Last season (2025-26)
Players whose game really moved: more minutes, a bigger role, a new shot diet. Each change comes with the likely reason and how much of it should hold.
The 2026-27 season does not have enough games yet, so this shows 2025-26: each player's last 25 games (or his games since a role change or a trade) against the rest of his season. Once players have about 20 games this season, the page switches to this season by itself.
Clarkson's 3-point rate is down 23 points over his 30 games since Jan 19 (25% vs 48%). The likely reason: Miles McBride (28 MPG before) played only 10 of 40 games. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Watson's rim share is down 25 points over his 24 games since Dec 31 (23% vs 48%). The likely reason: Aaron Gordon (28 MPG before) played only 20 of 45 games. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Agbaji's rim share is down 25 points over his 20 games with BKN (26% vs 52%). The likely reason: he moved from TOR to BKN (first game Feb 11). Partly real: about 60% should hold.
Johnson's TS% is down 11.8 points over his 22 games since Jan 29 (46.1% vs 57.9%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 6.4 points below what his shot spots predict (3.9 points above before), with CJ McCollum gone. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Mann's playing time is down 11.4 minutes a game over his 31 games since Dec 29 (7.9 vs 19.3). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Howard's above-the-break 3 share is down 20 points over his 21 games since Feb 21 (28% vs 48%). The likely reason: Franz Wagner (32 MPG before) played only 2 of 23 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
McGowens's rim share is down 23 points over his 25 games since Dec 18 (32% vs 55%). The likely reason: Dejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 25.8 MPG. Partly real: about half should hold.
Mathurin's 3-point rate is down 18 points over his 26 games with LAC (26% vs 44%). The likely reason: he moved from IND to LAC (first game Feb 10). Also the starting role change: he started 1 of 26 games, down from 24 of 28. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Cissoko's playing time is down 9.5 minutes a game over his 25 games since Feb 20 (12.8 vs 22.3). Much of it is the starting role change: he started 2 of 25 games, down from 24 of 50. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Grimes's above-the-break 3 share is down 16 points over his 40 games since Jan 12 (30% vs 46%). The likely reason: Paul George (30 MPG before) played only 17 of 45 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Grimes's 3-point rate is down 15 points over his 40 games since Jan 12 (43% vs 58%). The likely reason: Paul George (30 MPG before) played only 17 of 45 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
White's playing time is down 9.6 minutes a game over his 21 games with CHA (19.3 vs 29.0). Most of it is the starting role change: he started 0 of 21 games, down from 26 of 29, after his move to CHA. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Trent Jr.'s playing time is down 9.6 minutes a game over his 19 games since Feb 12 (14.4 vs 24.0). The likely reason: Cormac Ryan joined the rotation on Mar 19 and played 21.9 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Miller's 3-point rate is down 16 points over his 26 games since Feb 20 (19% vs 35%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: Darius Garland joined the rotation on Mar 2 and played 29.0 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Kennard's 3-point rate is down 15 points over his 32 games with LAL (47% vs 62%). The likely reason: he moved from ATL to LAL (first game Feb 7). Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Larsson's 3-point rate is down 15 points over his 40 games since Jan 11 (29% vs 44%). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Black's playing time is down 13.0 minutes a game over his 8 games since Feb 24 (18.5 vs 31.5). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Partly real: about half should hold.
Saraf's 3-point rate is down 17 points over his 15 games since Mar 12 (22% vs 39%). The likely reason: Michael Porter Jr. (32 MPG before) missed all 17 games, plus 2 more key players out. Also a new teammate: Malachi Smith joined the rotation on Mar 14 and played 23.9 MPG. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Cunningham's scoring is down 10.3 points a game over his 8 games since Mar 10 (14.9 vs 25.2). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 35.2 to 25.3 a game. Also shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 23.0 to 17.5. Partly real: about half should hold.
Porter Jr.'s 3-point rate is down 19 points over his last 25 games of the season (21% vs 40%). The likely reason: Ousmane Dieng joined the rotation on Feb 9 and played 22.8 MPG. Also a teammate's absence: Giannis Antetokounmpo (29 MPG before) played only 18 of 36 games. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Wallace's playing time is down 8.5 minutes a game over his 31 games since Dec 6 (6.5 vs 15.1). The likely reason: CJ McCollum joined the rotation on Jan 11 and played 28.8 MPG. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Reaves's TS% is down 6.9 points over his 22 games since Feb 22 (60.0% vs 66.9%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 0.0 points above what his shot spots predict (4.4 points above before). Also shot diet: his short paint share of shots went from 23% to 32%. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Alvarado's 3-point rate is down 13 points over his 28 games with NYK (56% vs 69%). The likely reason: he moved from NOP to NYK (first game Feb 8). Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Okogie's playing time is down 7.3 minutes a game over his 31 games since Feb 2 (13.0 vs 20.3). Most of it is the starting role change: he started 4 of 31 games, down from 28 of 47. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Christie's TS% is down 7.9 points over his last 25 games of the season (54.6% vs 62.4%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 3.8 points below what his shot spots predict (4.4 points above before), with Anthony Davis out. Partly real: about 60% should hold.
Love's playing time is down 10.8 minutes a game over his 8 games since Feb 1 (11.6 vs 22.4). The likely reason: Scoot Henderson joined the rotation on Feb 6 and played 24.9 MPG. Partly real: about half should hold.
Batum's playing time is down 7.1 minutes a game over his 27 games since Feb 2 (13.0 vs 20.0). The likely reason: Bennedict Mathurin joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 28.0 MPG. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Clarkson's above-the-break 3 share is down 13 points over his 30 games since Jan 19 (16% vs 29%). The likely reason: Miles McBride (28 MPG before) played only 10 of 40 games. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Ellis's above-the-break 3 share is down 13 points over his 29 games with CLE (34% vs 46%). The likely reason: he moved from SAC to CLE (first game Feb 4). Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Poole's playing time is down 8.1 minutes a game over his 19 games since Jan 9 (19.8 vs 27.9). The likely reason: Dejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 27.9 MPG. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Martin's playing time is down 9.9 minutes a game over his 9 games with PHI (8.9 vs 18.8). The likely reason: he moved from BKN to PHI (first game Feb 21). Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Ball's playing time is down 8.9 minutes a game over his 12 games since Dec 25 (14.9 vs 23.8). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Harden's usage is down 6.6 points over his 26 games with CLE (24.9% vs 31.5%). The likely reason: he moved from LAC to CLE (first game Feb 7). Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Wiggins's playing time is down 8.0 minutes a game over his 15 games since Mar 9 (15.6 vs 23.6). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Anthony's playing time is down 8.2 minutes a game over his 18 games since Nov 26 (11.1 vs 19.3). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Dick's 3-point rate is down 14 points over his 18 games since Mar 3 (38% vs 51%). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Thomas's playing time is down 7.7 minutes a game over his 18 games with MIL (16.6 vs 24.3). The likely reason: he moved from BKN to MIL (first game Feb 9). Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Cissoko's 3-point rate is down 13 points over his 25 games since Feb 20 (49% vs 62%). The likely reason: Shaedon Sharpe (30 MPG before) played only 2 of 26 games. Also the starting role change: he started 2 of 25 games, down from 24 of 50. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Howard's 3-point rate is down 13 points over his 21 games since Feb 21 (50% vs 63%). The likely reason: Franz Wagner (32 MPG before) played only 2 of 23 games, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Wallace's 3-point rate is down 12 points over his last 25 games of the season (42% vs 54%). The likely reason: Jalen Williams (29 MPG before) played only 7 of 25 games. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Dick's playing time is down 7.4 minutes a game over his 18 games since Mar 3 (8.4 vs 15.8). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Cissoko's above-the-break 3 share is down 13 points over his 25 games since Feb 20 (21% vs 34%). The likely reason: Shaedon Sharpe (30 MPG before) played only 2 of 26 games. Also the starting role change: he started 2 of 25 games, down from 24 of 50. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Pickett's playing time is down 7.3 minutes a game over his 19 games since Jan 27 (11.6 vs 18.8). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
James's playing time is down 6.3 minutes a game over his 43 games since Jan 12 (19.5 vs 25.7). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Cunningham's playing time is down 9.9 minutes a game over his 8 games since Mar 10 (25.3 vs 35.2). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Partly real: about half should hold.
White's scoring is down 6.6 points a game over his 12 games since Mar 18 (10.9 vs 17.5). Most of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 17.3 to 11.6. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
McBride's playing time is down 9.0 minutes a game over his 9 games since Jan 21 (19.3 vs 28.3). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Miller's above-the-break 3 share is down 12 points over his 26 games since Feb 20 (12% vs 24%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: Darius Garland joined the rotation on Mar 2 and played 29.0 MPG. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Black's scoring is down 7.7 points a game over his 8 games since Feb 24 (8.3 vs 15.9). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 31.5 to 18.5 a game. Also shooting efficiency: his TS% went from 56.5% to 39.3%. Partly real: about half should hold.
Mathurin's above-the-break 3 share is down 12 points over his 26 games with LAC (23% vs 35%). The likely reason: he moved from IND to LAC (first game Feb 10). Also the starting role change: he started 1 of 26 games, down from 24 of 28. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
George's playing time is down 9.4 minutes a game over his 8 games since Jan 30 (25.1 vs 34.5). The likely reason: John Konchar joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 24.0 MPG. Partly real: about half should hold.
Quickley's scoring is down 7.7 points a game over his 8 games since Mar 13 (9.6 vs 17.3). Much of it is playing time: his minutes went from 32.6 to 27.0 a game. Also shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 16.3 to 13.4. Partly real: about half should hold.
Reaves's scoring is down 5.3 points a game over his 22 games since Feb 22 (20.3 vs 25.6). Most of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 20.5 to 17.0. Also shooting efficiency: his TS% went from 66.9% to 60.0%. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Saraf's above-the-break 3 share is down 13 points over his 15 games since Mar 12 (18% vs 31%). The likely reason: Michael Porter Jr. (32 MPG before) missed all 17 games, plus 2 more key players out. Also a new teammate: Malachi Smith joined the rotation on Mar 14 and played 23.9 MPG. Partly real: about 60% should hold.
Porter Jr.'s TS% is down 6.9 points over his last 25 games of the season (54.3% vs 61.2%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 4.0 points below what his shot spots predict (1.6 points above before), after Ousmane Dieng joined the rotation. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Clifford's 3-point rate is down 10 points over his 33 games since Jan 25 (35% vs 45%). The likely reason: Keegan Murray (36 MPG before) played only 4 of 36 games, plus 4 more key players out. Also the starting role change: he started 25 of 33 games, up from 3 of 42. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Harden's scoring is down 4.9 points a game over his 26 games with CLE (20.5 vs 25.4). Most of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 21.5 to 17.1, after his move to CLE. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Konchar's corner-3 share is down 13 points over his 26 games with UTA (20% vs 32%). The likely reason: he moved from MEM to UTA (first game Feb 7). Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Conley's rim share is down 12 points over his last 25 games of the season (1% vs 13%). The likely reason: Ayo Dosunmu joined the rotation on Feb 8 and played 28.8 MPG. Partly real: about 60% should hold.
Clarkson's playing time is down 5.8 minutes a game over his 30 games since Jan 19 (14.4 vs 20.2). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Every night we split each player's regular season (8+ games on each side) in one of three ways, in this order: the day he joined a new team; the game after which his minutes and usage shifted the most (a simple two-part split); or, if neither moved much, his last 10 games. Until the new season has enough games (about 20 each for most players) we use last season and its last 25 games, which catches the roles that changed at the trade deadline.
A change counts as big when it reaches:
Players need 15+ minutes a game on one side. Shooting needs 40+ threes or 60+ shots on each side.
Both windows are pulled toward the player's whole season by a fixed amount of weight M, the sample size where a stat is half skill and half luck: (window x n + season x M) / (n + M). A change is shown only if the pulled gap keeps at least half of the raw gap: Probably real keeps 60% or more, Partly real keeps 50 to 59%, anything less is Mostly noise and stays off the feed.
M values: 3P% 501 threes, TS% 218 shots and points 9.7 games, from Is it real?; minutes 9.4, usage 17, assists 18.9, rebounds 18.1, 3-point rate 13.9, rim share 18.2, midrange 16.8, corner 3 21.6 and above the break 15.4 games, measured on 1,766 pairs of back-to-back 10-game stretches in 2025-26. That is why 3P% changes almost never make it: threes are mostly luck until a player has taken hundreds.
Rules, each with a number. Points split exactly into minutes, shot volume and efficiency. Assists and rebounds split into minutes and per-minute rate. TS% and 3P% split into shot diet (league FG% from the spots he shot from) and shot-making (the rest). Context: a new team, a move into or out of the starting five (starting lineups from our stint data), key teammates (25+ minutes before) who missed most of the window, a new rotation player (20+ minutes), and opponents' defensive rating. We keep causes that explain 15%+ of the change and show the top three.
Backtest on 2025-26: we ran this as if the season stopped on 3 dates and checked each flag against the rest of the season. Probably real changes kept 71% of their size on average (we predicted 66%) and 88% kept going the same way (301 flags). Partly real kept 60% (predicted 55%). Mostly noise kept 39% (predicted 33%), so the pull is a little cautious, which is the safe side.
Latest run: 393 players checked, 447 probably real and 180 partly real changes, and 273 big swings left out as mostly noise.
Injuries a player played through, coaching decisions, matchups and schemes, and anything off the box score. Missing teammates are read from who played, not the injury report. Causes are rough splits, not proof; when nothing in our data fits we say so.
