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Game plans

Monday, March 30

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Warriors at Suns

How the Warriors beat the Suns

  1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd) and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
  4. TempoPush the paceThe Warriors play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.

How the Suns beat the Warriors

  1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd), and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).
  3. AttackAttack midrange11.7% of Suns shots come from midrange (6th most), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).
  4. AttackAttack the corner 3The Suns shoot 39.6% from the corners (7th), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
  5. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most) and they make 39.5% (8th). The Suns defense there ranks 3rd (36.4% allowed).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneGSW offensePHX defensePHX offenseGSW defense
At the rim68.9% (4th)67.9% (23rd)65.8% (17th)67.8% (22nd)
Paint43.4% (21st)44.1% (14th)43.7% (19th)47.0% (26th)
Midrange39.5% (23rd)42.0% (16th)42.3% (11th)43.1% (26th)
Corner 339.5% (8th)36.4% (3rd)39.6% (7th)40.9% (27th)
Above-the-break 334.1% (24th)34.0% (5th)35.1% (13th)34.4% (13th)

02Matchups on Mon, Mar 30

8 games
  • 76ers at HeatFinal

    How the 76ers beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe 76ers play at 98.8 possessions per 48 minutes (15th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Heat beat the 76ers

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at HawksFinal

    How the Celtics beat the Hawks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    How the Hawks beat the Celtics

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Hawks play at 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes (7th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Hawks shoot 36.4% from above the break (4th), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Suns at GrizzliesFinal

    How the Suns beat the Grizzlies

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th), and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Suns defense there ranks 14th (44.1% allowed).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Suns

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th) and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Grizzlies play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at SpursFinal

    How the Bulls beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Spurs at 99.1 (13th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Spurs beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Spurs shoot 43.6% from midrange (7th), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Timberwolves at MavericksFinal

    How the Timberwolves beat the Mavericks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    How the Mavericks beat the Timberwolves

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Cavaliers at JazzFinal

    How the Cavaliers beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the corner 311.9% of Jazz shots come from the corners (7th most), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pistons at ThunderFinal

    How the Pistons beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).

    How the Thunder beat the Pistons

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Wizards at LakersFinal

    How the Wizards beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).

    How the Lakers beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Lakers defense there ranks 29th (44.7% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.