Last season (2025-26)
Players whose game really moved: more minutes, a bigger role, a new shot diet. Each change comes with the likely reason and how much of it should hold.
The 2026-27 season does not have enough games yet, so this shows 2025-26: each player's last 25 games (or his games since a role change or a trade) against the rest of his season. Once players have about 20 games this season, the page switches to this season by itself.
Richards's playing time is up 12.8 minutes a game over his 20 games with CHI (22.3 vs 9.5). The likely reason: he moved from PHX to CHI (first game Feb 7). Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Lopez's playing time is up 10.4 minutes a game over his 33 games since Feb 4 (27.6 vs 17.2). Most of it is a teammate's absence: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Towns's TS% is up 8.6 points over his last 25 games of the season (67.8% vs 59.2%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 4.5 points above what his shot spots predict (4.5 points below before), with Miles McBride out. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Raynaud's scoring is up 7.4 points a game over his 28 games since Feb 9 (17.1 vs 9.7). Much of it is playing time: his minutes went from 23.1 to 32.2 a game, with Zach LaVine out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Olbrich's playing time is up 12.9 minutes a game over his 9 games since Mar 28 (19.1 vs 6.2). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Nikola Vucevic (31 MPG before) left the team, plus 4 more key players out. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Raynaud's playing time is up 9.1 minutes a game over his 28 games since Feb 9 (32.2 vs 23.1). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Zach LaVine (31 MPG before) missed all 28 games, plus 4 more key players out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Lopez's rim share is up 15 points over his 33 games since Feb 4 (25% vs 10%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Embiid's TS% is up 7.6 points over his 22 games since Jan 5 (63.4% vs 55.8%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 3.9 points above what his shot spots predict (3.3 points below before), with Paul George out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Smith's playing time is up 7.8 minutes a game over his 29 games since Dec 26 (24.1 vs 16.3). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Coby White (29 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Embiid's scoring is up 7.0 points a game over his 22 games since Jan 5 (29.8 vs 22.8). Much of it is playing time: his minutes went from 28.5 to 33.7 a game, with Paul George out. Also shooting efficiency: his TS% went from 55.8% to 63.4%. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Sengun's TS% is up 6.3 points over his last 25 games of the season (61.2% vs 54.9%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 3.5 points above what his shot spots predict (2.2 points below before). Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Mobley's rim share is up 14 points over his last 25 games of the season (57% vs 43%). The likely reason: Darius Garland (30 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: James Harden joined the rotation on Feb 7 and played 33.8 MPG. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Richards's 3-point rate is up 14 points over his 20 games with CHI (14% vs 0%). The likely reason: he moved from PHX to CHI (first game Feb 7). Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Filipowski's scoring is up 5.6 points a game over his 28 games since Feb 3 (15.0 vs 9.4). Much of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 13.5 to 17.2, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Richards's scoring is up 6.1 points a game over his 20 games with CHI (9.4 vs 3.3). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 9.5 to 22.3 a game, after his move to CHI. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Allen's scoring is up 5.9 points a game over his 20 games since Jan 28 (19.2 vs 13.3). Most of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 13.7 to 18.0, with Darius Garland gone. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Nurkic's scoring is up 6.2 points a game over his 16 games since Dec 22 (14.7 vs 8.5). Much of it is shooting efficiency: his TS% went from 49.8% to 60.4%, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Cisse's playing time is up 7.6 minutes a game over his 16 games since Jan 15 (18.7 vs 11.0). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Anthony Davis (31 MPG before) missed all 41 games. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Allen's TS% is up 7.1 points over his 20 games since Jan 28 (71.0% vs 63.9%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 11.2 points above what his shot spots predict (1.9 points above before), with Darius Garland gone. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Bryant's playing time is up 6.4 minutes a game over his 28 games since Jan 28 (15.6 vs 9.2). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Darius Garland (30 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Duren's TS% is up 6.0 points over his last 25 games of the season (72.4% vs 66.4%). Much of it is shot diet: his short paint share of shots went from 28% to 18%. Also shot-making: his TS% was 5.7 points above what his shot spots predict (3.1 points above before). Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Matkovic's corner-3 share is up 13 points over his last 25 games of the season (28% vs 14%). The likely reason: Dejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 27.9 MPG. Also a teammate's absence: Jordan Poole (25 MPG before) played only 9 of 26 games. Partly real: about 60% should hold.
Richards's rebounding is up 4.2 rebounds a game over his 20 games with CHI (7.6 vs 3.4). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 9.5 to 22.3 a game, after his move to CHI. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Adebayo's scoring is up 4.9 points a game over his last 25 games of the season (23.3 vs 18.4). Much of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 19.3 to 21.9, with Norman Powell out. Also playing time: his minutes went from 31.4 to 34.4 a game. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Niederhauser's playing time is up 7.5 minutes a game over his 12 games since Feb 4 (15.7 vs 8.2). Most of it is a teammate's absence: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Horford's rim share is up 13 points over his last 25 games of the season (21% vs 7%). The likely reason: Jimmy Butler (32 MPG before) played only 4 of 43 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: Kristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Jackson Jr.'s scoring is up 5.0 points a game over his last 25 games of the season (21.8 vs 16.8). Much of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 18.5 to 21.3, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Filipowski's usage is up 5.3 points over his 28 games since Feb 3 (23.2% vs 18.0%). The likely reason: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 30 games, plus 3 more key players out. Also the starting role change: he started 25 of 28 games, up from 16 of 49. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Lopez's scoring is up 4.4 points a game over his 33 games since Feb 4 (10.9 vs 6.5). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 17.2 to 27.6 a game, after he moved into the starting five. Probably real: about 80% should hold.
Duren's scoring is up 4.6 points a game over his last 25 games of the season (22.5 vs 17.8). Much of it is shooting efficiency: his TS% went from 66.4% to 72.4%. Also shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 17.4 to 19.2. Probably real: about 75% should hold.
Hayes's scoring is up 6.8 points a game over his 8 games since Mar 21 (13.5 vs 6.7). Much of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 9.2 to 12.6, with Marcus Smart out. Also playing time: his minutes went from 17.6 to 23.6 a game. Partly real: about half should hold.
Lopez's TS% is up 5.7 points over his 33 games since Feb 4 (57.8% vs 52.1%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 2.6 points above what his shot spots predict (3.1 points below before), with James Harden gone. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Landale's corner-3 share is up 11 points over his 23 games with ATL (18% vs 7%). The likely reason: he moved from MEM to ATL (first game Feb 5). Also the starting role change: he started 2 of 23 games, down from 25 of 45. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Garza's usage is up 5.1 points over his 22 games since Feb 24 (21.3% vs 16.2%). The likely reason: Nikola Vucevic (25 MPG before) played only 11 of 26 games. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Raynaud's TS% is up 4.9 points over his 28 games since Feb 9 (64.4% vs 59.4%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 7.9 points above what his shot spots predict (4.7 points above before), with Zach LaVine out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Matkovic's 3-point rate is up 9 points over his last 25 games of the season (43% vs 34%). The likely reason: Dejounte Murray joined the rotation on Feb 24 and played 27.9 MPG. Also a teammate's absence: Jordan Poole (25 MPG before) played only 9 of 26 games. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Bitadze's rim share is up 10 points over his 28 games since Jan 15 (89% vs 80%). The likely reason: Franz Wagner (33 MPG before) played only 10 of 42 games. Also a new teammate: Jevon Carter joined the rotation on Feb 9 and played 20.4 MPG. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Raynaud's rebounding is up 2.9 rebounds a game over his 28 games since Feb 9 (9.3 vs 6.4). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 23.1 to 32.2 a game, with Zach LaVine out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Allen's usage is up 5.1 points over his 20 games since Jan 28 (23.2% vs 18.1%). The likely reason: Darius Garland (30 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Partly real: about 60% should hold.
Ware's above-the-break 3 share is up 8 points over his 39 games since Jan 11 (29% vs 21%). The likely reason: he started 7 of 39 games, down from 27 of 38. Probably real: about 70% should hold.
Cardwell's rim share is up 11 points over his last 25 games of the season (61% vs 50%). The likely reason: Keegan Murray (36 MPG before) played only 4 of 36 games, plus 4 more key players out. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Nurkic's playing time is up 5.3 minutes a game over his 16 games since Dec 22 (29.7 vs 24.4). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Walker Kessler (31 MPG before) missed all 28 games. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Embiid's playing time is up 5.2 minutes a game over his 22 games since Jan 5 (33.7 vs 28.5). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Paul George (29 MPG before) played only 17 of 46 games. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Mobley's TS% is up 4.1 points over his last 25 games of the season (62.2% vs 58.1%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 3.0 points above what his shot spots predict (0.0 points above before), with Darius Garland gone. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Clingan's usage is up 4.2 points over his 26 games since Feb 12 (19.8% vs 15.7%). The likely reason: Shaedon Sharpe (30 MPG before) played only 2 of 27 games. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Bitadze's usage is up 4.1 points over his 28 games since Jan 15 (16.1% vs 11.9%). The likely reason: Franz Wagner (33 MPG before) played only 10 of 42 games. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Duren's rim share is up 8 points over his last 25 games of the season (77% vs 69%). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Filipowski's rebounding is up 2.5 rebounds a game over his 28 games since Feb 3 (8.8 vs 6.2). Much of it is per-minute production: his rebounds per 36 minutes went from 10.2 to 12.3, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Sharpe's rim share is up 8 points over his last 25 games of the season (75% vs 67%). The likely reason: Cam Thomas (25 MPG before) left the team. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Missi's playing time is up 5.2 minutes a game over his 12 games since Mar 13 (23.9 vs 18.7). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Probably real: about 60% should hold.
Filipowski's TS% is up 4.1 points over his 28 games since Feb 3 (60.8% vs 56.7%). Most of it is shot diet: his above-the-break 3 share of shots went from 16% to 24%, with Walker Kessler out. Probably real: about 65% should hold.
Wembanyama's scoring is up 4.7 points a game over his 9 games since Mar 21 (29.0 vs 24.3). Most of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 23.9 to 29.1. Also shooting efficiency: his TS% went from 62.3% to 64.1%. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Powell's playing time is up 5.4 minutes a game over his 10 games since Mar 25 (19.1 vs 13.7). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Anthony Davis (31 MPG before) missed all 10 games, plus 2 more key players out. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Richards's corner-3 share is up 9 points over his 20 games with CHI (9% vs 0%). The likely reason: he moved from PHX to CHI (first game Feb 7). Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Hayes's playing time is up 6.0 minutes a game over his 8 games since Mar 21 (23.6 vs 17.6). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Marcus Smart (29 MPG before) played only 1 of 8 games. Partly real: about half should hold.
Olbrich's scoring is up 4.2 points a game over his 9 games since Mar 28 (5.6 vs 1.4). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 6.2 to 19.1 a game, with Nikola Vucevic gone. Partly real: about 55% should hold.
Every night we split each player's regular season (8+ games on each side) in one of three ways, in this order: the day he joined a new team; the game after which his minutes and usage shifted the most (a simple two-part split); or, if neither moved much, his last 10 games. Until the new season has enough games (about 20 each for most players) we use last season and its last 25 games, which catches the roles that changed at the trade deadline.
A change counts as big when it reaches:
Players need 15+ minutes a game on one side. Shooting needs 40+ threes or 60+ shots on each side.
Both windows are pulled toward the player's whole season by a fixed amount of weight M, the sample size where a stat is half skill and half luck: (window x n + season x M) / (n + M). A change is shown only if the pulled gap keeps at least half of the raw gap: Probably real keeps 60% or more, Partly real keeps 50 to 59%, anything less is Mostly noise and stays off the feed.
M values: 3P% 501 threes, TS% 218 shots and points 9.7 games, from Is it real?; minutes 9.4, usage 17, assists 18.9, rebounds 18.1, 3-point rate 13.9, rim share 18.2, midrange 16.8, corner 3 21.6 and above the break 15.4 games, measured on 1,766 pairs of back-to-back 10-game stretches in 2025-26. That is why 3P% changes almost never make it: threes are mostly luck until a player has taken hundreds.
Rules, each with a number. Points split exactly into minutes, shot volume and efficiency. Assists and rebounds split into minutes and per-minute rate. TS% and 3P% split into shot diet (league FG% from the spots he shot from) and shot-making (the rest). Context: a new team, a move into or out of the starting five (starting lineups from our stint data), key teammates (25+ minutes before) who missed most of the window, a new rotation player (20+ minutes), and opponents' defensive rating. We keep causes that explain 15%+ of the change and show the top three.
Backtest on 2025-26: we ran this as if the season stopped on 3 dates and checked each flag against the rest of the season. Probably real changes kept 71% of their size on average (we predicted 66%) and 88% kept going the same way (301 flags). Partly real kept 60% (predicted 55%). Mostly noise kept 39% (predicted 33%), so the pull is a little cautious, which is the safe side.
Latest run: 393 players checked, 447 probably real and 180 partly real changes, and 273 big swings left out as mostly noise.
Injuries a player played through, coaching decisions, matchups and schemes, and anything off the box score. Missing teammates are read from who played, not the injury report. Causes are rough splits, not proof; when nothing in our data fits we say so.
