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Game plans

Monday, October 26

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Lakers at Jazz

How the Lakers beat the Jazz

  1. AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
  4. AttackAttack midrangeThe Lakers shoot 44.4% from midrange (5th), and the Jazz allow 44.1% there (28th of 30).
  5. Take awayTake away the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most) and they make 47.6% (5th). The Lakers defense there ranks 9th (43.0% allowed).

How the Jazz beat the Lakers

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
  2. Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Jazz defense there ranks 30th (48.8% allowed).
  3. TempoPush the paceThe Jazz play at 101.6 possessions per 48 minutes (3rd in pace), the Lakers at 97.6 (21st). Run and make them keep up.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneLAL offenseUTA defenseUTA offenseLAL defense
At the rim73.4% (1st)72.0% (30th)66.5% (14th)70.5% (29th)
Paint48.8% (1st)48.8% (30th)47.6% (5th)43.0% (9th)
Midrange44.4% (5th)44.1% (28th)38.8% (25th)44.7% (29th)
Corner 334.9% (29th)39.2% (21st)38.1% (16th)37.7% (8th)
Above-the-break 336.3% (6th)36.4% (27th)32.9% (29th)34.2% (10th)

02Matchups on Mon, Oct 26

9 games
  • Wizards at Hornets7:00 PM ET

    How the Wizards beat the Hornets

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th) and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Wizards defense there ranks 20th (35.5% allowed).

    How the Hornets beat the Wizards

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th), and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Hornets shoot 42.8% from the corners (3rd), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Timberwolves at Cavaliers7:00 PM ET

    How the Timberwolves beat the Cavaliers

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Timberwolves shoot 36.5% from above the break (3rd), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    How the Cavaliers beat the Timberwolves

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at Celtics7:30 PM ET

    How the Bulls beat the Celtics

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Bulls defense there ranks 29th (36.6% allowed).

    How the Celtics beat the Bulls

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at Heat7:30 PM ET

    How the Mavericks beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).

    How the Heat beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pacers at Bucks8:00 PM ET

    How the Pacers beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Pacers defense there ranks 22nd (39.4% allowed).

    How the Bucks beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.6% of Bucks shots come from midrange (3rd most), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Pacers allow 39.4% there (22nd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Suns at Thunder8:00 PM ET

    How the Suns beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.9% of Suns shots come from above the break (4th most), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).

    How the Thunder beat the Suns

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Thunder shoot 67.2% at the rim (10th), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hawks at Rockets8:30 PM ET

    How the Hawks beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Hawks defense there ranks 18th (44.2% allowed).

    How the Rockets beat the Hawks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Grizzlies at Jazz9:00 PM ET

    How the Grizzlies beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Grizzlies

    1. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Jazz defense there ranks 30th (48.8% allowed).
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Grizzlies allow 44.9% there (21st of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at Nuggets10:00 PM ET

    How the Warriors beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.