raynaud's playing time is up 9.1 minutes a game over his 28 games since Feb 9 (32.2 vs 23.1). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Zach LaVine (31 MPG before) missed all 28 games, plus 4 more key players out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

• Teammate outZach LaVine (31 MPG before) missed all 28 games, plus 4 more key players out (about 100% of the change)

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Nikola VucevicC · BOSProbably real

16 games with BOS vs the 48 games before

Vucevic's playing time is down 9.7 minutes a game over his 16 games with BOS (21.2 vs 30.9). Most of it is the starting role change: he started 1 of 16 games, down from 48 of 48, after his move to BOS. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

• Starting roleHe started 1 of 16 games, down from 48 of 48 (about 96% of the change)
• New teamHe moved from CHI to BOS (first game Feb 6)

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Brook LopezC · LACProbably real

33 games since Feb 4 vs the 42 games before

Lopez's rim share is up 15 points over his 33 games since Feb 4 (25% vs 10%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

• Teammate outJames Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
• Starting roleHe started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42
• New teammateBennedict Mathurin joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 28.0 MPG

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Joel EmbiidF-C · PHIProbably real

22 games since Jan 5 vs the 16 games before

Embiid's TS% is up 7.6 points over his 22 games since Jan 5 (63.4% vs 55.8%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 3.9 points above what his shot spots predict (3.3 points below before), with Paul George out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

• Shot-makingHis TS% was 3.9 points above what his shot spots predict (3.3 points below before) (about 95% of the change)
• Teammate outPaul George (29 MPG before) played only 17 of 46 games

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Nikola VucevicC · BOSProbably real

16 games with BOS vs the 48 games before

Vucevic's scoring is down 7.2 points a game over his 16 games with BOS (9.7 vs 16.9). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 30.9 to 21.2 a game, after he moved to the bench. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

• MinutesHis minutes went from 30.9 to 21.2 a game (about 74% of the change)
• Starting roleHe started 1 of 16 games, down from 48 of 48 (about 71% of the change)
• New teamHe moved from CHI to BOS (first game Feb 6)

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Jalen SmithF-C · CHIProbably real

29 games since Dec 26 vs the 24 games before

Smith's playing time is up 7.8 minutes a game over his 29 games since Dec 26 (24.1 vs 16.3). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Coby White (29 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

• Teammate outCoby White (29 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out (about 100% of the change)
• Starting roleHe started 21 of 29 games, up from 0 of 24 (about 60% of the change)

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Joel EmbiidF-C · PHIProbably real

22 games since Jan 5 vs the 16 games before

Embiid's scoring is up 7.0 points a game over his 22 games since Jan 5 (29.8 vs 22.8). Much of it is playing time: his minutes went from 28.5 to 33.7 a game, with Paul George out. Also shooting efficiency: his TS% went from 55.8% to 63.4%. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

• MinutesHis minutes went from 28.5 to 33.7 a game (about 60% of the change)
• EfficiencyHis TS% went from 55.8% to 63.4% (about 51% of the change)
• Teammate outPaul George (29 MPG before) played only 17 of 46 games

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Alperen SengunF-C · HOUProbably real

Last 25 games of the season vs the 47 games before

Sengun's TS% is up 6.3 points over his last 25 games of the season (61.2% vs 54.9%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 3.5 points above what his shot spots predict (2.2 points below before). Probably real: about 70% should hold.

• Shot-makingHis TS% was 3.5 points above what his shot spots predict (2.2 points below before) (about 90% of the change)

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Evan MobleyF-C · CLEProbably real

Last 25 games of the season vs the 40 games before

Mobley's rim share is up 14 points over his last 25 games of the season (57% vs 43%). The likely reason: Darius Garland (30 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: James Harden joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 33.8 MPG. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

• Teammate outDarius Garland (30 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
• New teammateJames Harden joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 33.8 MPG

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Naz ReidF-C · MINProbably real

Last 25 games of the season vs the 52 games before

Reid's 3-point rate is down 13 points over his last 25 games of the season (43% vs 55%). The likely reason: Ayo Dosunmu joined the rotation on Feb 8 and played 28.9 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

• New teammateAyo Dosunmu joined the rotation on Feb 8 and played 28.9 MPG

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Nick RichardsC · CHIProbably real

20 games with CHI vs the 27 games before

Richards's 3-point rate is up 14 points over his 20 games with CHI (14% vs 0%). The likely reason: he moved from PHX to CHI (first game Feb 7). Probably real: about 65% should hold.

• New teamHe moved from PHX to CHI (first game Feb 7)

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Kyle FilipowskiC · UTAProbably real

28 games since Feb 3 vs the 49 games before

Filipowski's scoring is up 5.6 points a game over his 28 games since Feb 3 (15.0 vs 9.4). Much of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 13.5 to 17.2, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

• Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 13.5 to 17.2 (about 54% of the change)
• Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 30 games, plus 3 more key players out
• Starting roleHe started 25 of 28 games, up from 16 of 49 (about 31% of the change)

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Karlo MatkovicF-C · NOPProbably real

Last 25 games of the season vs the 37 games before

Matkovic's rim share is down 14 points over his last 25 games of the season (44% vs 58%). The likely reason: Dejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 27.9 MPG. Also a teammate's absence: Jordan Poole (25 MPG before) played only 9 of 26 games. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

• New teammateDejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 27.9 MPG
• Teammate outJordan Poole (25 MPG before) played only 9 of 26 games

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Luke KornetF-C · SASProbably real

31 games since Jan 28 vs the 37 games before

Kornet's playing time is down 6.9 minutes a game over his 31 games since Jan 28 (17.3 vs 24.2). Much of it is the starting role change: he started 3 of 31 games, down from 22 of 37. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

• Starting roleHe started 3 of 31 games, down from 22 of 37 (about 55% of the change)

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Nick RichardsC · CHIProbably real

20 games with CHI vs the 27 games before

Richards's scoring is up 6.1 points a game over his 20 games with CHI (9.4 vs 3.3). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 9.5 to 22.3 a game, after his move to CHI. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

• MinutesHis minutes went from 9.5 to 22.3 a game (about 74% of the change)
• New teamHe moved from PHX to CHI (first game Feb 7)
• Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 11.7 to 13.1 (about 15% of the change)

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Jarrett AllenC · CLEProbably real

20 games since Jan 28 vs the 36 games before

Allen's scoring is up 5.9 points a game over his 20 games since Jan 28 (19.2 vs 13.3). Most of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 13.7 to 18.0, with Darius Garland gone. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

• Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 13.7 to 18.0 (about 70% of the change)
• Teammate outDarius Garland (30 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
• EfficiencyHis TS% went from 63.9% to 71.0% (about 32% of the change)

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Nikola JokicC · DENProbably real

Last 25 games of the season vs the 40 games before

Jokic's TS% is down 5.5 points over his last 25 games of the season (63.6% vs 69.1%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 5.2 points above what his shot spots predict (8.8 points above before), with Peyton Watson out. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

• Shot-makingHis TS% was 5.2 points above what his shot spots predict (8.8 points above before) (about 65% of the change)
• Teammate outPeyton Watson (31 MPG before) played only 5 of 26 games, plus 1 more key player out
• Shot dietHis short paint share of shots went from 31% to 37% (about 35% of the change)

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Jusuf NurkicC · UTAProbably real

16 games since Dec 22 vs the 25 games before

Nurkic's scoring is up 6.2 points a game over his 16 games since Dec 22 (14.7 vs 8.5). Much of it is shooting efficiency: his TS% went from 49.8% to 60.4%, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

• EfficiencyHis TS% went from 49.8% to 60.4% (about 42% of the change)
• Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 28 games
• MinutesHis minutes went from 24.4 to 29.7 a game (about 30% of the change)

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Moussa CisseC · DALProbably real

16 games since Jan 15 vs the 21 games before

Cisse's playing time is up 7.6 minutes a game over his 16 games since Jan 15 (18.7 vs 11.0). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Anthony Davis (31 MPG before) missed all 41 games. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

• Teammate outAnthony Davis (31 MPG before) missed all 41 games (about 100% of the change)

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Jarrett AllenC · CLEPartly real

20 games since Jan 28 vs the 36 games before

Allen's TS% is up 7.1 points over his 20 games since Jan 28 (71.0% vs 63.9%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 11.2 points above what his shot spots predict (1.9 points above before), with Darius Garland gone. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

• Shot-makingHis TS% was 11.2 points above what his shot spots predict (1.9 points above before) (about 100% of the change)
• Teammate outDarius Garland (30 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
• New teammateJames Harden joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 34.1 MPG

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Thomas BryantC · CLEProbably real

28 games since Jan 28 vs the 32 games before

Bryant's playing time is up 6.4 minutes a game over his 28 games since Jan 28 (15.6 vs 9.2). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Darius Garland (30 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

• Teammate outDarius Garland (30 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out (about 100% of the change)

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Jalen DurenC · DETProbably real

Last 25 games of the season vs the 45 games before

Duren's TS% is up 6.0 points over his last 25 games of the season (72.4% vs 66.4%). Much of it is shot diet: his short paint share of shots went from 28% to 18%. Also shot-making: his TS% was 5.7 points above what his shot spots predict (3.1 points above before). Probably real: about 65% should hold.

• Shot dietHis short paint share of shots went from 28% to 18% (about 57% of the change)
• Shot-makingHis TS% was 5.7 points above what his shot spots predict (3.1 points above before) (about 43% of the change)

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Karlo MatkovicF-C · NOPPartly real

Last 25 games of the season vs the 37 games before

Matkovic's corner-3 share is up 13 points over his last 25 games of the season (28% vs 14%). The likely reason: Dejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 27.9 MPG. Also a teammate's absence: Jordan Poole (25 MPG before) played only 9 of 26 games. Partly real: about 60% should hold.

• New teammateDejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 27.9 MPG
• Teammate outJordan Poole (25 MPG before) played only 9 of 26 games

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Ryan KalkbrennerC · CHAProbably real

41 games since Jan 15 vs the 28 games before

Kalkbrenner's playing time is down 6.2 minutes a game over his 41 games since Jan 15 (19.0 vs 25.1). Most of it is the starting role change: he started 6 of 41 games, down from 25 of 28. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

• Starting roleHe started 6 of 41 games, down from 25 of 28 (about 92% of the change)

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Al HorfordC-F · GSWProbably real

Last 25 games of the season vs the 20 games before

Horford's 3-point rate is down 12 points over his last 25 games of the season (59% vs 71%). The likely reason: Jimmy Butler (32 MPG before) played only 4 of 43 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: Kristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

• Teammate outJimmy Butler (32 MPG before) played only 4 of 43 games, plus 1 more key player out
• New teammateKristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG
• Starting roleHe started 12 of 25 games, up from 1 of 20

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Nick RichardsC · CHIPartly real

20 games with CHI vs the 27 games before

Richards's rebounding is up 4.2 rebounds a game over his 20 games with CHI (7.6 vs 3.4). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 9.5 to 22.3 a game, after his move to CHI. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

• MinutesHis minutes went from 9.5 to 22.3 a game (about 100% of the change)
• New teamHe moved from PHX to CHI (first game Feb 7)

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Bam AdebayoC-F · MIAProbably real

Last 25 games of the season vs the 48 games before

Adebayo's scoring is up 4.9 points a game over his last 25 games of the season (23.3 vs 18.4). Much of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 19.3 to 21.9, with Norman Powell out. Also playing time: his minutes went from 31.4 to 34.4 a game. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

• Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 19.3 to 21.9 (about 56% of the change)
• MinutesHis minutes went from 31.4 to 34.4 a game (about 36% of the change)
• Teammate outNorman Powell (31 MPG before) played only 13 of 26 games

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Yanic Konan NiederhauserC · LACProbably real

12 games since Feb 4 vs the 29 games before

Niederhauser's playing time is up 7.5 minutes a game over his 12 games since Feb 4 (15.7 vs 8.2). Most of it is a teammate's absence: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

• Teammate outJames Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out (about 100% of the change)

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Al HorfordC-F · GSWPartly real

Last 25 games of the season vs the 20 games before

Horford's rim share is up 13 points over his last 25 games of the season (21% vs 7%). The likely reason: Jimmy Butler (32 MPG before) played only 4 of 43 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: Kristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

• Teammate outJimmy Butler (32 MPG before) played only 4 of 43 games, plus 1 more key player out
• New teammateKristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG
• Starting roleHe started 12 of 25 games, up from 1 of 20

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Kel'el WareC · MIAProbably real

39 games since Jan 11 vs the 38 games before

Ware's playing time is down 5.6 minutes a game over his 39 games since Jan 11 (19.4 vs 25.0). Most of it is the starting role change: he started 7 of 39 games, down from 27 of 38. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

• Starting roleHe started 7 of 39 games, down from 27 of 38 (about 78% of the change)

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Jaren Jackson Jr.F-C · UTAProbably real

Last 25 games of the season vs the 23 games before

Jackson Jr.'s scoring is up 5.0 points a game over his last 25 games of the season (21.8 vs 16.8). Much of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 18.5 to 21.3, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

• Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 18.5 to 21.3 (about 54% of the change)
• Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 31 games
• MinutesHis minutes went from 29.3 to 31.3 a game (about 23% of the change)

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Kyle FilipowskiC · UTAProbably real

28 games since Feb 3 vs the 49 games before

Filipowski's usage is up 5.3 points over his 28 games since Feb 3 (23.2% vs 18.0%). The likely reason: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 30 games, plus 3 more key players out. Also the starting role change: he started 25 of 28 games, up from 16 of 49. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

• Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 30 games, plus 3 more key players out
• Starting roleHe started 25 of 28 games, up from 16 of 49

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Brook LopezC · LACProbably real

33 games since Feb 4 vs the 42 games before

Lopez's scoring is up 4.4 points a game over his 33 games since Feb 4 (10.9 vs 6.5). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 17.2 to 27.6 a game, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

• MinutesHis minutes went from 17.2 to 27.6 a game (about 89% of the change)
• Starting roleHe started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42 (about 81% of the change)
• Teammate outJames Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out

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Jalen DurenC · DETProbably real

Last 25 games of the season vs the 45 games before

Duren's scoring is up 4.6 points a game over his last 25 games of the season (22.5 vs 17.8). Much of it is shooting efficiency: his TS% went from 66.4% to 72.4%. Also shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 17.4 to 19.2. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

• EfficiencyHis TS% went from 66.4% to 72.4% (about 40% of the change)
• Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 17.4 to 19.2 (about 40% of the change)
• MinutesHis minutes went from 27.7 to 29.2 a game (about 20% of the change)

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Nicolas ClaxtonF-C · BKNProbably real

12 games since Mar 9 vs the 57 games before

Claxton's playing time is down 7.2 minutes a game over his 12 games since Mar 9 (21.9 vs 29.1). The likely reason: Chaney Johnson joined the rotation on Mar 9 and played 20.1 MPG. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

• New teammateChaney Johnson joined the rotation on Mar 9 and played 20.1 MPG

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Ivica ZubacC · INDProbably real

21 games since Dec 20 vs the 27 games before

Zubac's playing time is down 6.1 minutes a game over his 21 games since Dec 20 (26.8 vs 32.9). The likely reason: Kobe Brown joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 24.2 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

• New teammateKobe Brown joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 24.2 MPG

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Kel'el WareC · MIAProbably real

39 games since Jan 11 vs the 38 games before

Ware's TS% is down 5.6 points over his 39 games since Jan 11 (58.7% vs 64.3%). Most of it is shot diet: his rim share of shots went from 54% to 45%, after he moved to the bench. Also shot-making: his TS% was 0.5 points above what his shot spots predict (2.2 points above before). Probably real: about 60% should hold.

• Shot dietHis rim share of shots went from 54% to 45% (about 70% of the change)
• Shot-makingHis TS% was 0.5 points above what his shot spots predict (2.2 points above before) (about 31% of the change)
• Starting roleHe started 7 of 39 games, down from 27 of 38

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Jaxson HayesC · LALPartly real

8 games since Mar 21 vs the 58 games before

Hayes's scoring is up 6.8 points a game over his 8 games since Mar 21 (13.5 vs 6.7). Much of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 9.2 to 12.6, with Marcus Smart out. Also playing time: his minutes went from 17.6 to 23.6 a game. Partly real: about half should hold.

• Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 9.2 to 12.6 (about 48% of the change)
• MinutesHis minutes went from 17.6 to 23.6 a game (about 34% of the change)
• Teammate outMarcus Smart (29 MPG before) played only 1 of 8 games

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Isaiah HartensteinF-C · OKCProbably real

25 games since Dec 25 vs the 22 games before

Hartenstein's playing time is down 6.0 minutes a game over his 25 games since Dec 25 (21.5 vs 27.5). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

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Evan MobleyF-C · CLEProbably real

Last 25 games of the season vs the 40 games before

Mobley's above-the-break 3 share is down 10 points over his last 25 games of the season (14% vs 24%). The likely reason: Darius Garland (30 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: James Harden joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 33.8 MPG. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

• Teammate outDarius Garland (30 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
• New teammateJames Harden joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 33.8 MPG

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Alexandre SarrC · WASPartly real

9 games since Feb 5 vs the 39 games before

Sarr's scoring is down 6.0 points a game over his 9 games since Feb 5 (11.4 vs 17.4). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 28.5 to 21.4 a game, after Jaden Hardy joined the rotation. Also shooting efficiency: his TS% went from 55.7% to 46.9%. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

• MinutesHis minutes went from 28.5 to 21.4 a game (about 72% of the change)
• EfficiencyHis TS% went from 55.7% to 46.9% (about 36% of the change)
• New teammateJaden Hardy joined the rotation on Feb 11 and played 20.6 MPG

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Mark WilliamsC · PHXPartly real

Last 25 games of the season vs the 35 games before

Williams's TS% is down 5.6 points over his last 25 games of the season (64.6% vs 70.2%). Much of it is shot-making: his TS% was 1.5 points above what his shot spots predict (4.7 points above before). Also shot diet: his short paint share of shots went from 25% to 22%. Partly real: about 60% should hold.

• Shot-makingHis TS% was 1.5 points above what his shot spots predict (4.7 points above before) (about 57% of the change)
• Shot dietHis short paint share of shots went from 25% to 22% (about 43% of the change)

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Brook LopezC · LACPartly real

33 games since Feb 4 vs the 42 games before

Lopez's TS% is up 5.7 points over his 33 games since Feb 4 (57.8% vs 52.1%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 2.6 points above what his shot spots predict (3.1 points below before), with James Harden gone. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

• Shot-makingHis TS% was 2.6 points above what his shot spots predict (3.1 points below before) (about 100% of the change)
• Teammate outJames Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
• Starting roleHe started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42

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Jock LandaleC · ATLPartly real

23 games with ATL vs the 45 games before

Landale's corner-3 share is up 11 points over his 23 games with ATL (18% vs 7%). The likely reason: he moved from MEM to ATL (first game Feb 5). Also the starting role change: he started 2 of 23 games, down from 25 of 45. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

• New teamHe moved from MEM to ATL (first game Feb 5)
• Starting roleHe started 2 of 23 games, down from 25 of 45

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Myles TurnerC-F · MILProbably real

21 games since Feb 22 vs the 50 games before

Turner's playing time is down 5.4 minutes a game over his 21 games since Feb 22 (23.1 vs 28.5). The likely reason: Cormac Ryan joined the rotation on Mar 19 and played 23.1 MPG. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

• New teammateCormac Ryan joined the rotation on Mar 19 and played 23.1 MPG

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Luka GarzaC · BOSProbably real

22 games since Feb 24 vs the 47 games before

Garza's usage is up 5.1 points over his 22 games since Feb 24 (21.3% vs 16.2%). The likely reason: Nikola Vucevic (25 MPG before) played only 11 of 26 games. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

• Teammate outNikola Vucevic (25 MPG before) played only 11 of 26 games

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Alexandre SarrC · WASPartly real

9 games since Feb 5 vs the 39 games before

Sarr's playing time is down 7.1 minutes a game over his 9 games since Feb 5 (21.4 vs 28.5). The likely reason: Jaden Hardy joined the rotation on Feb 11 and played 20.6 MPG. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

• New teammateJaden Hardy joined the rotation on Feb 11 and played 20.6 MPG

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Maxime RaynaudC · SACProbably real

28 games since Feb 9 vs the 46 games before

Raynaud's TS% is up 4.9 points over his 28 games since Feb 9 (64.4% vs 59.4%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 7.9 points above what his shot spots predict (4.7 points above before), with Zach LaVine out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

• Shot-makingHis TS% was 7.9 points above what his shot spots predict (4.7 points above before) (about 65% of the change)
• Teammate outZach LaVine (31 MPG before) missed all 28 games, plus 4 more key players out
• Shot dietHis midrange share of shots went from 4% to 8% (about 36% of the change)

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Ivica ZubacC · INDProbably real

21 games since Dec 20 vs the 27 games before

Zubac's scoring is down 4.3 points a game over his 21 games since Dec 20 (11.7 vs 16.0). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 32.9 to 26.8 a game, after Kobe Brown joined the rotation. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

• MinutesHis minutes went from 32.9 to 26.8 a game (about 69% of the change)
• New teammateKobe Brown joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 24.2 MPG
• Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 13.9 to 12.9 (about 23% of the change)

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Karlo MatkovicF-C · NOPProbably real

Last 25 games of the season vs the 37 games before

Matkovic's 3-point rate is up 9 points over his last 25 games of the season (43% vs 34%). The likely reason: Dejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 27.9 MPG. Also a teammate's absence: Jordan Poole (25 MPG before) played only 9 of 26 games. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

• New teammateDejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 27.9 MPG
• Teammate outJordan Poole (25 MPG before) played only 9 of 26 games

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Evan MobleyF-C · CLEProbably real

Last 25 games of the season vs the 40 games before

Mobley's 3-point rate is down 9 points over his last 25 games of the season (19% vs 28%). The likely reason: Darius Garland (30 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: James Harden joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 33.8 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

• Teammate outDarius Garland (30 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
• New teammateJames Harden joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 33.8 MPG

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Goga BitadzeC · ORLProbably real

28 games since Jan 15 vs the 36 games before

Bitadze's rim share is up 10 points over his 28 games since Jan 15 (89% vs 80%). The likely reason: Franz Wagner (33 MPG before) played only 10 of 42 games. Also a new teammate: Jevon Carter joined the rotation on Feb 9 and played 20.4 MPG. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

• Teammate outFranz Wagner (33 MPG before) played only 10 of 42 games
• New teammateJevon Carter joined the rotation on Feb 9 and played 20.4 MPG

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