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Last season (2025-26)

What changed?

Players whose game really moved: more minutes, a bigger role, a new shot diet. Each change comes with the likely reason and how much of it should hold.

The 2026-27 season does not have enough games yet, so this shows 2025-26: each player's last 25 games (or his games since a role change or a trade) against the rest of his season. Once players have about 20 games this season, the page switches to this season by itself.

Biggest real changes

279 of 393 players flagged

Showing 60 changes, biggest first (size after the "is it real?" pull). Clear filters

Brook LopezC · LACProbably real
3-point rate-25 pts

33 games since Feb 4 vs the 42 games before

Lopez's 3-point rate is down 25 points over his 33 games since Feb 4 (47% vs 72%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

  • Teammate outJames Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
  • Starting roleHe started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42
  • New teammateBennedict Mathurin joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 28.0 MPG
Jordan ClarksonG · NYKProbably real
3-point rate-23 pts

30 games since Jan 19 vs the 42 games before

Clarkson's 3-point rate is down 23 points over his 30 games since Jan 19 (25% vs 48%). The likely reason: Miles McBride (28 MPG before) played only 10 of 40 games. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outMiles McBride (28 MPG before) played only 10 of 40 games
Peyton WatsonG · DENProbably real
Rim share-25 pts

24 games since Dec 31 vs the 30 games before

Watson's rim share is down 25 points over his 24 games since Dec 31 (23% vs 48%). The likely reason: Aaron Gordon (28 MPG before) played only 20 of 45 games. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

  • Teammate outAaron Gordon (28 MPG before) played only 20 of 45 games
Ochai AgbajiG · BKNPartly real
Rim share-25 pts

20 games with BKN vs the 42 games before

Agbaji's rim share is down 25 points over his 20 games with BKN (26% vs 52%). The likely reason: he moved from TOR to BKN (first game Feb 11). Partly real: about 60% should hold.

  • New teamHe moved from TOR to BKN (first game Feb 11)
Gui SantosF · GSWProbably real
3-point rate-20 pts

32 games since Jan 26 vs the 36 games before

Santos's 3-point rate is down 20 points over his 32 games since Jan 26 (44% vs 64%). The likely reason: Jimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 35 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 27 of 32 games, up from 3 of 36. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outJimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 35 games, plus 1 more key player out
  • Starting roleHe started 27 of 32 games, up from 3 of 36
  • New teammateKristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG
Tari EasonF · HOUPartly real
TS%-12.2 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 35 games before

Eason's TS% is down 12.2 points over his last 25 games of the season (44.1% vs 56.3%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 14.4 points below what his shot spots predict (0.6 points below before). Partly real: about 55% should hold.

  • Shot-makingHis TS% was 14.4 points below what his shot spots predict (0.6 points below before) (about 100% of the change)
Tre JohnsonG · WASPartly real
TS%-11.8 pts

22 games since Jan 29 vs the 38 games before

Johnson's TS% is down 11.8 points over his 22 games since Jan 29 (46.1% vs 57.9%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 6.4 points below what his shot spots predict (3.9 points above before), with CJ McCollum gone. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

  • Shot-makingHis TS% was 6.4 points below what his shot spots predict (3.9 points above before) (about 88% of the change)
  • Teammate outCJ McCollum (31 MPG before) left the team, plus 2 more key players out
  • New teammateJaden Hardy joined the rotation on Feb 11 and played 21.0 MPG
Jalen WilsonF · BKNPartly real
3-point rate-24 pts

12 games since Mar 10 vs the 42 games before

Wilson's 3-point rate is down 24 points over his 12 games since Mar 10 (40% vs 63%). The likely reason: Michael Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 1 of 18 games, plus 2 more key players out. Also a new teammate: Malachi Smith joined the rotation on Mar 14 and played 23.9 MPG. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

  • Teammate outMichael Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 1 of 18 games, plus 2 more key players out
  • New teammateMalachi Smith joined the rotation on Mar 14 and played 23.9 MPG
Brook LopezC · LACProbably real
Above-the-break 3 share-19 pts

33 games since Feb 4 vs the 42 games before

Lopez's above-the-break 3 share is down 19 points over his 33 games since Feb 4 (41% vs 60%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outJames Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
  • Starting roleHe started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42
  • New teammateBennedict Mathurin joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 28.0 MPG
Justin EdwardsF · PHIProbably real
3-point rate-19 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 38 games before

Edwards's 3-point rate is down 19 points over his last 25 games of the season (47% vs 66%). The likely reason: Joel Embiid (31 MPG before) played only 7 of 30 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outJoel Embiid (31 MPG before) played only 7 of 30 games, plus 1 more key player out
Tre MannG · CHAProbably real
Minutes-11.4

31 games since Dec 29 vs the 22 games before

Mann's playing time is down 11.4 minutes a game over his 31 games since Dec 29 (7.9 vs 19.3). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

Naz ReidF-C · MINProbably real
TS%-10.2 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 52 games before

Reid's TS% is down 10.2 points over his last 25 games of the season (49.5% vs 59.7%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 6.1 points below what his shot spots predict (4.3 points above before), after Ayo Dosunmu joined the rotation. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

  • Shot-makingHis TS% was 6.1 points below what his shot spots predict (4.3 points above before) (about 100% of the change)
  • New teammateAyo Dosunmu joined the rotation on Feb 8 and played 28.9 MPG
Jett HowardG · ORLProbably real
Above-the-break 3 share-20 pts

21 games since Feb 21 vs the 34 games before

Howard's above-the-break 3 share is down 20 points over his 21 games since Feb 21 (28% vs 48%). The likely reason: Franz Wagner (32 MPG before) played only 2 of 23 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

  • Teammate outFranz Wagner (32 MPG before) played only 2 of 23 games, plus 1 more key player out
Bryce McGowensG · NOPPartly real
Rim share-23 pts

25 games since Dec 18 vs the 17 games before

McGowens's rim share is down 23 points over his 25 games since Dec 18 (32% vs 55%). The likely reason: Dejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 25.8 MPG. Partly real: about half should hold.

  • New teammateDejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 25.8 MPG
Bennedict MathurinG-F · LACProbably real
3-point rate-18 pts

26 games with LAC vs the 28 games before

Mathurin's 3-point rate is down 18 points over his 26 games with LAC (26% vs 44%). The likely reason: he moved from IND to LAC (first game Feb 10). Also the starting role change: he started 1 of 26 games, down from 24 of 28. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

  • New teamHe moved from IND to LAC (first game Feb 10)
  • Starting roleHe started 1 of 26 games, down from 24 of 28
Sidy CissokoG · PORProbably real
Minutes-9.5

25 games since Feb 20 vs the 50 games before

Cissoko's playing time is down 9.5 minutes a game over his 25 games since Feb 20 (12.8 vs 22.3). Much of it is the starting role change: he started 2 of 25 games, down from 24 of 50. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

  • Starting roleHe started 2 of 25 games, down from 24 of 50 (about 40% of the change)
Quentin GrimesG · PHIProbably real
Above-the-break 3 share-16 pts

40 games since Jan 12 vs the 35 games before

Grimes's above-the-break 3 share is down 16 points over his 40 games since Jan 12 (30% vs 46%). The likely reason: Paul George (30 MPG before) played only 17 of 45 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outPaul George (30 MPG before) played only 17 of 45 games, plus 1 more key player out
Quentin GrimesG · PHIProbably real
3-point rate-15 pts

40 games since Jan 12 vs the 35 games before

Grimes's 3-point rate is down 15 points over his 40 games since Jan 12 (43% vs 58%). The likely reason: Paul George (30 MPG before) played only 17 of 45 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

  • Teammate outPaul George (30 MPG before) played only 17 of 45 games, plus 1 more key player out
Coby WhiteG · CHAProbably real
Minutes-9.6

21 games with CHA vs the 29 games before

White's playing time is down 9.6 minutes a game over his 21 games with CHA (19.3 vs 29.0). Most of it is the starting role change: he started 0 of 21 games, down from 26 of 29, after his move to CHA. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Starting roleHe started 0 of 21 games, down from 26 of 29 (about 82% of the change)
  • New teamHe moved from CHI to CHA (first game Feb 24)
Gary Trent Jr.G · MILProbably real
Minutes-9.6

19 games since Feb 12 vs the 46 games before

Trent Jr.'s playing time is down 9.6 minutes a game over his 19 games since Feb 12 (14.4 vs 24.0). The likely reason: Cormac Ryan joined the rotation on Mar 19 and played 21.9 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • New teammateCormac Ryan joined the rotation on Mar 19 and played 21.9 MPG
Jordan MillerG · LACProbably real
3-point rate-16 pts

26 games since Feb 20 vs the 34 games before

Miller's 3-point rate is down 16 points over his 26 games since Feb 20 (19% vs 35%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: Darius Garland joined the rotation on Mar 2 and played 29.0 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outJames Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
  • New teammateDarius Garland joined the rotation on Mar 2 and played 29.0 MPG
Jalen WilsonF · BKNPartly real
Above-the-break 3 share-20 pts

12 games since Mar 10 vs the 42 games before

Wilson's above-the-break 3 share is down 20 points over his 12 games since Mar 10 (25% vs 45%). The likely reason: Michael Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 1 of 18 games, plus 2 more key players out. Also a new teammate: Malachi Smith joined the rotation on Mar 14 and played 23.9 MPG. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

  • Teammate outMichael Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 1 of 18 games, plus 2 more key players out
  • New teammateMalachi Smith joined the rotation on Mar 14 and played 23.9 MPG
Luke KennardG · LALProbably real
3-point rate-15 pts

32 games with LAL vs the 46 games before

Kennard's 3-point rate is down 15 points over his 32 games with LAL (47% vs 62%). The likely reason: he moved from ATL to LAL (first game Feb 7). Probably real: about 75% should hold.

  • New teamHe moved from ATL to LAL (first game Feb 7)
Wendell Carter Jr.F · ORLProbably real
3-point rate-15 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 53 games before

Carter Jr.'s 3-point rate is down 15 points over his last 25 games of the season (25% vs 40%). The likely reason: Franz Wagner (32 MPG before) played only 6 of 27 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outFranz Wagner (32 MPG before) played only 6 of 27 games, plus 1 more key player out
Pelle LarssonG · MIAProbably real
3-point rate-15 pts

40 games since Jan 11 vs the 30 games before

Larsson's 3-point rate is down 15 points over his 40 games since Jan 11 (29% vs 44%). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

Anthony BlackG · ORLPartly real
Minutes-13.0

8 games since Feb 24 vs the 56 games before

Black's playing time is down 13.0 minutes a game over his 8 games since Feb 24 (18.5 vs 31.5). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Partly real: about half should hold.

Nikola VucevicC · BOSProbably real
Minutes-9.7

16 games with BOS vs the 48 games before

Vucevic's playing time is down 9.7 minutes a game over his 16 games with BOS (21.2 vs 30.9). Most of it is the starting role change: he started 1 of 16 games, down from 48 of 48, after his move to BOS. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Starting roleHe started 1 of 16 games, down from 48 of 48 (about 96% of the change)
  • New teamHe moved from CHI to BOS (first game Feb 6)
Ben SarafG · BKNProbably real
3-point rate-17 pts

15 games since Mar 12 vs the 29 games before

Saraf's 3-point rate is down 17 points over his 15 games since Mar 12 (22% vs 39%). The likely reason: Michael Porter Jr. (32 MPG before) missed all 17 games, plus 2 more key players out. Also a new teammate: Malachi Smith joined the rotation on Mar 14 and played 23.9 MPG. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

  • Teammate outMichael Porter Jr. (32 MPG before) missed all 17 games, plus 2 more key players out
  • New teammateMalachi Smith joined the rotation on Mar 14 and played 23.9 MPG
Cade CunninghamG-F · DETPartly real
Points-10.3

8 games since Mar 10 vs the 56 games before

Cunningham's scoring is down 10.3 points a game over his 8 games since Mar 10 (14.9 vs 25.2). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 35.2 to 25.3 a game. Also shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 23.0 to 17.5. Partly real: about half should hold.

  • MinutesHis minutes went from 35.2 to 25.3 a game (about 69% of the change)
  • Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 23.0 to 17.5 (about 42% of the change)
Michael Porter Jr.F · BKNProbably real
TS%-7.2 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 27 games before

Porter Jr.'s TS% is down 7.2 points over his last 25 games of the season (55.7% vs 63.0%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 2.5 points below what his shot spots predict (5.6 points above before), with Cam Thomas gone. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Shot-makingHis TS% was 2.5 points below what his shot spots predict (5.6 points above before) (about 100% of the change)
  • Teammate outCam Thomas (26 MPG before) left the team
Kevin Porter Jr.G · MILPartly real
3-point rate-19 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 13 games before

Porter Jr.'s 3-point rate is down 19 points over his last 25 games of the season (21% vs 40%). The likely reason: Ousmane Dieng joined the rotation on Feb 9 and played 22.8 MPG. Also a teammate's absence: Giannis Antetokounmpo (29 MPG before) played only 18 of 36 games. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

  • New teammateOusmane Dieng joined the rotation on Feb 9 and played 22.8 MPG
  • Teammate outGiannis Antetokounmpo (29 MPG before) played only 18 of 36 games
Keaton WallaceG · ATLProbably real
Minutes-8.5

31 games since Dec 6 vs the 22 games before

Wallace's playing time is down 8.5 minutes a game over his 31 games since Dec 6 (6.5 vs 15.1). The likely reason: CJ McCollum joined the rotation on Jan 11 and played 28.8 MPG. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

  • New teammateCJ McCollum joined the rotation on Jan 11 and played 28.8 MPG
Naji MarshallF · DALProbably real
TS%-7.3 pts

36 games since Jan 10 vs the 38 games before

Marshall's TS% is down 7.3 points over his 36 games since Jan 10 (56.1% vs 63.4%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 0.7 points below what his shot spots predict (3.7 points above before), with Anthony Davis out. Also shot diet: his short paint share of shots went from 31% to 43%. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Shot-makingHis TS% was 0.7 points below what his shot spots predict (3.7 points above before) (about 60% of the change)
  • Shot dietHis short paint share of shots went from 31% to 43% (about 40% of the change)
  • Teammate outAnthony Davis (31 MPG before) missed all 41 games
Spencer JonesF · DENProbably real
3-point rate-16 pts

19 games since Feb 4 vs the 44 games before

Jones's 3-point rate is down 16 points over his 19 games since Feb 4 (43% vs 59%). The likely reason: Peyton Watson (31 MPG before) played only 5 of 25 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 4 of 19 games, down from 33 of 44. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

  • Teammate outPeyton Watson (31 MPG before) played only 5 of 25 games, plus 1 more key player out
  • Starting roleHe started 4 of 19 games, down from 33 of 44
Nikola VucevicC · BOSProbably real
Points-7.2

16 games with BOS vs the 48 games before

Vucevic's scoring is down 7.2 points a game over his 16 games with BOS (9.7 vs 16.9). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 30.9 to 21.2 a game, after he moved to the bench. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • MinutesHis minutes went from 30.9 to 21.2 a game (about 74% of the change)
  • Starting roleHe started 1 of 16 games, down from 48 of 48 (about 71% of the change)
  • New teamHe moved from CHI to BOS (first game Feb 6)
Sam HauserF · BOSProbably real
Above-the-break 3 share-13 pts

43 games since Jan 7 vs the 35 games before

Hauser's above-the-break 3 share is down 13 points over his 43 games since Jan 7 (62% vs 76%). The likely reason: he started 42 of 43 games, up from 7 of 35. Also a new teammate: Jayson Tatum joined the rotation on Mar 6 and played 32.6 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Starting roleHe started 42 of 43 games, up from 7 of 35
  • New teammateJayson Tatum joined the rotation on Mar 6 and played 32.6 MPG
Austin ReavesG · LALProbably real
TS%-6.9 pts

22 games since Feb 22 vs the 29 games before

Reaves's TS% is down 6.9 points over his 22 games since Feb 22 (60.0% vs 66.9%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 0.0 points above what his shot spots predict (4.4 points above before). Also shot diet: his short paint share of shots went from 23% to 32%. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Shot-makingHis TS% was 0.0 points above what his shot spots predict (4.4 points above before) (about 63% of the change)
  • Shot dietHis short paint share of shots went from 23% to 32% (about 37% of the change)
Micah PotterF · INDProbably real
3-point rate-15 pts

27 games since Feb 10 vs the 20 games before

Potter's 3-point rate is down 15 points over his 27 games since Feb 10 (53% vs 68%). The likely reason: Bennedict Mathurin (32 MPG before) left the team, plus 2 more key players out. Also a new teammate: Kobe Brown joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 24.8 MPG. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

  • Teammate outBennedict Mathurin (32 MPG before) left the team, plus 2 more key players out
  • New teammateKobe Brown joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 24.8 MPG
Jose AlvaradoG · NYKProbably real
3-point rate-13 pts

28 games with NYK vs the 41 games before

Alvarado's 3-point rate is down 13 points over his 28 games with NYK (56% vs 69%). The likely reason: he moved from NOP to NYK (first game Feb 8). Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • New teamHe moved from NOP to NYK (first game Feb 8)
KyShawn GeorgeF · WASPartly real
Minutes-11.2

8 games since Feb 5 vs the 40 games before

George's playing time is down 11.2 minutes a game over his 8 games since Feb 5 (19.6 vs 30.8). The likely reason: Jaden Hardy joined the rotation on Feb 11 and played 20.2 MPG. Partly real: about half should hold.

  • New teammateJaden Hardy joined the rotation on Feb 11 and played 20.2 MPG
Brice SensabaughF · UTAProbably real
3-point rate-13 pts

44 games since Jan 1 vs the 30 games before

Sensabaugh's 3-point rate is down 13 points over his 44 games since Jan 1 (48% vs 61%). The likely reason: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 50 games, plus 3 more key players out. Also a new teammate: John Konchar joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 26.2 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outWalker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 50 games, plus 3 more key players out
  • New teammateJohn Konchar joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 26.2 MPG
Josh OkogieG · HOUProbably real
Minutes-7.3

31 games since Feb 2 vs the 47 games before

Okogie's playing time is down 7.3 minutes a game over his 31 games since Feb 2 (13.0 vs 20.3). Most of it is the starting role change: he started 4 of 31 games, down from 28 of 47. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

  • Starting roleHe started 4 of 31 games, down from 28 of 47 (about 74% of the change)
Trey Murphy IIIF · NOPProbably real
TS%-6.4 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 41 games before

Murphy III's TS% is down 6.4 points over his last 25 games of the season (57.3% vs 63.8%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 0.7 points below what his shot spots predict (4.1 points above before), after Dejounte Murray joined the rotation. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Shot-makingHis TS% was 0.7 points below what his shot spots predict (4.1 points above before) (about 75% of the change)
  • New teammateDejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 27.9 MPG
  • Shot dietHis rim share of shots went from 29% to 23% (about 25% of the change)
Max ChristieG · DALPartly real
TS%-7.9 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 52 games before

Christie's TS% is down 7.9 points over his last 25 games of the season (54.6% vs 62.4%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 3.8 points below what his shot spots predict (4.4 points above before), with Anthony Davis out. Partly real: about 60% should hold.

  • Shot-makingHis TS% was 3.8 points below what his shot spots predict (4.4 points above before) (about 100% of the change)
  • Teammate outAnthony Davis (31 MPG before) missed all 25 games
Nikola JovicF · MIAProbably real
Minutes-8.1

19 games since Jan 13 vs the 27 games before

Jovic's playing time is down 8.1 minutes a game over his 19 games since Jan 13 (12.8 vs 20.9). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

Collin Murray-BoylesF · TORProbably real
3-point rate-14 pts

34 games since Dec 20 vs the 23 games before

Murray-Boyles's 3-point rate is down 14 points over his 34 games since Dec 20 (10% vs 24%). The likely reason: Jakob Poeltl (26 MPG before) played only 26 of 54 games. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

  • Teammate outJakob Poeltl (26 MPG before) played only 26 of 54 games
GG JacksonF · MEMProbably real
3-point rate-14 pts

32 games since Jan 26 vs the 22 games before

Jackson's 3-point rate is down 14 points over his 32 games since Jan 26 (34% vs 48%). The likely reason: Ja Morant (28 MPG before) missed all 36 games, plus 3 more key players out. Also the starting role change: he started 25 of 32 games, up from 3 of 22. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

  • Teammate outJa Morant (28 MPG before) missed all 36 games, plus 3 more key players out
  • Starting roleHe started 25 of 32 games, up from 3 of 22
  • New teammateTaylor Hendricks joined the rotation on Feb 6 and played 24.2 MPG
Caleb LoveG · PORPartly real
Minutes-10.8

8 games since Feb 1 vs the 41 games before

Love's playing time is down 10.8 minutes a game over his 8 games since Feb 1 (11.6 vs 22.4). The likely reason: Scoot Henderson joined the rotation on Feb 6 and played 24.9 MPG. Partly real: about half should hold.

  • New teammateScoot Henderson joined the rotation on Feb 6 and played 24.9 MPG
Miles BridgesF · CHAProbably real
Points-5.6

46 games since Dec 29 vs the 31 games before

Bridges's scoring is down 5.6 points a game over his 46 games since Dec 29 (14.8 vs 20.4). Much of it is playing time: his minutes went from 34.4 to 28.7 a game. Also shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 19.5 to 15.7. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

  • MinutesHis minutes went from 34.4 to 28.7 a game (about 60% of the change)
  • Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 19.5 to 15.7 (about 59% of the change)
Naz ReidF-C · MINProbably real
3-point rate-13 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 52 games before

Reid's 3-point rate is down 13 points over his last 25 games of the season (43% vs 55%). The likely reason: Ayo Dosunmu joined the rotation on Feb 8 and played 28.9 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • New teammateAyo Dosunmu joined the rotation on Feb 8 and played 28.9 MPG
Nicolas BatumF-G · LACProbably real
Minutes-7.1

27 games since Feb 2 vs the 47 games before

Batum's playing time is down 7.1 minutes a game over his 27 games since Feb 2 (13.0 vs 20.0). The likely reason: Bennedict Mathurin joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 28.0 MPG. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

  • New teammateBennedict Mathurin joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 28.0 MPG
Jordan ClarksonG · NYKProbably real
Above-the-break 3 share-13 pts

30 games since Jan 19 vs the 42 games before

Clarkson's above-the-break 3 share is down 13 points over his 30 games since Jan 19 (16% vs 29%). The likely reason: Miles McBride (28 MPG before) played only 10 of 40 games. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outMiles McBride (28 MPG before) played only 10 of 40 games
Keon EllisG · CLEProbably real
Above-the-break 3 share-13 pts

29 games with CLE vs the 43 games before

Ellis's above-the-break 3 share is down 13 points over his 29 games with CLE (34% vs 46%). The likely reason: he moved from SAC to CLE (first game Feb 4). Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • New teamHe moved from SAC to CLE (first game Feb 4)
Jordan PooleG · NOPProbably real
Minutes-8.1

19 games since Jan 9 vs the 20 games before

Poole's playing time is down 8.1 minutes a game over his 19 games since Jan 9 (19.8 vs 27.9). The likely reason: Dejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 27.9 MPG. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

  • New teammateDejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 27.9 MPG
Tyrese MartinG · PHIPartly real
Minutes-9.9

9 games with PHI vs the 37 games before

Martin's playing time is down 9.9 minutes a game over his 9 games with PHI (8.9 vs 18.8). The likely reason: he moved from BKN to PHI (first game Feb 21). Partly real: about 55% should hold.

  • New teamHe moved from BKN to PHI (first game Feb 21)
Lonzo BallG · CLEProbably real
Minutes-8.9

12 games since Dec 25 vs the 23 games before

Ball's playing time is down 8.9 minutes a game over his 12 games since Dec 25 (14.9 vs 23.8). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

Karlo MatkovicF-C · NOPProbably real
Rim share-14 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 37 games before

Matkovic's rim share is down 14 points over his last 25 games of the season (44% vs 58%). The likely reason: Dejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 27.9 MPG. Also a teammate's absence: Jordan Poole (25 MPG before) played only 9 of 26 games. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

  • New teammateDejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 27.9 MPG
  • Teammate outJordan Poole (25 MPG before) played only 9 of 26 games
Luke KornetF-C · SASProbably real
Minutes-6.9

31 games since Jan 28 vs the 37 games before

Kornet's playing time is down 6.9 minutes a game over his 31 games since Jan 28 (17.3 vs 24.2). Much of it is the starting role change: he started 3 of 31 games, down from 22 of 37. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

  • Starting roleHe started 3 of 31 games, down from 22 of 37 (about 55% of the change)
Giannis AntetokounmpoF · MILPartly real
Points-7.3

Last 25 games of the season vs the 11 games before

Antetokounmpo's scoring is down 7.3 points a game over his last 25 games of the season (25.4 vs 32.6). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 33.5 to 26.9 a game, after Ousmane Dieng joined the rotation. Partly real: about 60% should hold.

  • MinutesHis minutes went from 33.5 to 26.9 a game (about 89% of the change)
  • New teammateOusmane Dieng joined the rotation on Feb 9 and played 22.3 MPG
James HardenG · CLEProbably real
Usage-6.6 pts

26 games with CLE vs the 44 games before

Harden's usage is down 6.6 points over his 26 games with CLE (24.9% vs 31.5%). The likely reason: he moved from LAC to CLE (first game Feb 7). Probably real: about 65% should hold.

  • New teamHe moved from LAC to CLE (first game Feb 7)
How this works

Windows

Every night we split each player's regular season (8+ games on each side) in one of three ways, in this order: the day he joined a new team; the game after which his minutes and usage shifted the most (a simple two-part split); or, if neither moved much, his last 10 games. Until the new season has enough games (about 20 each for most players) we use last season and its last 25 games, which catches the roles that changed at the trade deadline.

Is it big?

A change counts as big when it reaches:

  • Points: 4 points a game
  • Minutes: 5 minutes a game
  • Usage: 4 points
  • TS%: 4 points
  • 3P%: 5 points
  • 3-point rate: 8 points
  • Rim share: 8 points
  • Midrange share: 8 points
  • Corner-3 share: 8 points
  • Above-the-break 3 share: 8 points
  • Assists: 2 assists a game
  • Rebounds: 2.5 rebounds a game

Players need 15+ minutes a game on one side. Shooting needs 40+ threes or 60+ shots on each side.

Is it real?

Both windows are pulled toward the player's whole season by a fixed amount of weight M, the sample size where a stat is half skill and half luck: (window x n + season x M) / (n + M). A change is shown only if the pulled gap keeps at least half of the raw gap: Probably real keeps 60% or more, Partly real keeps 50 to 59%, anything less is Mostly noise and stays off the feed.

M values: 3P% 501 threes, TS% 218 shots and points 9.7 games, from Is it real?; minutes 9.4, usage 17, assists 18.9, rebounds 18.1, 3-point rate 13.9, rim share 18.2, midrange 16.8, corner 3 21.6 and above the break 15.4 games, measured on 1,766 pairs of back-to-back 10-game stretches in 2025-26. That is why 3P% changes almost never make it: threes are mostly luck until a player has taken hundreds.

Causes

Rules, each with a number. Points split exactly into minutes, shot volume and efficiency. Assists and rebounds split into minutes and per-minute rate. TS% and 3P% split into shot diet (league FG% from the spots he shot from) and shot-making (the rest). Context: a new team, a move into or out of the starting five (starting lineups from our stint data), key teammates (25+ minutes before) who missed most of the window, a new rotation player (20+ minutes), and opponents' defensive rating. We keep causes that explain 15%+ of the change and show the top three.

What we measured

Backtest on 2025-26: we ran this as if the season stopped on 3 dates and checked each flag against the rest of the season. Probably real changes kept 71% of their size on average (we predicted 66%) and 88% kept going the same way (301 flags). Partly real kept 60% (predicted 55%). Mostly noise kept 39% (predicted 33%), so the pull is a little cautious, which is the safe side.

Latest run: 393 players checked, 447 probably real and 180 partly real changes, and 273 big swings left out as mostly noise.

What it cannot see

Injuries a player played through, coaching decisions, matchups and schemes, and anything off the box score. Missing teammates are read from who played, not the injury report. Causes are rough splits, not proof; when nothing in our data fits we say so.