2025-26 regular season
Shot quality
Shot selection: how many points a player's shots are worth before anyone shoots them. Shot making: how many more (or fewer) he actually scores.
Reading it: +5 shot making means 5 more points per 100 shots than an average shooter would score on the same shots. +0.05 shot selection means each shot is worth 0.05 more points than the league's typical shot.
Lowest shot making
| # | Player | Shot makingMaking | Shot selectionSelection |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben SarafG · BKN | -26.71st | +0.02867th |
| 2 | Micah PeavyG-F · MEM | -26.61st | +0.04877th |
| 3 | Nikola JovicF · MIA | -22.21st | +0.00755th |
| 4 | Andre DrummondC · NYK | -20.51st | +0.15297th |
| 5 | Nae'Qwan TomlinF · CLE | -19.21st | +0.14696th |
| 6 | Ochai AgbajiG · NYK | -19.11st | +0.09290th |
| 7 | Rob DillinghamG · CHI | -19.02nd | -0.00844th |
| 8 | Herbert JonesF · NOP | -18.82nd | +0.02866th |
| 9 | Clint CapelaC · HOU | -18.62nd | +0.13995th |
| 10 | Ronald Holland IIF · DET | -18.33rd | +0.04777th |
| 11 | Nolan TraoréG · BKN | -18.23rd | -0.02234th |
| 12 | Sion JamesG · CHA | -17.33rd | +0.04274th |
| 13 | Yves MissiC · NOP | -17.23rd | +0.16598th |
| 14 | Vince Williams Jr.G · UTA | -17.24th | -0.02631st |
| 15 | Rayan RupertG-F · PHI | -16.64th | +0.00152nd |
| 16 | Jamal SheadG · TOR | -16.64th | -0.02532nd |
| 17 | Jarred VanderbiltF · LAL | -16.55th | +0.13695th |
| 18 | Tyus JonesG · DEN | -16.45th | -0.05016th |
| 19 | Sidy CissokoG · POR | -16.15th | +0.04375th |
| 20 | Rasheer FlemingF · PHX | -16.05th | +0.08388th |
| 21 | Ja MorantG · POR | -15.96th | -0.05016th |
| 22 | Danny WolfF-C · BKN | -15.86th | +0.03068th |
| 23 | Noah PendaG-F · ORL | -15.56th | +0.02062nd |
| 24 | Carter BryantF · SAS | -15.37th | +0.07385th |
| 25 | Nick RichardsC · MIA | -15.17th | +0.10993rd |
| 26 | Patrick WilliamsF · CHI | -14.87th | 0.00050th |
| 27 | Derik QueenC · NOP | -14.67th | +0.03269th |
| 28 | Mike ConleyG · BOS | -14.58th | -0.01638th |
| 29 | Bilal CoulibalyG · WAS | -14.58th | +0.02464th |
| 30 | Kris MurrayF · MEM | -14.28th | +0.10992nd |
| 31 | Mouhamed GueyeF · ATL | -14.29th | +0.09289th |
| 32 | Tre MannG · WAS | -14.19th | -0.0669th |
| 33 | Drake PowellF · BKN | -13.79th | -0.00844th |
| 34 | Jabari WalkerF · PHI | -13.69th | +0.10692nd |
| 35 | Isaac OkoroF-G · CHI | -13.410th | +0.12493rd |
| 36 | Devin CarterG · BOS | -13.210th | -0.02532nd |
| 37 | Tari EasonF · HOU | -13.110th | +0.03168th |
| 38 | Dru SmithG · MIA | -13.011th | -0.01340th |
| 39 | Jeremiah FearsG · NOP | -12.911th | +0.00554th |
| 40 | Gradey DickG · LAC | -12.311th | +0.01962nd |
| 41 | Alex CarusoG · OKC | -12.311th | +0.05279th |
| 42 | De'Anthony MeltonG · GSW | -12.112th | -0.02135th |
| 43 | Walter Clayton Jr.G · MEM | -11.812th | -0.04319th |
| 44 | Jaylen ClarkG · MIN | -11.712th | +0.04374th |
| 45 | Jordan HawkinsG · MEM | -10.813th | -0.0688th |
| 46 | Ryan DunnF · PHX | -10.613th | +0.07586th |
| 47 | Guerschon YabuseleF · CHI | -10.413th | +0.03572nd |
| 48 | Jalen GreenG · PHX | -10.413th | -0.00546th |
| 49 | Dennis SchroderG · CHA | -10.314th | -0.05812th |
| 50 | Adem BonaF · PHI | -10.214th | +0.21099th |
| 51 | Brandon WilliamsG · GSW | -10.214th | +0.01459th |
| 52 | Cody WilliamsF · MIN | -10.115th | -0.00150th |
| 53 | Jordan PooleG · NOP | -10.015th | -0.03226th |
| 54 | Cason WallaceG · OKC | -9.915th | +0.04475th |
| 55 | Tyrese MartinG · PHI | -9.815th | -0.01539th |
| 56 | Paolo BancheroF · ORL | -9.816th | -0.00248th |
| 57 | Noah ClowneyF · BKN | -9.616th | +0.00152nd |
| 58 | Jonathan KumingaF · MIN | -9.516th | +0.02866th |
| 59 | Jordan GoodwinG · PHX | -9.517th | +0.02967th |
| 60 | Dominick BarlowF · PHI | -9.317th | +0.12794th |
| 61 | Gabe VincentG · ATL | -9.317th | -0.02135th |
| 62 | Bennedict MathurinG-F · NOP | -9.317th | -0.02730th |
| 63 | Anthony BlackG · ORL | -9.218th | +0.01961st |
| 64 | Daniss JenkinsG · DET | -9.118th | -0.05812th |
| 65 | Josh OkogieG · UTA | -9.018th | +0.06082nd |
| 66 | Caleb LoveG · PHI | -9.019th | -0.03623rd |
| 67 | Jalen WilsonF · ATL | -8.719th | -0.01937th |
| 68 | Dyson DanielsG · ATL | -8.719th | +0.05982nd |
| 69 | Craig PorterG · CLE | -8.519th | +0.01760th |
| 70 | P.J. WashingtonF · DAL | -8.320th | +0.00856th |
| 71 | Bam AdebayoC-F · MIA | -8.220th | -0.01439th |
| 72 | Draymond GreenF · GSW | -8.220th | +0.03168th |
| 73 | Caris LeVertG · MIL | -7.821st | -0.02929th |
| 74 | Stephon CastleG · SAS | -7.821st | +0.02464th |
| 75 | Ausar ThompsonG-F · DET | -7.821st | +0.05178th |
| 76 | Luguentz DortG · ATL | -7.721st | -0.00447th |
| 77 | Jayson TatumF · BOS | -7.722nd | -0.02929th |
| 78 | Scoot HendersonG · POR | -7.722nd | -0.01242nd |
| 79 | Marcus SmartG · HOU | -7.622nd | -0.02234th |
| 80 | De'Andre HunterF · SAC | -7.523rd | -0.03821st |
| 81 | Jamir WatkinsF · WAS | -7.423rd | +0.03470th |
| 82 | Ziaire WilliamsG-F · LAL | -7.423rd | +0.03470th |
| 83 | Nique CliffordG · SAC | -7.323rd | -0.05313th |
| 84 | Cam ThomasG · MIL | -7.224th | -0.0833rd |
| 85 | Jake LaRaviaF · LAL | -7.024th | +0.04676th |
| 86 | Deni AvdijaF · POR | -6.924th | +0.01861st |
| 87 | Cole AnthonyG · MIL | -6.925th | -0.0795th |
| 88 | Aaron WigginsG · ATL | -6.825th | +0.01760th |
| 89 | Luke KornetF-C · SAS | -6.525th | +0.25199th |
| 90 | Shaedon SharpeG · POR | -6.226th | -0.00746th |
| 91 | VJ EdgecombeG · PHI | -6.226th | -0.00844th |
| 92 | Bruce BrownG · NYK | -6.126th | +0.02766th |
| 93 | Matas BuzelisF · CHI | -5.926th | +0.07385th |
| 94 | Keegan MurrayF · SAC | -5.727th | -0.0911st |
| 95 | Jalen WilliamsG-F · OKC | -5.727th | -0.01439th |
| 96 | D'Angelo RussellG · DAL | -5.727th | -0.0824th |
| 97 | Justin ChampagnieF · WAS | -5.628th | +0.08488th |
| 98 | Kentavious Caldwell-PopeG · PHI | -5.628th | -0.0659th |
| 99 | Saddiq BeyF · NOP | -5.528th | +0.02363rd |
| 100 | Zaccharie RisacherF · DAL | -5.528th | +0.05380th |
| 101 | Russell WestbrookG · SAC | -5.329th | -0.03226th |
| 102 | Anthony DavisF-C · WAS | -5.329th | +0.00454th |
| 103 | Josh GiddeyG · CHI | -5.329th | +0.00151st |
| 104 | Terance MannG · BKN | -5.330th | +0.02464th |
| 105 | Donovan ClinganC · POR | -5.130th | +0.12393rd |
| 106 | Will RileyF · WAS | -5.130th | -0.03722nd |
| 107 | Domantas SabonisF · SAC | -5.030th | +0.06784th |
| 108 | Taylor HendricksF · MEM | -4.831st | +0.05380th |
| 109 | Kevin Porter Jr.G · MIL | -4.831st | -0.02433rd |
| 110 | Quentin GrimesG · LAL | -4.831st | +0.02565th |
| 111 | Karl-Anthony TownsC · NYK | -4.732nd | +0.06784th |
| 112 | Quenton JacksonG · IND | -4.532nd | +0.02162nd |
| 113 | Jarace WalkerF · IND | -4.532nd | -0.02730th |
| 114 | Alexandre SarrC · WAS | -4.332nd | -0.00943rd |
| 115 | Tyrese ProctorG · CLE | -4.233rd | -0.01340th |
| 116 | Cooper FlaggF · DAL | -4.233rd | -0.05314th |
| 117 | Collin Murray-BoylesF · TOR | -4.133rd | +0.15797th |
| 118 | Derrick WhiteG · BOS | -4.134th | -0.0746th |
| 119 | Miles BridgesF · PHX | -4.134th | +0.00957th |
| 120 | Ben SheppardG · IND | -4.034th | +0.03470th |
| 121 | Julius RandleF · BKN | -4.034th | +0.00151st |
| 122 | Kevin HuerterG · DET | -3.935th | +0.01961st |
| 123 | Pat SpencerG · PHX | -3.935th | -0.06111th |
| 124 | Ousmane DiengF · MIL | -3.935th | -0.05016th |
| 125 | Jamaree BouyeaG · PHX | -3.736th | -0.04220th |
| 126 | Dylan HarperG · SAS | -3.636th | +0.04777th |
| 127 | Trendon WatfordF · NOP | -3.636th | +0.01258th |
| 128 | Ryan NembhardG · CHA | -3.436th | -0.1031st |
| 129 | Dean WadeF · PHI | -3.337th | +0.07585th |
| 130 | Precious AchiuwaF · SAC | -3.137th | +0.04375th |
| 131 | Mohamed DiawaraF · NYK | -3.037th | +0.00957th |
| 132 | Christian BraunG · DEN | -2.838th | +0.08689th |
| 133 | Amen ThompsonG-F · HOU | -2.838th | +0.02867th |
| 134 | Aaron NesmithG-F · IND | -2.838th | -0.03027th |
| 135 | Jaylen WellsF · MEM | -2.738th | -0.01738th |
| 136 | Nicolas ClaxtonF-C · CHI | -2.739th | +0.08388th |
| 137 | RJ BarrettF-G · TOR | -2.739th | +0.03672nd |
| 138 | Jordan ClarksonG · NYK | -2.739th | -0.02829th |
| 139 | Khris MiddletonF · WAS | -2.640th | -0.1001st |
| 140 | Derrick Jones Jr.F-G · LAC | -2.540th | +0.07686th |
| 141 | Kobe BrownF · IND | -2.440th | +0.06283rd |
| 142 | Pelle LarssonG · MIA | -2.440th | +0.03471st |
| 143 | Jett HowardG · DAL | -2.241st | -0.01341st |
| 144 | Franz WagnerF · ORL | -2.141st | -0.01341st |
| 145 | Hugo GonzálezG · BOS | -2.041st | +0.05179th |
| 146 | Simone FontecchioF · MIA | -2.042nd | +0.01659th |
| 147 | GG JacksonF · MEM | -1.942nd | +0.04174th |
| 148 | Kyle FilipowskiC · UTA | -1.942nd | +0.02463rd |
| 149 | Jerami GrantF · MEM | -1.842nd | +0.02263rd |
| 150 | Scottie BarnesG-F · TOR | -1.843rd | +0.00151st |
| 151 | Jose AlvaradoG · NYK | -1.743rd | -0.01638th |
| 152 | Jalen SuggsG · ORL | -1.743rd | -0.01738th |
| 153 | Airious BaileyF · UTA | -1.744th | -0.03523rd |
| 154 | Kelly Oubre Jr.F · IND | -1.544th | +0.01659th |
| 155 | Kyle KuzmaF · MIL | -1.444th | +0.02765th |
| 156 | Cade CunninghamG-F · DET | -1.444th | -0.05115th |
| 157 | Coby WhiteG · CHA | -1.345th | -0.00447th |
| 158 | Javonte GreenG-F · DET | -1.045th | +0.03973rd |
| 159 | Cedric CowardG · MEM | -0.945th | +0.00152nd |
| 160 | Kristaps PorzingisF-C · GSW | -0.846th | -0.05215th |
| 161 | Tyler KolekG · NYK | -0.846th | -0.03524th |
| 162 | Daeqwon PlowdenG-F · SAC | -0.846th | -0.00149th |
| 163 | Evan MobleyF-C · CLE | -0.746th | +0.08087th |
| 164 | LaMelo BallG · MIN | -0.647th | -0.05314th |
| 165 | Dillon BrooksG-F · PHX | -0.647th | -0.0833rd |
| 166 | OG AnunobyF · NYK | -0.647th | +0.07987th |
| 167 | Quinten PostC · MEM | -0.648th | +0.00554th |
| 168 | Jalen JohnsonF · ATL | -0.448th | -0.01440th |
| 169 | Gary Trent Jr.G · MIL | -0.448th | -0.05313th |
| 170 | Bryce McGowensG · NOP | -0.348th | +0.03571st |
| 171 | Jared McCainG · OKC | -0.349th | -0.03226th |
| 172 | Jevon CarterG · ORL | -0.349th | -0.03921st |
| 173 | Jalen SmithF-C · CHI | -0.349th | +0.08387th |
| 174 | Isaiah CollierG · UTA | -0.150th | -0.05017th |
| 175 | Wendell Carter Jr.F · ORL | +0.150th | +0.04476th |
| 176 | Toumani CamaraF · POR | +0.250th | +0.03369th |
| 177 | Kel'el WareC · MIL | +0.250th | +0.10992nd |
| 178 | Egor DeminG · BKN | +0.351st | -0.02036th |
| 179 | Tristan Da SilvaF · ORL | +0.351st | -0.00150th |
| 180 | Alperen SengunF-C · HOU | +0.551st | -0.02234th |
| 181 | Tyrese MaxeyG · PHI | +0.552nd | -0.02532nd |
| 182 | Jusuf NurkicC · UTA | +0.652nd | -0.02135th |
| 183 | Day'Ron SharpeC · BKN | +0.652nd | +0.13094th |
| 184 | Grayson AllenG · CHA | +0.652nd | -0.05215th |
| 185 | Brook LopezC · LAC | +0.653rd | -0.03127th |
| 186 | Tre JonesG · CHI | +0.653rd | +0.07485th |
| 187 | Tre JohnsonG · WAS | +0.753rd | -0.0833rd |
| 188 | Devin BookerG · PHX | +0.754th | -0.0843rd |
| 189 | Donte DiVincenzoG · MIN | +0.854th | +0.00454th |
| 190 | Pascal SiakamF · IND | +0.854th | -0.04120th |
| 191 | Jabari Smith Jr.F · HOU | +0.954th | -0.02036th |
| 192 | Jaime Jaquez Jr.G · MIL | +0.955th | -0.02433rd |
| 193 | Will RichardG · GSW | +0.955th | +0.04576th |
| 194 | James HardenG · CLE | +0.955th | -0.04220th |
| 195 | Jalen PickettG · LAC | +1.056th | -0.04518th |
| 196 | Andrew NembhardG-F · IND | +1.056th | -0.0765th |
| 197 | Lauri MarkkanenF · UTA | +1.156th | -0.00546th |
| 198 | KyShawn GeorgeF · WAS | +1.256th | -0.05413th |
| 199 | Jimmy ButlerG-F · GSW | +1.257th | +0.00856th |
| 200 | Al HorfordC-F · GSW | +1.357th | -0.02730th |
| 201 | Moussa DiabateF · CHA | +1.357th | +0.16197th |
| 202 | Zion WilliamsonF · NOP | +1.458th | +0.09691st |
| 203 | Kenrich WilliamsG-F · OKC | +1.458th | +0.00957th |
| 204 | Tobias HarrisF · SAS | +1.558th | -0.04419th |
| 205 | Jay HuffF-C · IND | +1.658th | +0.04074th |
| 206 | Joel EmbiidF-C · PHI | +1.659th | -0.05314th |
| 207 | Buddy HieldG · CHA | +1.759th | -0.00745th |
| 208 | Ajay MitchellG · OKC | +1.759th | -0.03523rd |
| 209 | Leonard MillerF · CHI | +1.760th | +0.12193rd |
| 210 | Klay ThompsonG · MIA | +1.760th | -0.04518th |
| 211 | Onyeka OkongwuF-C · ATL | +1.760th | +0.02062nd |
| 212 | Jordan WalshG · BOS | +1.860th | +0.08989th |
| 213 | Keldon JohnsonF · SAS | +1.961st | +0.05380th |
| 214 | Jock LandaleC · ATL | +1.961st | +0.05481st |
| 215 | Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · ATL | +2.061st | +0.01458th |
| 216 | Victor WembanyamaF-C · SAS | +2.062nd | +0.02564th |
| 217 | Peyton WatsonG · CLE | +2.162nd | +0.00956th |
| 218 | Jaden IveyG · CHI | +2.162nd | -0.02631st |
| 219 | Brandon MillerF · CHA | +2.262nd | -0.04717th |
| 220 | Santi AldamaF · DAL | +2.263rd | -0.00843rd |
| 221 | Myles TurnerC-F · MIL | +2.263rd | -0.00746th |
| 222 | Ja'Kobe WalterG · TOR | +2.263rd | +0.05078th |
| 223 | Justin EdwardsF · PHI | +2.364th | -0.01142nd |
| 224 | Aaron GordonF · DEN | +2.464th | +0.03369th |
| 225 | LeBron JamesF · PHI | +2.464th | -0.00348th |
| 226 | Corey KispertF · ATL | +2.564th | +0.03973rd |
| 227 | Collin SextonG · LAL | +2.565th | +0.00453rd |
| 228 | Kasparas JakučionisG · MIL | +2.665th | +0.01760th |
| 229 | Andrew WigginsF-G · MIA | +2.665th | +0.00253rd |
| 230 | Keon EllisG · BKN | +2.866th | -0.00248th |
| 231 | Jaylen BrownG · PHI | +2.866th | -0.0746th |
| 232 | Naz ReidF-C · CHA | +3.066th | -0.02333rd |
| 233 | Kris DunnG · LAC | +3.066th | -0.00249th |
| 234 | Landry ShametG · NYK | +3.167th | +0.03470th |
| 235 | Jaden HardyG · LAL | +3.267th | -0.03226th |
| 236 | Julian ChampagnieF · SAS | +3.267th | +0.03268th |
| 237 | Michael Porter Jr.F · BKN | +3.268th | -0.01242nd |
| 238 | Rudy GobertC · MIN | +3.468th | +0.23699th |
| 239 | Jaylin WilliamsF · OKC | +3.468th | -0.00150th |
| 240 | Jrue HolidayG · POR | +3.568th | -0.03225th |
| 241 | Giannis AntetokounmpoF · MIA | +3.669th | +0.14696th |
| 242 | Brandon IngramF · LAC | +3.669th | -0.0697th |
| 243 | Harrison BarnesF · SAS | +3.769th | +0.02665th |
| 244 | De'Aaron FoxG · SAS | +3.770th | -0.03027th |
| 245 | Naji MarshallF · DAL | +3.970th | -0.03425th |
| 246 | Desmond BaneG · ORL | +3.970th | -0.02532nd |
| 247 | Paul GeorgeF · BOS | +4.070th | -0.05911th |
| 248 | Gui SantosF · GSW | +4.171st | +0.03772nd |
| 249 | Max ChristieG · DAL | +4.171st | -0.00249th |
| 250 | Norman PowellF-G · CHI | +4.271st | -0.01837th |
| 251 | Thomas BryantC · CLE | +4.272nd | +0.05481st |
| 252 | Brandin PodziemskiG · GSW | +4.272nd | -0.04617th |
| 253 | Jaren Jackson Jr.F-C · UTA | +4.272nd | -0.06510th |
| 254 | Isaiah StewartF-C · MEM | +4.272nd | +0.06584th |
| 255 | Mikal BridgesF · NYK | +4.373rd | +0.00756th |
| 256 | Devin VassellG-F · SAS | +4.473rd | -0.04121st |
| 257 | Ryan RollinsG · MIL | +4.473rd | -0.01341st |
| 258 | Jaylon TysonG-F · CLE | +4.474th | +0.04877th |
| 259 | Ayo DosunmuG · MIN | +4.574th | +0.06283rd |
| 260 | CJ McCollumG · ATL | +4.674th | -0.06111th |
| 261 | Isaiah JacksonF · LAC | +4.674th | +0.13795th |
| 262 | Keyonte GeorgeG · UTA | +4.675th | -0.0717th |
| 263 | Malik MonkG · SAC | +4.775th | -0.0659th |
| 264 | Ivica ZubacC · IND | +4.975th | +0.05481st |
| 265 | Mitchell RobinsonC · BOS | +5.176th | +0.30499th |
| 266 | Immanuel QuickleyG · TOR | +5.176th | -0.06011th |
| 267 | Spencer JonesF · DEN | +5.276th | +0.07886th |
| 268 | Mark WilliamsC · PHX | +5.277th | +0.14796th |
| 269 | Jalen BrunsonG · NYK | +5.277th | -0.0775th |
| 270 | Kyle AndersonF · TOR | +5.377th | -0.06510th |
| 271 | Julian StrawtherG · DEN | +5.477th | -0.02928th |
| 272 | Josh HartG · NYK | +5.578th | +0.03973rd |
| 273 | Nikola VucevicC · ORL | +5.578th | -0.03523rd |
| 274 | Jordan MillerG · LAC | +5.678th | +0.01158th |
| 275 | Nah'Shon HylandG · MIN | +5.679th | +0.00655th |
| 276 | Trey Murphy IIIF · NOP | +5.779th | -0.00248th |
| 277 | Moses MoodyG · GSW | +5.879th | +0.00252nd |
| 278 | Isaiah HartensteinF-C · OKC | +5.879th | +0.09490th |
| 279 | Darius GarlandG · LAC | +5.880th | -0.04817th |
| 280 | Goga BitadzeC · ORL | +6.080th | +0.20899th |
| 281 | Brice SensabaughF · UTA | +6.180th | -0.04319th |
| 282 | Sharife CooperG · WAS | +6.181st | -0.00745th |
| 283 | Daniel GaffordF · DAL | +6.381st | +0.15297th |
| 284 | Aaron HolidayG · HOU | +6.381st | -0.05613th |
| 285 | Davion MitchellG · MIA | +6.481st | -0.01042nd |
| 286 | Tristan VukcevicF · WAS | +6.582nd | -0.03921st |
| 287 | Miles McBrideG · NYK | +6.682nd | -0.03325th |
| 288 | Gary Payton IIG · GSW | +6.782nd | +0.09891st |
| 289 | Donovan MitchellG · CLE | +6.983rd | -0.03524th |
| 290 | Carlton CarringtonG · WAS | +6.983rd | -0.0852nd |
| 291 | Sandro MamukelashviliF · LAL | +7.383rd | +0.06483rd |
| 292 | Jaden McDanielsF · MIN | +7.583rd | -0.00943rd |
| 293 | Reed SheppardG · HOU | +7.684th | -0.0679th |
| 294 | Kobe SandersG · LAC | +7.684th | -0.02730th |
| 295 | Javon SmallG · MEM | +7.784th | -0.03028th |
| 296 | Cameron JohnsonF · DEN | +8.385th | +0.01760th |
| 297 | Collin GillespieG · PHX | +8.585th | -0.06310th |
| 298 | Austin ReavesG · LAL | +8.685th | -0.04319th |
| 299 | Chet HolmgrenC-F · OKC | +8.685th | +0.05179th |
| 300 | Jonas ValanciunasC · DEN | +8.786th | +0.00655th |
| 301 | Anthony EdwardsG · MIN | +9.186th | -0.03722nd |
| 302 | Zach LaVineG · SAC | +9.386th | -0.04518th |
| 303 | Anfernee SimonsG · PHI | +9.387th | -0.0794th |
| 304 | DeMar DeRozanG · DEN | +9.387th | -0.1451st |
| 305 | Nicolas BatumF-G · LAC | +9.887th | +0.00453rd |
| 306 | Olivier-Maxence ProsperF · MEM | +9.987th | +0.07887th |
| 307 | Vit KrejciG · POR | +10.288th | -0.00347th |
| 308 | Marvin Bagley IIIF · DEN | +10.588th | +0.10291st |
| 309 | Sam HauserF · BOS | +10.688th | -0.02928th |
| 310 | Royce O'NealeF · CHA | +10.889th | -0.02036th |
| 311 | Payton PritchardG · BOS | +10.989th | -0.0785th |
| 312 | Neemias QuetaC · BOS | +11.389th | +0.10491st |
| 313 | John CollinsF-C · DET | +11.489th | +0.03571st |
| 314 | Tyler HerroG · MIL | +11.690th | -0.0852nd |
| 315 | Jalen DurenC · DET | +11.790th | +0.09290th |
| 316 | Luka DoncicF-G · LAL | +12.290th | -0.0882nd |
| 317 | Jamal MurrayG · DEN | +12.291st | -0.0707th |
| 318 | Svi MykhailiukG · UTA | +12.391st | +0.01358th |
| 319 | Kawhi LeonardF · TOR | +12.391st | -0.0688th |
| 320 | Oso IghodaroF · PHX | +12.491st | +0.09189th |
| 321 | Paul ReedF · DET | +12.492nd | +0.05681st |
| 322 | Kon KnueppelG-F · CHA | +12.592nd | -0.01440th |
| 323 | Tim Hardaway Jr.G · MIA | +12.692nd | -0.03424th |
| 324 | Baylor ScheiermanG · BOS | +12.993rd | -0.02234th |
| 325 | T.J. McConnellG · IND | +13.193rd | -0.1121st |
| 326 | Jarrett AllenC · CLE | +13.293rd | +0.05882nd |
| 327 | Josh MinottF · BKN | +13.593rd | +0.02866th |
| 328 | Ty JeromeG · MEM | +13.594th | -0.0824th |
| 329 | Bobby PortisF · MIA | +13.994th | -0.0746th |
| 330 | Stephen CurryG · GSW | +13.994th | -0.05612th |
| 331 | Karlo MatkovicF-C · NOP | +14.295th | +0.13795th |
| 332 | Duncan RobinsonF · DET | +14.295th | -0.00744th |
| 333 | Micah PotterF · POR | +14.495th | +0.03872nd |
| 334 | A.J. GreenG · MIL | +15.295th | -0.02036th |
| 335 | Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · OKC | +15.296th | -0.05115th |
| 336 | Maxime RaynaudC · SAC | +15.596th | -0.0698th |
| 337 | Rui HachimuraF · LAC | +16.196th | -0.03028th |
| 338 | Sam MerrillG · CLE | +16.497th | -0.00745th |
| 339 | Luka GarzaC · BOS | +16.697th | +0.05179th |
| 340 | Isaiah JoeG · DET | +17.197th | -0.01937th |
| 341 | Robert Williams IIIC-F · POR | +17.597th | +0.18598th |
| 342 | Jakob PoeltlC · TOR | +17.798th | +0.13294th |
| 343 | Anthony GillF · WAS | +18.298th | +0.06283rd |
| 344 | Nikola JokicC · DEN | +18.398th | -0.03722nd |
| 345 | Cam SpencerG · MEM | +18.999th | -0.0717th |
| 346 | Kevin DurantF · HOU | +19.499th | -0.1091st |
| 347 | Ryan KalkbrennerC · CHA | +19.599th | +0.21999th |
| 348 | Deandre AytonC · WAS | +19.999th | +0.05178th |
| 349 | Jaxson HayesC · UTA | +24.799th | +0.18498th |
| 350 | Luke KennardG · PHX | +26.799th | -0.02631st |
Percentiles are among all players with 200+ shots. Tap a player for his shot chart in the Quality view.
How this works
The method
Every shot gets an expected make chance from a logistic regression fit on 219,152 2025-26 regular-season shots. It uses only what the play-by-play records: distance (2 ft steps), two or three, corner three, paint or midrange, shot type (layup or dunk, jumper, floater or hook), fourth quarter or overtime, the last 24 seconds of a period, and home or away.
Expected points = make chance x 2 or 3. Shot selection is a player's expected points per shot minus the league's (1.091). Shot making is actual minus expected points, per 100 shots. Players need 200+ shots to be ranked. Free throws are not included.
The test
- Fit on 175,364 shots, tested on 43,788 shots from 246 games it never saw (a random 20% of games).
- AUC 0.644 (0.5 is a coin flip, 1.0 is perfect). A zone-only average scores 0.632.
- Log loss 0.653 vs 0.659 for zone only and 0.692 for one league-wide FG% (lower is better). Brier score 0.231.
- Test games: league FG% 47.3%, mean predicted 47.0%.
- All shots: 239,129 actual points from field goals vs 239,153 expected (+0.01%).
What it cannot see
- How close the nearest defender was. A wide-open three and a contested one look the same.
- Play type (catch and shoot, pull-up, post-up, putback) and the shot clock.
- Who the shooter is. That is on purpose: the gap between actual and expected is the shot making.
- Fouls and and-ones, so drawing contact is not credited here.
- Playoff defense: on 2025-26 playoff shots it predicted about 4.5% more points than were scored.
Shot making is noisy: over 300 shots, luck alone moves it by about 6 points per 100 either way.