Last season (2025-26)
Players whose game really moved: more minutes, a bigger role, a new shot diet. Each change comes with the likely reason and how much of it should hold.
The 2026-27 season does not have enough games yet, so this shows 2025-26: each player's last 25 games (or his games since a role change or a trade) against the rest of his season. Once players have about 20 games this season, the page switches to this season by itself.
Gill's playing time is up 21.0 minutes a game over his 32 games since Feb 1 (26.2 vs 5.2). Most of it is a teammate's absence: CJ McCollum (31 MPG before) left the team, plus 2 more key players out. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Santos's playing time is up 18.3 minutes a game over his 32 games since Jan 26 (30.1 vs 11.8). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Jimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 35 games, plus 1 more key player out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Rupert's playing time is up 18.9 minutes a game over his 16 games with MEM (30.9 vs 12.0). Much of it is the starting role change: he started 8 of 16 games, up from 0 of 48, after his move to MEM. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Riley's playing time is up 16.0 minutes a game over his 36 games since Jan 30 (30.3 vs 14.3). Most of it is a teammate's absence: CJ McCollum (31 MPG before) left the team, plus 2 more key players out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Miller's playing time is up 18.1 minutes a game over his 27 games with CHI (23.1 vs 5.1). Much of it is the starting role change: he started 12 of 27 games, up from 0 of 19, after his move to CHI. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Brown's playing time is up 16.1 minutes a game over his 27 games with IND (24.8 vs 8.7). The likely reason: he moved from LAC to IND (first game Feb 10). Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Yabusele's playing time is up 15.7 minutes a game over his 26 games with CHI (24.6 vs 8.9). Most of it is the starting role change: he started 19 of 26 games, up from 0 of 41, after his move to CHI. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Dieng's playing time is up 15.9 minutes a game over his 30 games with MIL (26.9 vs 10.9). Most of it is the starting role change: he started 20 of 30 games, up from 0 of 27, after his move to MIL. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Clifford's playing time is up 14.8 minutes a game over his 33 games since Jan 25 (33.4 vs 18.6). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Keegan Murray (36 MPG before) played only 4 of 36 games, plus 4 more key players out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Lopez's 3-point rate is down 25 points over his 33 games since Feb 4 (47% vs 72%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Santos's scoring is up 11.4 points a game over his 32 games since Jan 26 (15.2 vs 3.8). Much of it is playing time: his minutes went from 11.8 to 30.1 a game, with Jimmy Butler out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Williams's playing time is up 15.0 minutes a game over his 19 games since Mar 5 (35.1 vs 20.1). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Lauri Markkanen (34 MPG before) missed all 20 games, plus 4 more key players out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Peter's playing time is up 16.0 minutes a game over his 17 games since Jan 17 (21.8 vs 5.8). Much of it is a teammate's absence: Bennedict Mathurin (32 MPG before) left the team. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Nance's playing time is up 16.4 minutes a game over his 13 games since Mar 17 (27.5 vs 11.0). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Kevin Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 1 of 13 games, plus 2 more key players out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Clarkson's 3-point rate is down 23 points over his 30 games since Jan 19 (25% vs 48%). The likely reason: Miles McBride (28 MPG before) played only 10 of 40 games. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Scheierman's playing time is up 12.6 minutes a game over his 42 games since Jan 17 (24.3 vs 11.7). Much of it is the starting role change: he started 19 of 42 games, up from 1 of 35. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Riley's scoring is up 10.1 points a game over his 36 games since Jan 30 (15.5 vs 5.4). Much of it is playing time: his minutes went from 14.3 to 30.3 a game, with CJ McCollum gone. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Carter's playing time is up 14.7 minutes a game over his 22 games since Feb 6 (24.6 vs 9.9). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Keegan Murray (36 MPG before) played only 4 of 30 games, plus 4 more key players out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Jenkins's playing time is up 14.7 minutes a game over his 14 games since Mar 19 (32.0 vs 17.3). Most of it is the starting role change: he started 11 of 14 games, up from 8 of 58, with Cade Cunningham out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Watson's rim share is down 25 points over his 24 games since Dec 31 (23% vs 48%). The likely reason: Aaron Gordon (28 MPG before) played only 20 of 45 games. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Williams's scoring is up 10.6 points a game over his 19 games since Mar 5 (16.4 vs 5.8). Much of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 10.1 to 15.8, with Lauri Markkanen out. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Agbaji's rim share is down 25 points over his 20 games with BKN (26% vs 52%). The likely reason: he moved from TOR to BKN (first game Feb 11). Partly real: about 60% should hold.
Dillingham's playing time is up 12.1 minutes a game over his 30 games with CHI (21.4 vs 9.3). The likely reason: he moved from MIN to CHI (first game Feb 7). Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Sensabaugh's scoring is up 9.4 points a game over his 44 games since Jan 1 (18.9 vs 9.5). The likely reason: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 50 games, plus 3 more key players out. Also playing time: his minutes went from 19.0 to 27.1 a game. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Richards's playing time is up 12.8 minutes a game over his 20 games with CHI (22.3 vs 9.5). The likely reason: he moved from PHX to CHI (first game Feb 7). Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Santos's 3-point rate is down 20 points over his 32 games since Jan 26 (44% vs 64%). The likely reason: Jimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 35 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 27 of 32 games, up from 3 of 36. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Sims's playing time is up 11.6 minutes a game over his 34 games since Feb 3 (25.6 vs 14.1). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Giannis Antetokounmpo (29 MPG before) played only 6 of 35 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Fleming's playing time is up 12.1 minutes a game over his 26 games since Feb 11 (18.7 vs 6.6). Much of it is a teammate's absence: Dillon Brooks (31 MPG before) played only 8 of 28 games. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Prosper's playing time is up 12.3 minutes a game over his 30 games since Jan 31 (24.1 vs 11.8). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Jaren Jackson Jr. (31 MPG before) left the team, plus 3 more key players out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Alexander-Walker's TS% is up 10.1 points over his last 25 games of the season (68.1% vs 58.0%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 7.9 points above what his shot spots predict (1.6 points below before), with Trae Young gone. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Konchar's playing time is up 11.6 minutes a game over his 26 games with UTA (26.2 vs 14.6). The likely reason: he moved from MEM to UTA (first game Feb 7). Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Eason's TS% is down 12.2 points over his last 25 games of the season (44.1% vs 56.3%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 14.4 points below what his shot spots predict (0.6 points below before). Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Johnson's TS% is down 11.8 points over his 22 games since Jan 29 (46.1% vs 57.9%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 6.4 points below what his shot spots predict (3.9 points above before), with CJ McCollum gone. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Wilson's 3-point rate is down 24 points over his 12 games since Mar 10 (40% vs 63%). The likely reason: Michael Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 1 of 18 games, plus 2 more key players out. Also a new teammate: Malachi Smith joined the rotation on Mar 14 and played 23.9 MPG. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Lopez's above-the-break 3 share is down 19 points over his 33 games since Feb 4 (41% vs 60%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Edwards's 3-point rate is down 19 points over his last 25 games of the season (47% vs 66%). The likely reason: Joel Embiid (31 MPG before) played only 7 of 30 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Mann's playing time is down 11.4 minutes a game over his 31 games since Dec 29 (7.9 vs 19.3). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Lopez's playing time is up 10.4 minutes a game over his 33 games since Feb 4 (27.6 vs 17.2). Most of it is a teammate's absence: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Cain's playing time is up 12.5 minutes a game over his 17 games since Mar 14 (19.6 vs 7.2). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Anthony Black (31 MPG before) played only 4 of 17 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Spencer's playing time is up 10.6 minutes a game over his 32 games since Feb 3 (24.0 vs 13.4). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Jimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 32 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Jones's playing time is up 12.7 minutes a game over his 22 games since Feb 8 (21.7 vs 9.1). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Bennedict Mathurin (32 MPG before) left the team, plus 2 more key players out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Prosper's scoring is up 9.1 points a game over his 30 games since Jan 31 (14.0 vs 5.0). Much of it is playing time: his minutes went from 11.8 to 24.1 a game, with Jaren Jackson Jr. gone. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Miller's scoring is up 9.4 points a game over his 27 games with CHI (11.7 vs 2.3). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 5.1 to 23.1 a game, after his move to CHI. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Achiuwa's scoring is up 8.6 points a game over his 25 games since Feb 19 (15.7 vs 7.1). The likely reason: Zach LaVine (31 MPG before) missed all 26 games, plus 4 more key players out. Also playing time: his minutes went from 20.3 to 30.9 a game. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Harper's TS% is up 11.0 points over his last 25 games of the season (64.4% vs 53.4%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 6.3 points above what his shot spots predict (6.0 points below before). Partly real: about 60% should hold.
Martin's playing time is up 10.8 minutes a game over his 27 games since Jan 10 (20.6 vs 9.8). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Anthony Davis (31 MPG before) missed all 30 games, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Achiuwa's playing time is up 10.6 minutes a game over his 25 games since Feb 19 (30.9 vs 20.3). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Zach LaVine (31 MPG before) missed all 26 games, plus 4 more key players out. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Watson's usage is up 10.6 points over his 24 games since Dec 31 (26.5% vs 15.9%). The likely reason: Aaron Gordon (28 MPG before) played only 20 of 45 games. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Watson's scoring is up 8.7 points a game over his 24 games since Dec 31 (19.5 vs 10.7). Most of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 11.6 to 18.5, with Aaron Gordon out. Also playing time: his minutes went from 27.2 to 32.5 a game. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Agbaji's above-the-break 3 share is up 20 points over his 20 games with BKN (37% vs 17%). The likely reason: he moved from TOR to BKN (first game Feb 11). Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Jackson's scoring is up 8.8 points a game over his 32 games since Jan 26 (16.3 vs 7.5). The likely reason: Ja Morant (28 MPG before) missed all 36 games, plus 3 more key players out. Also playing time: his minutes went from 16.4 to 25.4 a game. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Reid's TS% is down 10.2 points over his last 25 games of the season (49.5% vs 59.7%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 6.1 points below what his shot spots predict (4.3 points above before), after Ayo Dosunmu joined the rotation. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Rupert's scoring is up 9.3 points a game over his 16 games with MEM (12.2 vs 2.9). Much of it is playing time: his minutes went from 12.0 to 30.9 a game, after his move to MEM. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Howard's above-the-break 3 share is down 20 points over his 21 games since Feb 21 (28% vs 48%). The likely reason: Franz Wagner (32 MPG before) played only 2 of 23 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Agbaji's 3-point rate is up 19 points over his 20 games with BKN (57% vs 38%). The likely reason: he moved from TOR to BKN (first game Feb 11). Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Clifford's scoring is up 7.6 points a game over his 33 games since Jan 25 (12.8 vs 5.3). Much of it is playing time: his minutes went from 18.6 to 33.4 a game, with Keegan Murray out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Williams's midrange share is up 19 points over his 19 games since Mar 5 (22% vs 4%). The likely reason: Lauri Markkanen (34 MPG before) missed all 20 games, plus 4 more key players out. Also the starting role change: he started 19 of 19 games, up from 22 of 48. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
McGowens's rim share is down 23 points over his 25 games since Dec 18 (32% vs 55%). The likely reason: Dejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 25.8 MPG. Partly real: about half should hold.
Carter's scoring is up 9.0 points a game over his 22 games since Feb 6 (12.7 vs 3.7). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 9.9 to 24.6 a game, with Keegan Murray out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Small's playing time is up 11.1 minutes a game over his 24 games since Feb 6 (25.2 vs 14.1). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Jaren Jackson Jr. (31 MPG before) left the team, plus 4 more key players out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Every night we split each player's regular season (8+ games on each side) in one of three ways, in this order: the day he joined a new team; the game after which his minutes and usage shifted the most (a simple two-part split); or, if neither moved much, his last 10 games. Until the new season has enough games (about 20 each for most players) we use last season and its last 25 games, which catches the roles that changed at the trade deadline.
A change counts as big when it reaches:
Players need 15+ minutes a game on one side. Shooting needs 40+ threes or 60+ shots on each side.
Both windows are pulled toward the player's whole season by a fixed amount of weight M, the sample size where a stat is half skill and half luck: (window x n + season x M) / (n + M). A change is shown only if the pulled gap keeps at least half of the raw gap: Probably real keeps 60% or more, Partly real keeps 50 to 59%, anything less is Mostly noise and stays off the feed.
M values: 3P% 501 threes, TS% 218 shots and points 9.7 games, from Is it real?; minutes 9.4, usage 17, assists 18.9, rebounds 18.1, 3-point rate 13.9, rim share 18.2, midrange 16.8, corner 3 21.6 and above the break 15.4 games, measured on 1,766 pairs of back-to-back 10-game stretches in 2025-26. That is why 3P% changes almost never make it: threes are mostly luck until a player has taken hundreds.
Rules, each with a number. Points split exactly into minutes, shot volume and efficiency. Assists and rebounds split into minutes and per-minute rate. TS% and 3P% split into shot diet (league FG% from the spots he shot from) and shot-making (the rest). Context: a new team, a move into or out of the starting five (starting lineups from our stint data), key teammates (25+ minutes before) who missed most of the window, a new rotation player (20+ minutes), and opponents' defensive rating. We keep causes that explain 15%+ of the change and show the top three.
Backtest on 2025-26: we ran this as if the season stopped on 3 dates and checked each flag against the rest of the season. Probably real changes kept 71% of their size on average (we predicted 66%) and 88% kept going the same way (301 flags). Partly real kept 60% (predicted 55%). Mostly noise kept 39% (predicted 33%), so the pull is a little cautious, which is the safe side.
Latest run: 393 players checked, 447 probably real and 180 partly real changes, and 273 big swings left out as mostly noise.
Injuries a player played through, coaching decisions, matchups and schemes, and anything off the box score. Missing teammates are read from who played, not the injury report. Causes are rough splits, not proof; when nothing in our data fits we say so.
