Fri, Oct 23 · 2026-27

Player projections

Expected minutes, points, rebounds, assists and threes for every player, from recent form, the opponent's defense by position and pace. Each number comes with an 80% range.

01Projections

Fri, Oct 23 · 12 games

Based on 2025-26: nobody has played 5 games of 2026-27 yet, so these use last season's per-minute numbers and expected minutes on each player's current roster. Players with fewer than 20 games last season are left out until they play. They switch to this season's games on their own.

NYK at BOS 7:00 PM ET · ATL at CHA 7:00 PM ET · DAL at IND 7:00 PM ET · MIN at ORL 7:00 PM ET · TOR at WAS 7:00 PM ET · DET at MIA 8:00 PM ET · CHI at MIL 8:00 PM ET · HOU at SAS 9:30 PM ET · NOP at UTA 9:30 PM ET · MEM at GSW 10:00 PM ET · LAC at LAL 10:00 PM ET · POR at SAC 10:00 PM ET

Player	Matchup	MIN	PTS ↓	REB	AST	3PM
Anthony EdwardsGuard	at ORLvs bottom-5 defense	34	28.617-40	4.92-8	3.61-6	3.21-6
Stephen CurryGuard	vs MEM	30	26.515-38	3.51-6	4.82-8	4.42-7
Keyonte GeorgeGuard	vs NOP	32	24.113-35	3.71-7	6.33-10	2.51-5
Cade CunninghamGuard	at MIA	33	24.013-35	5.72-9	10.16-15	1.90-4
Jalen BrunsonGuard	at BOS	34	23.213-34	2.91-5	6.13-10	2.40-5
Austin ReavesGuard	vs LAC	34	21.812-32	4.21-7	5.12-8	2.20-4
Shaedon SharpeGuard	at SAC	29	20.511-32	4.21-8	2.61-5	2.00-4
LaMelo BallGuard	at ORLvs bottom-5 defense	28	20.311-31	4.82-8	7.04-11	3.61-6
Desmond BaneGuard	vs MIN	33	20.010-30	4.11-7	4.12-7	1.90-4
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerGuard	at CHA	33	19.910-30	3.31-6	3.61-6	2.91-5
Jimmy ButlerGuard	vs MEM	28	18.69-29	5.12-9	4.62-8	0.80-2
Bennedict MathurinGuard	at UTAvs bottom-5 defense	29	18.19-29	5.62-9	2.50-5	1.40-3
Zach LaVineGuard	vs POR	29	18.19-29	2.60-5	2.10-5	2.31-4
CJ McCollumGuard	at CHA	29	18.09-29	3.21-6	3.81-7	2.31-4
Kon KnueppelGuard	vs ATL	31	18.09-27	5.12-8	3.31-6	3.21-6
Scottie BarnesGuard	at WAS	33	17.89-27	7.44-11	6.03-10	0.80-2
Darius GarlandGuard	at LAL	29	17.79-28	2.20-5	6.43-11	2.51-5
De'Aaron FoxGuard	vs HOUvs top-5 defense	30	17.78-27	3.51-6	5.83-9	1.70-4
Andrew NembhardGuard	vs DALvs top-5 defense	31	17.28-26	2.91-5	7.94-12	1.80-4
Coby WhiteGuard	vs ATL	25	17.28-28	3.31-6	4.01-7	2.20-4
Ryan RollinsGuard	vs CHI	31	17.18-26	4.52-8	5.73-9	2.40-5
Josh GiddeyGuard	at MILvs bottom-5 defense	31	16.98-26	8.34-13	9.25-14	1.90-4
Tyler HerroGuard	vs CHI	25	16.68-27	3.91-7	3.51-7	2.00-4
Amen ThompsonGuard	at SASvs top-5 defense	35	16.37-25	6.93-11	4.62-8	0.30-2
Immanuel QuickleyGuard	at WAS	31	16.27-25	4.01-7	6.03-10	2.40-5
Grayson AllenGuard	vs ATL	28	16.18-26	2.91-6	3.71-7	3.01-5
Jrue HolidayGuard	at SAC	29	16.08-26	4.52-8	6.03-10	2.51-5
Kevin Porter Jr.Guard	vs CHI	30	16.07-25	4.82-8	7.04-11	1.10-3
Stephon CastleGuard	vs HOUvs top-5 defense	29	15.97-26	4.92-9	6.94-11	1.10-3
Payton PritchardGuard	vs NYK	32	15.67-24	3.41-6	4.72-8	2.51-5
Jaime Jaquez Jr.Guard	vs CHI	28	15.37-25	5.02-9	4.82-8	0.80-2
Anthony BlackGuard	vs MIN	29	15.07-25	3.81-7	3.71-7	1.50-3
Derrick WhiteGuard	vs NYK	33	15.06-24	3.81-7	4.92-8	2.51-5
Ayo DosunmuGuard	at ORLvs bottom-5 defense	27	15.07-25	3.51-6	3.61-7	1.70-4
Jeremiah FearsGuard	at UTAvs bottom-5 defense	26	14.97-24	3.81-7	3.61-7	1.30-3
Collin SextonGuard	vs LAC	24	14.96-25	2.10-5	3.11-6	1.60-3
Tre JonesGuard	at MILvs bottom-5 defense	27	14.26-24	3.21-6	5.52-9	0.60-2
Aaron NesmithGuard	vs DALvs top-5 defense	29	14.16-23	4.32-8	2.00-4	2.31-4
Jalen SuggsGuard	vs MIN	27	13.96-23	3.91-7	5.53-9	2.00-4
Brandin PodziemskiGuard	vs MEM	28	13.96-23	5.12-9	3.81-7	1.90-4
Tim Hardaway Jr.Guard	vs DET	26	13.86-23	2.60-5	1.30-3	2.81-5
Cedric CowardGuard	at GSWvs bottom-5 defense	26	13.86-23	6.03-10	2.81-5	1.50-3
Jordan PooleGuard	at UTAvs bottom-5 defense	23	13.55-23	2.00-4	3.11-6	2.51-5
Brandon WilliamsGuard	vs MEM	22	13.35-23	2.90-6	4.02-7	0.60-2
Devin VassellGuard	vs HOUvs top-5 defense	30	13.36-22	3.71-7	2.30-5	2.31-5
Reed SheppardGuard	at SASvs top-5 defense	26	12.95-22	2.71-5	3.11-6	2.61-5
Quentin GrimesGuard	vs LAC	29	12.75-22	3.31-6	3.11-6	1.60-3
Malik MonkGuard	vs POR	22	12.75-22	1.90-4	3.01-6	1.90-4
Max ChristieGuard	at INDvs bottom-5 defense	29	12.65-21	3.41-6	2.00-4	2.20-4
De'Anthony MeltonGuard	vs MEM	23	12.55-22	3.31-6	2.61-5	1.50-3
Tre JohnsonGuard	vs TOR	24	12.45-22	2.80-6	2.00-4	1.90-4
Moses MoodyGuard	vs MEM	25	12.35-21	3.31-6	1.70-4	2.51-5
Klay ThompsonGuard	vs DET	22	12.24-22	2.10-5	1.40-3	2.91-5
Donte DiVincenzoGuard	at ORLvs bottom-5 defense	30	12.25-21	4.11-7	3.71-7	2.81-5
Isaiah CollierGuard	vs NOP	26	12.15-21	2.60-5	7.54-12	0.50-2
Bilal CoulibalyGuard	vs TOR	26	11.85-20	4.31-8	2.60-5	1.10-3
Pelle LarssonGuard	vs DET	26	11.74-20	3.51-7	3.41-6	0.90-2
Isaiah JoeGuard	at MIA	21	11.54-21	2.70-6	1.40-3	2.61-5
Dyson DanielsGuard	at CHA	32	11.34-19	6.53-10	5.73-9	0.30-2
Cam SpencerGuard	at GSWvs bottom-5 defense	24	11.34-20	2.60-5	5.63-9	2.00-4
Miles McBrideGuard	at BOS	26	10.94-19	2.20-5	2.40-5	2.51-5
Josh HartGuard	at BOS	30	10.84-19	6.63-11	4.42-8	1.40-3
Carlton CarringtonGuard	vs TOR	27	10.84-19	3.31-6	4.62-8	2.00-4
Dennis SchroderGuard	vs ATL	24	10.74-19	2.70-5	4.82-8	1.00-3
Scoot HendersonGuard	at SAC	19	10.73-20	2.00-4	2.81-5	1.40-3
Kevin HuerterGuard	at MIA	23	10.43-19	3.71-7	2.71-5	1.50-3
A.J. GreenGuard	vs CHI	29	10.34-18	2.70-5	2.00-4	2.91-5
Ausar ThompsonGuard	at MIA	26	10.13-18	5.93-10	3.21-6	0.10-2
Javon SmallGuard	at GSWvs bottom-5 defense	21	10.03-19	3.21-6	3.81-7	1.50-3
Ziaire WilliamsGuard	vs LAC	23	9.93-18	2.20-5	1.00-3	1.50-3
Daniss JenkinsGuard	at MIA	20	9.83-18	2.50-5	4.12-7	1.00-2
Jordan MillerGuard	at LAL	22	9.63-18	2.80-6	2.20-5	0.60-2
Davion MitchellGuard	vs DET	28	9.53-17	2.70-5	6.43-11	1.30-3
Aaron WigginsGuard	at CHA	22	9.32-18	3.01-6	1.70-4	1.40-3
Jaden HardyGuard	vs LAC	17	9.22-17	1.50-4	1.00-3	1.90-4
Marcus SmartGuard	at SASvs top-5 defense	28	8.83-16	2.60-5	2.71-5	1.40-3
Quenton JacksonGuard	vs DALvs top-5 defense	17	8.72-17	2.20-5	2.71-5	0.80-2
Nique CliffordGuard	vs POR	25	8.62-16	3.71-7	2.40-5	1.00-2
Daeqwon PlowdenGuard	vs POR	21	8.62-16	2.40-5	1.00-3	1.50-3
Landry ShametGuard	at BOS	23	8.62-16	1.60-4	1.30-3	1.90-4
Vit KrejciGuard	at SAC	22	8.52-16	2.30-5	1.60-3	1.90-4
Buddy HieldGuard	at MILvs bottom-5 defense	17	8.12-16	2.40-5	1.50-3	1.60-3
Luguentz DortGuard	at CHA	27	8.12-15	3.41-6	1.20-3	1.70-4
Walter Clayton Jr.Guard	at GSWvs bottom-5 defense	21	8.12-16	2.10-5	4.12-7	1.10-2
Devin CarterGuard	vs NYK	18	8.02-16	2.80-6	2.40-5	0.70-2
Dylan HarperGuard	vs HOUvs top-5 defense	16	8.02-17	2.20-5	2.61-5	0.60-2
Ja'Kobe WalterGuard	at WAS	21	7.71-15	2.60-5	1.30-3	1.50-3
Gary Trent Jr.Guard	vs CHI	20	7.71-15	1.00-3	1.20-3	1.70-4
Ben SheppardGuard	vs DALvs top-5 defense	22	7.41-15	3.21-6	1.90-4	1.30-3
Bruce BrownGuard	at BOS	24	7.32-14	3.51-7	2.00-4	0.60-2
Kobe SandersGuard	at LAL	20	7.11-14	2.10-5	1.60-4	1.10-3
Kris DunnGuard	at LAL	27	6.91-13	3.01-6	3.51-7	0.90-2
Svi MykhailiukGuard	vs NOP	16	6.82-15	1.80-5	1.40-3	1.40-3
Nah'Shon HylandGuard	at ORLvs bottom-5 defense	13	6.82-15	1.40-4	2.01-4	1.20-2
Jamal SheadGuard	at WAS	23	6.81-14	1.80-4	5.63-9	1.00-2
Javonte GreenGuard	at MIA	15	5.91-14	2.40-6	0.60-2	1.00-2
Baylor ScheiermanGuard	vs NYK	19	5.30-12	3.21-6	1.40-3	1.20-3
Sidy CissokoGuard	at SAC	20	5.20-11	2.20-5	1.50-3	0.80-2
Bryce McGowensGuard	at UTAvs bottom-5 defense	13	5.21-13	1.30-4	1.00-2	0.60-2
Jordan WalshGuard	vs NYK	18	5.20-11	3.71-7	0.80-2	0.70-2
Sion JamesGuard	vs ATL	20	4.90-11	3.11-6	1.80-4	0.90-2
Jalen PickettGuard	at LAL	15	4.50-11	1.90-5	2.01-4	0.80-2
Matisse ThybulleGuard	vs LAC	13	4.50-11	1.50-4	0.70-2	1.00-2
Mike ConleyGuard	vs NYK	19	4.40-10	1.60-4	2.81-5	1.00-2
Will RichardGuard	vs MEM	12	4.10-11	1.60-4	0.90-2	0.70-2

Small numbers under each projection are the 80% range. Defense chips rank the opponent on points allowed per 100 possessions to his position group: bottom-5 means one of the five most generous. 105 players shown.

Check a prop line

Betting tools

PlayerStatSportsbook line

Projection 31.4 (80% range 19-44). Type the line from your sportsbook to see the over and under chances.

One game is noisy: even a good projection misses by several points most nights. Add it to a parlay.

02Track record

2025-26 backtest

No projected games are final yet. Here is how the model did replaying 2025-26.

2025-26 backtest: average miss per player game

Stat	This model	Season average	Last 10 average	Gain vs season avg	Inside 80% range
Points	4.58	4.69	4.66	2.2%	80%
Rebounds	1.88	1.91	1.93	1.6%	81%
Assists	1.35	1.37	1.37	1.3%	80%
Threes made	0.89	0.90	0.91	1.1%	80%
Minutes	5.03	5.43	5.12	7.4%	n/a

Lower is better. Season and last-10 averages are the simple guesses the model has to beat.

How this works

The method

Two steps. First we project minutes from a player's minutes per game this season, over his last 10 games and over his last 5 (the last 5 count the most), plus home court and the second night of a back-to-back. Then each stat is his per-minute rate (season, last 10 and last 5) times those minutes, adjusted for the opponent and the pace.

The opponent adjustment compares how many points, rebounds, assists and threes the opponent allows per 100 possessions to his position group (guards, forwards or centers) with the league. Early in a season it leans on last season's number. An opponent that allows 10% more points to his position adds about 2.1% to his points. A game 3% faster than average adds about 5.5%.

The weights were fit by least squares on 24,874 player games from 2025-26. The 80% ranges come from how far real results landed from the projection in testing, grouped by projected minutes.

How we tested it

We replayed 2025-26 from Mon, Dec 1 to Sun, Apr 12, refitting on the first of each month using only earlier games, and projected 19,968 player games. The average miss on points was 4.58, against 4.69 for his season average and 4.66 for his last-10 average. The gain is small, but it held for every stat, and 80% of real point totals landed inside the 80% range.

A gradient boosting model on the same inputs missed by 4.65 points, so we kept the simpler model. It runs inside our database every morning.

What it cannot see

Injuries, rest days, who starts and trades after the morning update. It projects every active player as if he plays, and it is graded only on players who did. Minutes are the biggest source of error: had we known each player's real minutes, the average miss on points would have been 3.74 instead of 4.58. Blowouts cut starters' minutes and are not predicted.

Until a player has 5 games in a season, his projection uses last season's per-minute numbers and his expected minutes on his current roster (last season's minutes handed out down the depth chart). That early-season mode could not be tested, because our data starts in 2025-26. Rookies without NBA games get no projection, and neither do players with fewer than 20 games last season (a few games is too small a sample) until they play this season (Decision #87).

Updated every morning for the next seven days of games. Once a game tips off its projections are frozen, and those frozen numbers are what we grade.