Sat, Oct 24 · 2026-27

Player projections

Expected minutes, points, rebounds, assists and threes for every player, from recent form, the opponent's defense by position and pace. Each number comes with an 80% range.

01Projections

Sat, Oct 24 · 8 games

Based on 2025-26: nobody has played 5 games of 2026-27 yet, so these use last season's per-minute numbers and expected minutes on each player's current roster. Players with fewer than 20 games last season are left out until they play. They switch to this season's games on their own.

MIA at CHA 6:00 PM ET · BKN at CLE 7:30 PM ET · MIL at PHI 7:30 PM ET · WAS at CHI 8:00 PM ET · SAS at DAL 8:00 PM ET · HOU at ATL 8:30 PM ET · NOP at DEN 9:00 PM ET · GSW at PHX 10:00 PM ET

Player	Matchup	MIN	PTS ↑	REB	AST	3PM
Ryan NembhardGuard	vs NOP	10	3.60-10	1.20-3	2.91-5	0.40-2
Dwight PowellForward	vs SAS	16	3.90-9	4.72-9	1.30-3	0.00-1
Will RichardGuard	at PHXvs top-5 defense	13	4.10-11	1.60-4	0.80-2	0.60-2
Caleb MartinForward	vs SAS	16	4.50-10	2.80-6	1.60-4	0.40-2
Keon EllisGuard	at CLE	14	4.50-11	1.20-4	0.70-2	0.80-2
Craig PorterGuard	vs BKN	18	4.60-10	3.51-7	3.41-6	0.50-2
Nae'Qwan TomlinForward	vs BKN	13	4.70-12	2.30-5	0.70-2	0.30-1
Steven AdamsCenter	at ATL	19	4.80-11	7.13-12	1.20-3	0.00-1
Moussa CisseCenter	vs SAS	15	5.00-12	6.13-11	0.30-2	0.00-1
Sion JamesGuard	vs MIA	21	5.20-11	3.41-7	2.00-4	1.00-2
Bryce McGowensGuard	at DEN	14	5.31-13	1.40-4	1.00-2	0.60-2
Spencer JonesForward	vs NOP	23	5.70-12	3.41-7	0.90-2	0.90-2
Dean WadeForward	vs MIL	22	5.80-12	4.11-8	1.60-3	1.20-3
Oso IghodaroForward	vs GSWvs top-5 defense	22	6.31-13	4.92-9	2.30-5	0.00-1
Drake PowellForward	at CLE	21	6.51-13	1.70-4	1.40-3	0.80-2
Leonard MillerForward	vs WASvs bottom-5 defense	12	6.51-15	3.31-7	0.70-2	0.60-2
Justin ChampagnieForward	at CHIvs bottom-5 defense	15	6.71-15	4.31-9	0.90-2	0.60-2
Terance MannGuard	at CLE	24	7.01-14	3.01-6	2.91-6	0.80-2
Ben SarafGuard	at CLE	21	7.41-15	2.00-5	3.21-6	0.40-2
Dominick BarlowForward	vs MIL	24	7.71-15	4.72-9	1.30-3	0.30-2
Gary Trent Jr.Guard	at PHI	21	7.82-15	1.00-3	1.20-3	1.80-4
Patrick WilliamsForward	vs WASvs bottom-5 defense	22	7.92-15	3.41-7	1.70-4	1.40-3
Nikola JovicForward	at CHA	19	8.12-16	3.51-7	2.30-5	1.10-2
Moussa DiabateForward	vs MIA	27	8.12-15	9.05-14	2.00-4	0.00-1
Draymond GreenForward	at PHX	28	8.22-15	5.42-9	5.32-9	1.40-3
Luke KennardGuard	vs GSWvs bottom-5 defense	22	8.42-16	2.30-5	2.20-5	1.50-3
Jamir WatkinsForward	at CHIvs bottom-5 defense	22	8.42-16	4.41-8	1.50-3	1.10-2
Luguentz DortGuard	vs HOUvs top-5 defense	27	8.42-16	3.51-7	1.20-3	1.80-4
Al HorfordCenter	at PHXvs bottom-5 defense	23	8.62-17	5.12-9	2.91-6	1.80-4
Nolan TraoréGuard	at CLE	22	8.72-17	1.70-4	3.71-7	1.00-2
Jordan GoodwinGuard	vs GSWvs bottom-5 defense	23	8.72-17	4.72-9	2.10-4	1.60-3
Dylan HarperGuard	at DALvs top-5 defense	17	8.72-17	2.60-5	2.91-5	0.60-2
Buddy HieldGuard	vs WAS	18	8.92-17	2.60-5	1.70-4	1.60-3
Danny WolfForward	at CLE	21	8.92-17	4.82-9	2.20-4	1.20-3
Herbert JonesForward	at DENvs bottom-5 defense	29	9.13-17	3.41-6	3.01-6	1.40-3
Marcus SmartGuard	at ATL	29	9.33-17	2.81-5	2.91-6	1.50-3
Gui SantosForward	at PHX	22	9.32-18	4.01-7	2.30-5	1.10-3
Davion MitchellGuard	at CHA	29	9.43-17	2.70-5	6.63-11	1.20-3
Aaron WigginsGuard	vs HOUvs top-5 defense	23	9.73-18	3.11-6	1.70-4	1.50-3
Egor DeminGuard	at CLE	25	9.93-18	3.01-6	3.21-6	2.31-4
Royce O'NealeForward	vs MIA	29	10.13-18	4.92-8	2.71-5	2.71-5
Isaac OkoroForward	vs WASvs bottom-5 defense	27	10.13-18	3.01-6	1.80-4	1.20-3
Zaccharie RisacherForward	vs SAS	23	10.23-19	4.11-8	1.20-3	1.50-3
Daniel GaffordForward	vs SAS	23	10.23-19	7.43-12	1.20-3	0.00-1
A.J. GreenGuard	at PHI	29	10.44-18	2.71-5	2.00-4	2.91-5
Harrison BarnesForward	at DAL	26	10.54-19	2.91-6	2.00-4	1.80-4
Tari EasonForward	at ATL	27	10.64-19	6.33-10	1.50-4	1.50-3
Marvin Bagley IIIForward	vs NOP	20	10.83-20	6.33-11	1.50-3	0.40-2
Jock LandaleCenter	vs HOU	23	11.24-20	5.82-10	1.90-4	1.10-3
Khris MiddletonForward	at CHIvs bottom-5 defense	24	11.24-20	4.11-8	3.11-6	1.20-3
Kel'el WareCenter	at PHI	23	11.34-20	9.25-14	0.70-2	1.30-3
Carlton CarringtonGuard	at CHI	28	11.34-20	3.61-7	5.02-9	2.10-4
Dennis SchroderGuard	vs MIA	25	11.44-20	2.91-6	5.22-9	1.10-3
Will RileyForward	at CHIvs bottom-5 defense	23	11.54-21	3.21-6	2.20-4	1.10-3
Mark WilliamsCenter	vs GSW	24	11.54-21	7.84-13	1.00-3	0.00-1
Jalen SmithForward	vs WASvs bottom-5 defense	22	11.54-21	7.64-12	1.40-3	1.70-3
Julian ChampagnieForward	at DAL	28	11.64-20	6.03-10	1.60-4	2.41-5
Pelle LarssonGuard	at CHA	27	11.64-20	3.61-7	3.51-7	0.90-2
Dyson DanielsGuard	vs HOUvs top-5 defense	33	11.74-19	6.63-10	5.73-9	0.30-2
Christian BraunGuard	vs NOP	31	11.94-19	4.72-8	2.71-5	1.00-2
Myles TurnerCenter	at PHI	27	11.95-20	5.32-9	1.40-3	2.10-4
Derik QueenCenter	at DEN	26	11.95-21	7.24-11	3.41-6	0.30-2
Noah ClowneyForward	at CLE	27	11.95-21	3.91-7	1.60-4	1.90-4
Moses MoodyGuard	at PHXvs top-5 defense	26	12.05-21	3.31-6	1.60-4	2.41-5
Cameron JohnsonForward	vs NOP	30	12.25-21	3.81-7	2.60-5	2.00-4
Klay ThompsonGuard	at CHA	23	12.24-22	2.20-5	1.50-3	2.91-5
De'Anthony MeltonGuard	at PHXvs top-5 defense	24	12.34-22	3.21-6	2.51-5	1.40-3
Collin GillespieGuard	vs GSWvs bottom-5 defense	28	12.45-21	3.91-7	4.52-8	2.81-5
Bilal CoulibalyGuard	at CHI	27	12.45-21	4.72-8	2.81-6	1.20-3
Sam MerrillGuard	vs BKN	26	12.55-21	2.50-5	2.40-5	2.91-5
Max ChristieGuard	vs SASvs top-5 defense	29	12.75-22	3.31-6	2.00-4	2.41-5
Nicolas ClaxtonForward	vs WASvs bottom-5 defense	28	12.75-22	7.54-12	4.11-7	0.00-1
Kyle KuzmaForward	at PHI	27	12.95-22	4.52-8	2.71-5	1.20-3
Jaylon TysonGuard	vs BKN	27	12.95-22	5.02-9	2.30-5	2.00-4
Deandre AytonCenter	at CHI	28	13.05-22	8.44-13	0.80-2	0.00-1
Brandon WilliamsGuard	at PHXvs top-5 defense	23	13.15-23	2.90-6	3.81-7	0.50-2
Tre JohnsonGuard	at CHI	25	13.15-22	3.11-6	2.20-5	2.00-4
Jordan PooleGuard	at DEN	24	13.35-23	1.90-4	3.01-6	2.41-4
Brandin PodziemskiGuard	at PHXvs top-5 defense	29	13.56-23	4.92-9	3.51-7	1.70-4
Reed SheppardGuard	at ATL	27	13.66-23	2.91-6	3.41-6	2.71-5
Tim Hardaway Jr.Guard	at CHA	27	13.76-23	2.60-5	1.40-3	2.71-5
Tobias HarrisForward	at DAL	28	13.96-23	5.42-9	2.61-5	1.30-3
Jalen GreenGuard	vs GSWvs bottom-5 defense	20	14.06-24	2.80-6	2.20-5	1.70-3
Naz ReidForward	vs MIA	27	14.16-23	6.43-10	2.20-5	2.10-4
Keldon JohnsonForward	at DAL	24	14.16-23	5.73-10	1.50-3	1.20-3
Bobby PortisForward	at CHA	25	14.26-24	6.53-11	1.60-4	2.10-4
Peyton WatsonGuard	vs BKN	29	14.26-24	4.72-8	2.10-4	1.40-3
Devin VassellGuard	at DALvs top-5 defense	31	14.26-23	4.21-7	2.61-5	2.40-5
Anfernee SimonsGuard	vs MILvs bottom-5 defense	25	14.36-24	2.40-5	2.50-5	2.71-5
Aaron GordonForward	vs NOP	24	14.46-24	5.22-9	2.50-5	1.50-3
Jeremiah FearsGuard	at DEN	26	14.67-24	3.71-7	3.51-7	1.20-3
Santi AldamaForward	vs SAS	28	14.67-24	6.93-11	3.11-6	1.70-4
P.J. WashingtonForward	vs SAS	31	14.66-23	7.24-11	1.90-4	1.40-3
Jarrett AllenCenter	vs BKN	27	15.27-25	8.14-13	1.60-4	0.00-1
Onyeka OkongwuForward	vs HOU	31	15.27-24	7.44-11	3.11-6	1.90-4
Tre JonesGuard	vs WAS	27	15.27-25	3.41-6	6.03-10	0.70-2
Jaime Jaquez Jr.Guard	at PHI	29	15.47-25	5.02-9	4.82-8	0.80-2
Jabari Smith Jr.Forward	at ATL	35	15.57-24	6.73-11	1.80-4	2.10-4
Andrew WigginsForward	at CHA	31	15.57-24	4.82-8	2.61-5	2.00-4
VJ EdgecombeGuard	vs MILvs bottom-5 defense	34	15.77-24	5.52-9	4.22-7	2.00-4
Naji MarshallForward	vs SAS	30	15.87-26	4.92-8	3.51-7	0.90-2
KyShawn GeorgeForward	at CHIvs bottom-5 defense	29	15.97-26	5.52-9	4.82-8	2.20-4
Kevin Porter Jr.Guard	at PHI	31	16.07-25	4.82-8	6.94-11	1.10-3
Miles BridgesForward	vs GSWvs top-5 defense	30	16.27-25	5.42-9	3.11-6	1.80-4
Tyler HerroGuard	at PHI	26	16.88-27	3.91-7	3.41-6	2.00-4
Alexandre SarrCenter	at CHI	28	17.08-27	7.84-12	2.81-5	1.00-3
Grayson AllenGuard	vs MIA	29	17.08-27	3.11-6	4.01-7	3.21-6
Stephon CastleGuard	at DALvs top-5 defense	30	17.18-26	5.62-9	7.64-12	1.20-3
Amen ThompsonGuard	at ATL	36	17.18-26	7.34-11	4.92-8	0.30-2
Ryan RollinsGuard	at PHI	32	17.28-26	4.52-8	5.63-9	2.40-5
Matas BuzelisForward	vs WASvs bottom-5 defense	30	17.59-28	6.33-10	2.30-5	2.41-5
Evan MobleyForward	vs BKN	31	17.68-27	8.55-13	3.51-6	0.90-2
Bennedict MathurinGuard	at DEN	30	17.78-27	5.42-9	2.40-5	1.40-3
Saddiq BeyForward	at DENvs bottom-5 defense	31	18.09-27	5.62-9	2.71-5	2.10-4
Jimmy ButlerGuard	at PHXvs top-5 defense	29	18.19-29	5.02-9	4.32-8	0.70-2
Josh GiddeyGuard	vs WAS	32	18.19-27	8.85-13	10.16-15	2.00-4
Coby WhiteGuard	vs MIA	26	18.29-29	3.61-7	4.32-8	2.41-5
DeMar DeRozanGuard	vs NOP	31	18.39-28	2.91-5	4.12-7	0.60-2
CJ McCollumGuard	vs HOUvs top-5 defense	30	18.79-28	3.21-6	3.81-7	2.51-5
Kon KnueppelGuard	vs MIA	32	18.99-28	5.52-9	3.51-6	3.41-6
De'Aaron FoxGuard	at DALvs top-5 defense	31	18.99-29	3.91-7	6.33-10	1.80-4
Dillon BrooksGuard	vs GSWvs bottom-5 defense	30	19.610-31	3.41-6	1.70-4	2.20-4
Alperen SengunForward	at ATL	33	20.110-30	8.85-13	6.13-10	0.50-2
Julius RandleForward	at CLE	32	20.210-30	6.33-10	4.82-8	1.30-3
Bam AdebayoCenter	at CHA	32	20.310-30	9.86-14	3.21-6	1.80-4
LeBron JamesForward	vs MIL	32	20.410-30	5.83-9	7.34-11	1.30-3
Brandon MillerForward	vs MIA	30	20.511-31	5.02-8	3.31-6	3.11-6
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerGuard	vs HOUvs top-5 defense	33	20.611-31	3.31-6	3.61-6	3.11-6
Zion WilliamsonForward	at DENvs bottom-5 defense	30	21.512-33	5.83-10	3.41-6	0.00-1
Cooper FlaggForward	vs SAS	33	21.611-32	6.83-11	4.72-8	1.00-2
Trey Murphy IIIForward	at DENvs bottom-5 defense	35	21.711-32	5.72-9	4.01-7	3.21-6
Jalen JohnsonForward	vs HOU	35	22.312-33	9.96-14	7.74-12	1.60-3
James HardenGuard	vs BKN	34	22.712-33	4.62-8	7.94-12	2.91-5
Michael Porter Jr.Forward	at CLE	32	23.313-34	6.63-10	2.91-5	3.31-6
Norman PowellForward	vs WASvs bottom-5 defense	30	23.413-35	3.81-7	2.71-5	2.81-5
Joel EmbiidForward	vs MIL	29	24.514-37	6.93-11	3.71-7	1.30-3
Giannis AntetokounmpoForward	at CHA	26	25.014-37	8.75-13	4.82-8	0.40-2
Jamal MurrayGuard	vs NOP	34	25.114-36	4.21-7	7.14-11	3.21-6
Kevin DurantForward	at ATL	36	25.114-36	5.32-9	4.62-8	2.20-4
Devin BookerGuard	vs GSWvs bottom-5 defense	33	25.214-36	3.71-6	5.83-9	1.80-4
Stephen CurryGuard	at PHXvs top-5 defense	31	25.715-37	3.41-6	4.42-8	4.12-7
Victor WembanyamaForward	at DAL	30	26.015-39	12.07-18	3.31-6	1.90-4
Tyrese MaxeyGuard	vs MILvs bottom-5 defense	35	26.215-37	3.81-7	6.23-10	3.01-5
Donovan MitchellGuard	vs BKN	33	26.815-38	4.31-7	5.73-9	3.11-6
Nikola JokicCenter	vs NOP	34	27.816-39	12.88-18	10.87-16	1.60-3
Jaylen BrownGuard	vs MILvs bottom-5 defense	33	28.216-40	6.73-11	5.12-8	2.00-4

Small numbers under each projection are the 80% range. Defense chips rank the opponent on points allowed per 100 possessions to his position group: bottom-5 means one of the five most generous. 146 players shown.

Check a prop line

Betting tools

PlayerStatSportsbook line

Projection 28.2 (80% range 16-40). Type the line from your sportsbook to see the over and under chances.

One game is noisy: even a good projection misses by several points most nights. Add it to a parlay.

02Track record

2025-26 backtest

No projected games are final yet. Here is how the model did replaying 2025-26.

2025-26 backtest: average miss per player game

Stat	This model	Season average	Last 10 average	Gain vs season avg	Inside 80% range
Points	4.58	4.69	4.66	2.2%	80%
Rebounds	1.88	1.91	1.93	1.6%	81%
Assists	1.35	1.37	1.37	1.3%	80%
Threes made	0.89	0.90	0.91	1.1%	80%
Minutes	5.03	5.43	5.12	7.4%	n/a

Lower is better. Season and last-10 averages are the simple guesses the model has to beat.

How this works

The method

Two steps. First we project minutes from a player's minutes per game this season, over his last 10 games and over his last 5 (the last 5 count the most), plus home court and the second night of a back-to-back. Then each stat is his per-minute rate (season, last 10 and last 5) times those minutes, adjusted for the opponent and the pace.

The opponent adjustment compares how many points, rebounds, assists and threes the opponent allows per 100 possessions to his position group (guards, forwards or centers) with the league. Early in a season it leans on last season's number. An opponent that allows 10% more points to his position adds about 2.1% to his points. A game 3% faster than average adds about 5.5%.

The weights were fit by least squares on 24,874 player games from 2025-26. The 80% ranges come from how far real results landed from the projection in testing, grouped by projected minutes.

How we tested it

We replayed 2025-26 from Mon, Dec 1 to Sun, Apr 12, refitting on the first of each month using only earlier games, and projected 19,968 player games. The average miss on points was 4.58, against 4.69 for his season average and 4.66 for his last-10 average. The gain is small, but it held for every stat, and 80% of real point totals landed inside the 80% range.

A gradient boosting model on the same inputs missed by 4.65 points, so we kept the simpler model. It runs inside our database every morning.

What it cannot see

Injuries, rest days, who starts and trades after the morning update. It projects every active player as if he plays, and it is graded only on players who did. Minutes are the biggest source of error: had we known each player's real minutes, the average miss on points would have been 3.74 instead of 4.58. Blowouts cut starters' minutes and are not predicted.

Until a player has 5 games in a season, his projection uses last season's per-minute numbers and his expected minutes on his current roster (last season's minutes handed out down the depth chart). That early-season mode could not be tested, because our data starts in 2025-26. Rookies without NBA games get no projection, and neither do players with fewer than 20 games last season (a few games is too small a sample) until they play this season (Decision #87).

Updated every morning for the next seven days of games. Once a game tips off its projections are frozen, and those frozen numbers are what we grade.