Fri, Oct 23 · 2026-27

Player projections

Expected minutes, points, rebounds, assists and threes for every player, from recent form, the opponent's defense by position and pace. Each number comes with an 80% range.

01Projections

Fri, Oct 23 · 12 games

Based on 2025-26: nobody has played 5 games of 2026-27 yet, so these use last season's per-minute numbers and expected minutes on each player's current roster. Players with fewer than 20 games last season are left out until they play. They switch to this season's games on their own.

NYK at BOS 7:00 PM ET · ATL at CHA 7:00 PM ET · DAL at IND 7:00 PM ET · MIN at ORL 7:00 PM ET · TOR at WAS 7:00 PM ET · DET at MIA 8:00 PM ET · CHI at MIL 8:00 PM ET · HOU at SAS 9:30 PM ET · NOP at UTA 9:30 PM ET · MEM at GSW 10:00 PM ET · LAC at LAL 10:00 PM ET · POR at SAC 10:00 PM ET

Player	Matchup	MIN	PTS ↑	REB	AST	3PM
Dwight PowellForward	at IND	15	3.70-10	4.62-9	1.20-3	0.00-1
Will RichardGuard	vs MEM	12	4.10-11	1.60-4	0.90-2	0.70-2
Caleb MartinForward	at IND	16	4.30-11	2.70-6	1.50-3	0.40-1
Robert Williams IIICenter	at SACvs bottom-5 defense	11	4.30-11	4.42-9	0.70-2	0.10-1
Mike ConleyGuard	vs NYK	19	4.40-10	1.60-4	2.81-5	1.00-2
Jarred VanderbiltForward	vs LAC	18	4.40-10	4.41-8	1.30-3	0.40-2
Matisse ThybulleGuard	vs LAC	13	4.50-11	1.50-4	0.70-2	1.00-2
Jalen PickettGuard	at LAL	15	4.50-11	1.90-5	2.01-4	0.80-2
Moussa CisseCenter	at IND	14	4.60-11	5.93-11	0.20-2	0.00-1
Steven AdamsCenter	at SAS	18	4.60-10	6.63-11	1.30-3	0.00-1
Sion JamesGuard	vs ATL	20	4.90-11	3.11-6	1.80-4	0.90-2
Jordan WalshGuard	vs NYK	18	5.20-11	3.71-7	0.80-2	0.70-2
Bryce McGowensGuard	at UTAvs bottom-5 defense	13	5.21-13	1.30-4	1.00-2	0.60-2
Sidy CissokoGuard	at SAC	20	5.20-11	2.20-5	1.50-3	0.80-2
Mitchell RobinsonCenter	vs NYKvs top-5 defense	20	5.20-11	7.84-13	0.70-2	0.00-1
Baylor ScheiermanGuard	vs NYK	19	5.30-12	3.21-6	1.40-3	1.20-3
Dylan CardwellCenter	vs PORvs bottom-5 defense	21	5.80-12	7.74-13	1.60-3	0.10-1
Leonard MillerForward	at MIL	11	5.81-13	2.91-6	0.70-2	0.50-2
Kris MurrayForward	at GSWvs top-5 defense	24	5.80-12	3.61-7	1.40-3	0.60-2
Javonte GreenGuard	at MIA	15	5.91-14	2.40-6	0.60-2	1.00-2
Justin ChampagnieForward	vs TOR	14	6.01-14	3.91-8	0.80-2	0.50-2
Kyle AndersonForward	at WASvs bottom-5 defense	20	6.41-13	3.61-7	3.11-6	0.10-1
Isaiah JacksonForward	at LAL	17	6.71-14	5.12-9	0.90-2	0.00-1
Jamal SheadGuard	at WAS	23	6.81-14	1.80-4	5.63-9	1.00-2
Nah'Shon HylandGuard	at ORLvs bottom-5 defense	13	6.82-15	1.40-4	2.01-4	1.20-2
Svi MykhailiukGuard	vs NOP	16	6.82-15	1.80-5	1.40-3	1.40-3
Kris DunnGuard	at LAL	27	6.91-13	3.01-6	3.51-7	0.90-2
Kobe SandersGuard	at LAL	20	7.11-14	2.10-5	1.60-4	1.10-3
Patrick WilliamsForward	at MIL	21	7.21-14	3.11-6	1.50-3	1.40-3
Bruce BrownGuard	at BOS	24	7.32-14	3.51-7	2.00-4	0.60-2
Ben SheppardGuard	vs DALvs top-5 defense	22	7.41-15	3.21-6	1.90-4	1.30-3
Taylor HendricksForward	at GSWvs top-5 defense	19	7.61-15	3.81-7	1.00-3	1.00-2
Jamir WatkinsForward	vs TOR	21	7.61-15	4.01-8	1.40-3	0.90-2
Gary Trent Jr.Guard	vs CHI	20	7.71-15	1.00-3	1.20-3	1.70-4
Ja'Kobe WalterGuard	at WAS	21	7.71-15	2.60-5	1.30-3	1.50-3
Moussa DiabateForward	vs ATL	26	7.82-15	8.55-13	1.90-4	0.00-1
Jake LaRaviaForward	vs LAC	25	7.92-15	3.71-7	1.80-4	0.90-2
Nikola JovicForward	vs DETvs top-5 defense	18	7.92-16	3.51-7	2.30-5	1.00-2
Dylan HarperGuard	vs HOUvs top-5 defense	16	8.02-17	2.20-5	2.61-5	0.60-2
Brook LopezCenter	at LAL	22	8.02-16	3.41-7	1.20-3	1.30-3
Keegan MurrayForward	vs PORvs top-5 defense	20	8.02-16	3.31-6	0.90-2	0.70-2
Devin CarterGuard	vs NYK	18	8.02-16	2.80-6	2.40-5	0.70-2
Walter Clayton Jr.Guard	at GSWvs bottom-5 defense	21	8.12-16	2.10-5	4.12-7	1.10-2
Luguentz DortGuard	at CHA	27	8.12-15	3.41-6	1.20-3	1.70-4
Buddy HieldGuard	at MILvs bottom-5 defense	17	8.12-16	2.40-5	1.50-3	1.60-3
Ronald Holland IIForward	at MIA	20	8.52-16	4.31-8	1.20-3	0.60-2
Vit KrejciGuard	at SAC	22	8.52-16	2.30-5	1.60-3	1.90-4
Sam HauserForward	vs NYK	25	8.62-16	3.51-6	1.30-3	2.51-5
Landry ShametGuard	at BOS	23	8.62-16	1.60-4	1.30-3	1.90-4
Daeqwon PlowdenGuard	vs POR	21	8.62-16	2.40-5	1.00-3	1.50-3
Draymond GreenForward	vs MEMvs bottom-5 defense	27	8.62-16	5.62-9	5.73-10	1.50-3
Al HorfordCenter	vs MEM	22	8.62-17	5.02-9	2.81-5	1.60-3
Nique CliffordGuard	vs POR	25	8.62-16	3.71-7	2.40-5	1.00-2
Quenton JacksonGuard	vs DALvs top-5 defense	17	8.72-17	2.20-5	2.71-5	0.80-2
Collin Murray-BoylesForward	at WASvs bottom-5 defense	22	8.72-17	5.12-9	1.90-4	0.30-2
Cody WilliamsForward	at ORLvs top-5 defense	24	8.72-16	3.01-6	2.00-4	0.40-2
Marcus SmartGuard	at SASvs top-5 defense	28	8.83-16	2.60-5	2.71-5	1.40-3
Herbert JonesForward	at UTA	28	9.03-17	3.51-6	3.01-6	1.40-3
Neemias QuetaCenter	vs NYKvs top-5 defense	25	9.23-17	7.34-12	1.40-3	0.00-1
Jaden HardyGuard	vs LAC	17	9.22-17	1.50-4	1.00-3	1.90-4
Isaac OkoroForward	at MIL	27	9.33-17	2.71-5	1.60-4	1.20-3
Aaron WigginsGuard	at CHA	22	9.32-18	3.01-6	1.70-4	1.40-3
Derrick Jones Jr.Forward	at LAL	27	9.53-17	3.21-6	1.30-3	1.00-2
Davion MitchellGuard	vs DET	28	9.53-17	2.70-5	6.43-11	1.30-3
Jordan MillerGuard	at LAL	22	9.63-18	2.80-6	2.20-5	0.60-2
Royce O'NealeForward	vs ATL	28	9.73-17	4.72-8	2.61-5	2.61-5
Harrison BarnesForward	vs HOU	26	9.73-17	2.60-5	1.80-4	1.70-4
Gui SantosForward	vs MEMvs bottom-5 defense	21	9.73-18	4.11-8	2.51-5	1.20-3
Daniss JenkinsGuard	at MIA	20	9.83-18	2.50-5	4.12-7	1.00-2
Ziaire WilliamsGuard	vs LAC	23	9.93-18	2.20-5	1.00-3	1.50-3
Daniel GaffordForward	at IND	22	9.93-18	7.33-12	1.10-3	0.00-1
Zaccharie RisacherForward	at IND	23	10.03-18	4.01-8	1.10-3	1.40-3
Tari EasonForward	at SAS	26	10.03-18	5.93-10	1.40-3	1.40-3
Javon SmallGuard	at GSWvs bottom-5 defense	21	10.03-19	3.21-6	3.81-7	1.50-3
Isaiah StewartForward	at GSWvs top-5 defense	23	10.03-19	5.02-9	1.20-3	0.70-2
Tristan Da SilvaForward	vs MIN	25	10.13-18	3.71-7	1.60-4	1.50-3
Ausar ThompsonGuard	at MIA	26	10.13-18	5.93-10	3.21-6	0.10-2
Precious AchiuwaForward	vs PORvs top-5 defense	24	10.13-19	6.73-11	1.40-3	0.40-2
Jay HuffForward	vs DAL	21	10.23-19	4.21-8	1.60-4	1.50-3
Micah PotterForward	at SACvs bottom-5 defense	20	10.23-19	5.12-9	1.60-3	1.50-3
Khris MiddletonForward	vs TOR	23	10.33-19	3.71-7	2.81-5	1.00-2
A.J. GreenGuard	vs CHI	29	10.34-18	2.70-5	2.00-4	2.91-5
Kevin HuerterGuard	at MIA	23	10.43-19	3.71-7	2.71-5	1.50-3
Jalen SmithForward	at MIL	21	10.53-19	6.93-11	1.30-3	1.60-3
Will RileyForward	vs TOR	22	10.53-19	2.90-6	2.00-4	1.00-2
Jock LandaleCenter	at CHA	22	10.53-19	5.52-10	1.70-4	1.10-3
Scoot HendersonGuard	at SAC	19	10.73-20	2.00-4	2.81-5	1.40-3
Dennis SchroderGuard	vs ATL	24	10.74-19	2.70-5	4.82-8	1.00-3
Julian ChampagnieForward	vs HOU	27	10.84-19	5.42-9	1.50-3	2.20-4
Rui HachimuraForward	at LAL	28	10.84-19	3.01-6	0.80-2	1.50-3
Rudy GobertCenter	at ORL	31	10.84-18	11.57-16	1.70-4	0.00-1
Carlton CarringtonGuard	vs TOR	27	10.84-19	3.31-6	4.62-8	2.00-4
Jonathan KumingaForward	at ORLvs top-5 defense	21	10.83-20	5.02-9	2.00-4	0.80-2
Josh HartGuard	at BOS	30	10.84-19	6.63-11	4.42-8	1.40-3
Sandro MamukelashviliForward	vs LAC	22	10.93-20	4.72-9	1.90-4	1.40-3
Miles McBrideGuard	at BOS	26	10.94-19	2.20-5	2.40-5	2.51-5
Jakob PoeltlCenter	at WASvs bottom-5 defense	25	10.94-19	7.13-11	2.00-4	0.00-1
Kel'el WareCenter	vs CHI	22	11.14-20	9.05-14	0.70-2	1.20-3
Cam SpencerGuard	at GSWvs bottom-5 defense	24	11.34-20	2.60-5	5.63-9	2.00-4
Dyson DanielsGuard	at CHA	32	11.34-19	6.53-10	5.73-9	0.30-2
Isaiah JoeGuard	at MIA	21	11.54-21	2.70-6	1.40-3	2.61-5
Jusuf NurkicCenter	vs NOP	26	11.54-20	11.06-16	5.12-9	0.60-2
Pelle LarssonGuard	vs DET	26	11.74-20	3.51-7	3.41-6	0.90-2
Nicolas ClaxtonForward	at MIL	27	11.74-20	6.93-11	3.81-7	0.00-1
Myles TurnerCenter	vs CHI	27	11.85-20	5.22-9	1.40-3	2.00-4
Bilal CoulibalyGuard	vs TOR	26	11.85-20	4.31-8	2.60-5	1.10-3
Wendell Carter Jr.Forward	vs MIN	29	11.95-20	7.44-12	1.90-4	0.90-2
Deandre AytonCenter	vs TORvs top-5 defense	27	12.15-21	7.94-12	0.80-2	0.00-1
Isaiah CollierGuard	vs NOP	26	12.15-21	2.60-5	7.54-12	0.50-2
Jarace WalkerForward	vs DAL	26	12.25-21	5.32-9	2.71-5	1.80-4
Kyle FilipowskiCenter	vs NOP	23	12.24-22	7.74-13	2.81-5	1.00-2
Donte DiVincenzoGuard	at ORLvs bottom-5 defense	30	12.25-21	4.11-7	3.71-7	2.81-5
Klay ThompsonGuard	vs DET	22	12.24-22	2.10-5	1.40-3	2.91-5
Moses MoodyGuard	vs MEM	25	12.35-21	3.31-6	1.70-4	2.51-5
Derik QueenCenter	at UTA	25	12.35-21	7.44-12	3.81-7	0.30-2
Duncan RobinsonForward	at MIA	27	12.35-21	2.70-5	2.00-4	2.81-5
Donovan ClinganCenter	at SACvs bottom-5 defense	27	12.35-21	11.57-17	2.10-5	1.10-3
Jaylen WellsForward	at GSWvs top-5 defense	26	12.45-21	3.21-6	1.60-4	1.80-4
Tre JohnsonGuard	vs TOR	24	12.45-22	2.80-6	2.00-4	1.90-4
De'Anthony MeltonGuard	vs MEM	23	12.55-22	3.31-6	2.61-5	1.50-3
Max ChristieGuard	at INDvs bottom-5 defense	29	12.65-21	3.41-6	2.00-4	2.20-4
Malik MonkGuard	vs POR	22	12.75-22	1.90-4	3.01-6	1.90-4
Quentin GrimesGuard	vs LAC	29	12.75-22	3.31-6	3.11-6	1.60-3
GG JacksonForward	at GSWvs top-5 defense	22	12.85-22	4.41-8	1.50-3	1.10-3
Tobias HarrisForward	vs HOU	27	12.85-22	4.82-8	2.40-5	1.20-3
Reed SheppardGuard	at SASvs top-5 defense	26	12.95-22	2.71-5	3.11-6	2.61-5
Keldon JohnsonForward	vs HOU	23	12.95-23	5.12-9	1.30-3	1.10-3
Mikal BridgesForward	at BOS	32	13.05-21	3.31-6	3.21-6	1.80-4
Maxime RaynaudCenter	vs PORvs bottom-5 defense	26	13.05-22	7.54-12	1.50-3	0.40-2
Devin VassellGuard	vs HOUvs top-5 defense	30	13.36-22	3.71-7	2.30-5	2.31-5
Brandon WilliamsGuard	vs MEM	22	13.35-23	2.90-6	4.02-7	0.60-2
Toumani CamaraForward	at SACvs bottom-5 defense	32	13.45-21	5.02-8	2.50-5	2.61-5
Kyle KuzmaForward	vs CHIvs bottom-5 defense	26	13.46-22	4.62-8	2.81-5	1.20-3
Naz ReidForward	vs ATL	26	13.56-23	6.13-10	2.20-5	2.00-4
Jordan PooleGuard	at UTAvs bottom-5 defense	23	13.55-23	2.00-4	3.11-6	2.51-5
De'Andre HunterForward	vs PORvs top-5 defense	26	13.66-23	4.01-7	2.00-4	1.60-3
John CollinsForward	at MIA	27	13.76-23	5.52-9	1.00-3	1.30-3
Cedric CowardGuard	at GSWvs bottom-5 defense	26	13.86-23	6.03-10	2.81-5	1.50-3
Tim Hardaway Jr.Guard	vs DET	26	13.86-23	2.60-5	1.30-3	2.81-5
Brandin PodziemskiGuard	vs MEM	28	13.96-23	5.12-9	3.81-7	1.90-4
Jalen SuggsGuard	vs MIN	27	13.96-23	3.91-7	5.53-9	2.00-4
Bobby PortisForward	vs DETvs top-5 defense	24	14.06-23	6.53-11	1.60-4	2.00-4
Aaron NesmithGuard	vs DALvs top-5 defense	29	14.16-23	4.32-8	2.00-4	2.31-4
Tre JonesGuard	at MILvs bottom-5 defense	27	14.26-24	3.21-6	5.52-9	0.60-2
Santi AldamaForward	at IND	27	14.36-24	6.93-11	2.91-6	1.60-3
Airious BaileyForward	vs NOP	27	14.36-24	4.42-8	2.00-4	2.00-4
P.J. WashingtonForward	at IND	30	14.36-23	7.24-11	1.70-4	1.30-3
Paul GeorgeForward	vs NYK	27	14.46-24	4.31-8	3.01-6	2.31-5
Jaden McDanielsForward	at ORLvs top-5 defense	31	14.56-23	4.21-7	2.61-5	1.30-3
Kelly Oubre Jr.Forward	vs DAL	31	14.56-23	5.22-8	1.70-4	1.70-4
KyShawn GeorgeForward	vs TOR	28	14.77-24	5.02-9	4.42-8	2.00-4
Onyeka OkongwuForward	at CHA	30	14.76-23	7.24-11	2.91-5	1.90-4
Jabari Smith Jr.Forward	at SAS	34	14.76-23	6.43-10	1.80-4	2.10-4
Ivica ZubacCenter	vs DALvs bottom-5 defense	30	14.87-24	11.17-16	2.50-5	0.00-1
Collin SextonGuard	vs LAC	24	14.96-25	2.10-5	3.11-6	1.60-3
Jeremiah FearsGuard	at UTAvs bottom-5 defense	26	14.97-24	3.81-7	3.61-7	1.30-3
Ayo DosunmuGuard	at ORLvs bottom-5 defense	27	15.07-25	3.51-6	3.61-7	1.70-4
OG AnunobyForward	at BOS	32	15.06-24	4.62-8	1.90-4	2.20-4
Derrick WhiteGuard	vs NYK	33	15.06-24	3.81-7	4.92-8	2.51-5
Anthony BlackGuard	vs MIN	29	15.07-25	3.81-7	3.71-7	1.50-3
Nikola VucevicCenter	vs MIN	28	15.37-25	8.45-13	3.71-7	1.70-4
Jaime Jaquez Jr.Guard	vs CHI	28	15.37-25	5.02-9	4.82-8	0.80-2
Andrew WigginsForward	vs DETvs top-5 defense	30	15.57-25	4.82-8	2.61-5	2.00-4
Naji MarshallForward	at IND	29	15.57-25	4.82-8	3.21-6	0.80-2
Payton PritchardGuard	vs NYK	32	15.67-24	3.41-6	4.72-8	2.51-5
Alexandre SarrCenter	vs TORvs top-5 defense	27	15.87-26	7.44-12	2.61-5	0.90-2
Brice SensabaughForward	vs NOP	24	15.97-27	3.31-6	2.10-4	2.31-4
Stephon CastleGuard	vs HOUvs top-5 defense	29	15.97-26	4.92-9	6.94-11	1.10-3
Kevin Porter Jr.Guard	vs CHI	30	16.07-25	4.82-8	7.04-11	1.10-3
Jrue HolidayGuard	at SAC	29	16.08-26	4.52-8	6.03-10	2.51-5
Grayson AllenGuard	vs ATL	28	16.18-26	2.91-6	3.71-7	3.01-5
Matas BuzelisForward	at MIL	29	16.28-26	5.83-10	2.10-4	2.30-4
Immanuel QuickleyGuard	at WAS	31	16.27-25	4.01-7	6.03-10	2.40-5
Amen ThompsonGuard	at SASvs top-5 defense	35	16.37-25	6.93-11	4.62-8	0.30-2
Tyler HerroGuard	vs CHI	25	16.68-27	3.91-7	3.51-7	2.00-4
Josh GiddeyGuard	at MILvs bottom-5 defense	31	16.98-26	8.34-13	9.25-14	1.90-4
Ryan RollinsGuard	vs CHI	31	17.18-26	4.52-8	5.73-9	2.40-5
Coby WhiteGuard	vs ATL	25	17.28-28	3.31-6	4.01-7	2.20-4
Andrew NembhardGuard	vs DALvs top-5 defense	31	17.28-26	2.91-5	7.94-12	1.80-4
Franz WagnerForward	vs MIN	25	17.39-28	4.42-8	2.71-5	1.10-3
De'Aaron FoxGuard	vs HOUvs top-5 defense	30	17.78-27	3.51-6	5.83-9	1.70-4
Darius GarlandGuard	at LAL	29	17.79-28	2.20-5	6.43-11	2.51-5
Scottie BarnesGuard	at WAS	33	17.89-27	7.44-11	6.03-10	0.80-2
Karl-Anthony TownsCenter	at BOS	30	17.99-27	10.36-15	2.50-5	1.50-3
Saddiq BeyForward	at UTA	31	17.99-27	5.62-9	2.71-5	2.10-4
Kon KnueppelGuard	vs ATL	31	18.09-27	5.12-8	3.31-6	3.21-6
CJ McCollumGuard	at CHA	29	18.09-29	3.21-6	3.81-7	2.31-4
Zach LaVineGuard	vs POR	29	18.19-29	2.60-5	2.10-5	2.31-4
Bennedict MathurinGuard	at UTAvs bottom-5 defense	29	18.19-29	5.62-9	2.50-5	1.40-3
Jerami GrantForward	at GSWvs top-5 defense	29	18.29-29	3.41-6	2.10-5	2.20-4
Jimmy ButlerGuard	vs MEM	28	18.69-29	5.12-9	4.62-8	0.80-2
Alperen SengunForward	at SAS	32	19.19-29	8.34-12	5.93-9	0.50-2
RJ BarrettForward	at WASvs bottom-5 defense	30	19.210-30	5.32-9	3.31-6	1.60-3
Jalen DurenCenter	at MIA	28	19.410-30	10.66-16	1.90-4	0.00-1
Brandon MillerForward	vs ATL	30	19.810-31	4.82-8	3.31-6	3.01-5
Bam AdebayoCenter	vs DETvs top-5 defense	32	19.910-30	10.06-15	3.11-6	1.70-4
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerGuard	at CHA	33	19.910-30	3.31-6	3.61-6	2.91-5
Brandon IngramForward	at LAL	33	19.910-30	5.12-8	3.41-6	1.60-3
Desmond BaneGuard	vs MIN	33	20.010-30	4.11-7	4.12-7	1.90-4
Jaren Jackson Jr.Forward	vs NOP	30	20.011-31	5.93-10	2.10-5	1.80-4
LaMelo BallGuard	at ORLvs bottom-5 defense	28	20.311-31	4.82-8	7.04-11	3.61-6
Shaedon SharpeGuard	at SAC	29	20.511-32	4.21-8	2.61-5	2.00-4
Cooper FlaggForward	at IND	33	21.211-31	6.83-11	4.42-7	1.00-2
Zion WilliamsonForward	at UTA	29	21.412-33	5.83-10	3.41-6	0.00-1
Norman PowellForward	at MIL	29	21.612-33	3.51-6	2.50-5	2.71-5
Jalen JohnsonForward	at CHA	34	21.611-32	9.65-14	7.34-11	1.60-3
Trey Murphy IIIForward	at UTA	34	21.611-32	5.82-9	4.01-7	3.11-6
Austin ReavesGuard	vs LAC	34	21.812-32	4.21-7	5.12-8	2.20-4
Paolo BancheroForward	vs MIN	34	22.012-32	8.34-12	5.02-8	1.10-3
Jalen BrunsonGuard	at BOS	34	23.213-34	2.91-5	6.13-10	2.40-5
Kevin DurantForward	at SAS	35	23.913-35	5.02-8	4.42-8	2.20-4
Cade CunninghamGuard	at MIA	33	24.013-35	5.72-9	10.16-15	1.90-4
Victor WembanyamaForward	vs HOU	29	24.114-36	10.76-16	3.01-6	1.80-4
Deni AvdijaForward	at SACvs bottom-5 defense	33	24.113-35	6.73-11	6.83-11	1.80-4
Keyonte GeorgeGuard	vs NOP	32	24.113-35	3.71-7	6.33-10	2.51-5
Pascal SiakamForward	vs DAL	32	24.614-35	6.83-11	4.01-7	1.70-4
Giannis AntetokounmpoForward	vs DETvs top-5 defense	25	24.714-37	8.75-13	4.82-8	0.40-2
Stephen CurryGuard	vs MEM	30	26.515-38	3.51-6	4.82-8	4.42-7
Lauri MarkkanenForward	vs NOP	33	27.416-39	7.13-11	2.30-5	2.81-5
Kawhi LeonardForward	at WASvs bottom-5 defense	31	27.716-39	6.33-10	3.61-6	2.51-5
Anthony EdwardsGuard	at ORLvs bottom-5 defense	34	28.617-40	4.92-8	3.61-6	3.21-6
Luka DoncicForward	vs LAC	35	31.419-44	7.13-11	8.04-12	3.61-6

Small numbers under each projection are the 80% range. Defense chips rank the opponent on points allowed per 100 possessions to his position group: bottom-5 means one of the five most generous. 222 players shown.

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Projection 31.4 (80% range 19-44). Type the line from your sportsbook to see the over and under chances.

One game is noisy: even a good projection misses by several points most nights. Add it to a parlay.

02Track record

2025-26 backtest

No projected games are final yet. Here is how the model did replaying 2025-26.

2025-26 backtest: average miss per player game

Stat	This model	Season average	Last 10 average	Gain vs season avg	Inside 80% range
Points	4.58	4.69	4.66	2.2%	80%
Rebounds	1.88	1.91	1.93	1.6%	81%
Assists	1.35	1.37	1.37	1.3%	80%
Threes made	0.89	0.90	0.91	1.1%	80%
Minutes	5.03	5.43	5.12	7.4%	n/a

Lower is better. Season and last-10 averages are the simple guesses the model has to beat.

How this works

The method

Two steps. First we project minutes from a player's minutes per game this season, over his last 10 games and over his last 5 (the last 5 count the most), plus home court and the second night of a back-to-back. Then each stat is his per-minute rate (season, last 10 and last 5) times those minutes, adjusted for the opponent and the pace.

The opponent adjustment compares how many points, rebounds, assists and threes the opponent allows per 100 possessions to his position group (guards, forwards or centers) with the league. Early in a season it leans on last season's number. An opponent that allows 10% more points to his position adds about 2.1% to his points. A game 3% faster than average adds about 5.5%.

The weights were fit by least squares on 24,874 player games from 2025-26. The 80% ranges come from how far real results landed from the projection in testing, grouped by projected minutes.

How we tested it

We replayed 2025-26 from Mon, Dec 1 to Sun, Apr 12, refitting on the first of each month using only earlier games, and projected 19,968 player games. The average miss on points was 4.58, against 4.69 for his season average and 4.66 for his last-10 average. The gain is small, but it held for every stat, and 80% of real point totals landed inside the 80% range.

A gradient boosting model on the same inputs missed by 4.65 points, so we kept the simpler model. It runs inside our database every morning.

What it cannot see

Injuries, rest days, who starts and trades after the morning update. It projects every active player as if he plays, and it is graded only on players who did. Minutes are the biggest source of error: had we known each player's real minutes, the average miss on points would have been 3.74 instead of 4.58. Blowouts cut starters' minutes and are not predicted.

Until a player has 5 games in a season, his projection uses last season's per-minute numbers and his expected minutes on his current roster (last season's minutes handed out down the depth chart). That early-season mode could not be tested, because our data starts in 2025-26. Rookies without NBA games get no projection, and neither do players with fewer than 20 games last season (a few games is too small a sample) until they play this season (Decision #87).

Updated every morning for the next seven days of games. Once a game tips off its projections are frozen, and those frozen numbers are what we grade.