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Game plans · Friday, March 6

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Thunder at Celtics

How the Thunder beat the Celtics

  1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Thunder shoot 48.1% from midrange (1st), and the Celtics allow 42.5% there (21st of 30).
  2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Thunder defense there ranks 23rd (35.6% allowed).
  3. TempoPush the paceThe Thunder play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
  4. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Thunder shoot 35.9% from above the break (8th), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
  5. Key scorerKey scorer: Jayson TatumTatum (21.8 points per game): best from above the break (31% on 131 shots, league 35%), worst at the rim (62%, league 66%).

How the Celtics beat the Thunder

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
  2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).
  3. AttackAttack the corner 3The Celtics shoot 41.8% from the corners (4th), and the Thunder allow 39.9% there (24th of 30).
  4. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Thunder at 98.5 (16th). Make it a half-court game.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneOKC offenseBOS defenseBOS offenseOKC defense
At the rim67.2% (10th)64.8% (7th)70.5% (2nd)60.1% (1st)
Paint46.1% (7th)41.4% (4th)48.2% (3rd)39.9% (1st)
Midrange48.1% (1st)42.5% (21st)39.9% (21st)38.0% (1st)
Corner 338.1% (17th)36.2% (2nd)41.8% (4th)39.9% (24th)
Above-the-break 335.9% (8th)35.7% (24th)35.6% (10th)35.6% (23rd)

Matchups on Fri, Mar 6

7 games
  • Mavericks at CelticsFinal

    How the Mavericks beat the Celtics

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Mavericks defense there ranks 9th (34.2% allowed).

    How the Celtics beat the Mavericks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Celtics shoot 48.2% in the paint (3rd), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at HornetsFinal

    How the Heat beat the Hornets

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Heat defense there ranks 16th (34.7% allowed).

    How the Hornets beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Hornets play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at RocketsFinal

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st) and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).

    How the Rockets beat the Trail Blazers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st), and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Knicks at NuggetsFinal

    How the Knicks beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).

    How the Nuggets beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Nuggets defense there ranks 4th (36.5% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pelicans at SunsFinal

    How the Pelicans beat the Suns

    1. AttackAttack the rim40.4% of Pelicans shots come at the rim (1st most), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th) and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).

    How the Suns beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at SpursFinal

    How the Clippers beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the Spurs at 99.1 (13th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Spurs beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Spurs play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pacers at LakersFinal

    How the Pacers beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Pacers defense there ranks 27th (47.1% allowed).

    How the Lakers beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Lakers shoot 44.4% from midrange (5th), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.