Sun, Oct 25 · 2026-27

Player projections

Expected minutes, points, rebounds, assists and threes for every player, from recent form, the opponent's defense by position and pace. Each number comes with an 80% range.

01Projections

Sun, Oct 25 · 7 games

Based on 2025-26: nobody has played 5 games of 2026-27 yet, so these use last season's per-minute numbers and expected minutes on each player's current roster. Players with fewer than 20 games last season are left out until they play. They switch to this season's games on their own.

LAL at UTA 5:00 PM ET · IND at BKN 6:00 PM ET · LAC at OKC 7:00 PM ET · ORL at NYK 7:00 PM ET · TOR at MIN 7:00 PM ET · DET at PHI 7:30 PM ET · MEM at SAC 9:00 PM ET

Player	Matchup	MIN	PTS ↓	REB	AST	3PM
Luka DoncicForward	at UTA	35	32.920-45	7.64-12	8.65-13	3.81-7
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGuard	vs LAC	32	29.718-42	4.01-7	6.33-10	1.60-3
Jaylen BrownGuard	vs DET	34	28.717-40	6.83-11	5.02-8	1.90-4
Anthony EdwardsGuard	vs TOR	34	28.317-40	4.72-8	3.61-6	3.21-6
Kawhi LeonardForward	at MIN	31	26.915-38	6.13-10	3.31-6	2.40-5
Tyrese MaxeyGuard	vs DET	36	26.715-38	3.81-7	6.03-10	2.91-5
Lauri MarkkanenForward	vs LAL	33	26.615-38	6.73-11	2.10-4	2.61-5
Jalen BrunsonGuard	vs ORLvs bottom-5 defense	34	25.314-36	3.21-6	6.53-10	2.51-5
Joel EmbiidForward	vs DETvs top-5 defense	30	25.115-38	7.13-11	3.61-7	1.30-3
Michael Porter Jr.Forward	vs IND	32	24.213-35	7.03-11	2.91-5	3.21-6
Keyonte GeorgeGuard	vs LAL	32	23.713-34	3.61-6	6.43-10	2.41-5
Cade CunninghamGuard	at PHI	33	23.413-34	5.52-9	9.86-14	1.90-4
Austin ReavesGuard	at UTAvs bottom-5 defense	34	23.313-34	4.72-8	5.63-9	2.30-5
Pascal SiakamForward	at BKN	32	23.213-34	6.33-10	3.71-7	1.50-3
Paolo BancheroForward	at NYK	34	21.011-31	7.94-12	4.82-8	1.10-3
Julius RandleForward	vs IND	33	21.011-31	6.63-10	4.82-8	1.30-3
LeBron JamesForward	vs DETvs top-5 defense	33	20.911-31	5.93-10	7.04-11	1.30-3
LaMelo BallGuard	vs TOR	28	20.011-31	4.72-8	6.94-11	3.71-6
Brandon IngramForward	at OKCvs top-5 defense	33	19.910-30	5.32-9	3.41-6	1.60-3
Jaren Jackson Jr.Forward	vs LAL	30	19.410-30	5.62-9	2.00-4	1.70-4
Karl-Anthony TownsCenter	vs ORL	30	19.410-29	11.47-16	2.91-5	1.30-3
Desmond BaneGuard	at NYK	33	19.210-29	3.91-7	3.91-7	1.90-4
Jalen DurenCenter	at PHI	28	19.110-30	10.36-16	1.80-4	0.00-1
Jerami GrantForward	at SACvs bottom-5 defense	29	18.810-30	3.51-6	2.20-5	2.31-5
RJ BarrettForward	at MIN	30	18.710-29	5.12-9	3.11-6	1.50-3
Zach LaVineGuard	vs MEM	29	18.29-29	2.60-5	2.20-5	2.41-5
Darius GarlandGuard	at OKCvs top-5 defense	29	17.69-28	2.20-5	6.13-10	2.61-5
Scottie BarnesGuard	at MIN	33	17.48-27	7.24-11	5.63-9	0.80-2
Chet HolmgrenCenter	vs LAC	28	16.98-27	8.55-13	1.60-4	1.30-3
Franz WagnerForward	at NYK	25	16.68-27	4.21-7	2.61-5	1.20-3
Andrew NembhardGuard	at BKN	31	16.47-25	2.70-5	7.64-12	1.80-4
VJ EdgecombeGuard	vs DET	35	16.07-25	5.52-9	4.11-7	1.90-4
Collin SextonGuard	at UTAvs bottom-5 defense	24	15.97-27	2.30-5	3.41-6	1.70-3
Immanuel QuickleyGuard	at MIN	31	15.97-25	3.91-7	5.73-9	2.30-4
OG AnunobyForward	vs ORLvs top-5 defense	32	15.87-25	4.92-8	2.00-4	2.10-4
Brice SensabaughForward	vs LAL	24	15.47-26	3.11-6	2.00-4	2.21-4
Ayo DosunmuGuard	vs TOR	27	14.87-24	3.31-6	3.51-7	1.70-4
Anfernee SimonsGuard	vs DET	26	14.77-24	2.50-5	2.40-5	2.61-5
Jaden McDanielsForward	vs TOR	31	14.56-23	4.11-7	2.61-5	1.30-3
Anthony BlackGuard	at NYK	29	14.46-24	3.61-7	3.51-7	1.50-3
De'Andre HunterForward	vs MEMvs bottom-5 defense	26	14.16-23	4.21-8	2.10-4	1.70-4
Nikola VucevicCenter	at NYKvs top-5 defense	28	14.06-23	7.84-12	2.91-6	1.50-3
Airious BaileyForward	vs LAL	27	13.96-23	4.21-7	1.80-4	1.90-4
Ivica ZubacCenter	at BKN	30	13.86-23	10.16-15	2.00-4	0.00-1
Kelly Oubre Jr.Forward	at BKN	31	13.76-22	4.82-8	1.60-3	1.60-3
Mikal BridgesForward	vs ORLvs top-5 defense	32	13.76-22	3.61-6	3.41-6	1.70-4
Cedric CowardGuard	at SAC	26	13.66-23	5.93-10	2.81-6	1.50-3
Quentin GrimesGuard	at UTAvs bottom-5 defense	29	13.66-23	3.61-7	3.41-6	1.70-4
Jalen WilliamsGuard	vs LAC	23	13.55-23	3.51-7	4.32-8	0.60-2
Aaron NesmithGuard	at BKN	29	13.46-22	4.01-7	1.90-4	2.20-4
Jalen SuggsGuard	at NYK	27	13.36-22	3.71-7	5.22-9	2.00-4
John CollinsForward	at PHI	27	13.26-22	5.22-9	1.00-3	1.20-3
GG JacksonForward	at SACvs bottom-5 defense	22	13.25-23	4.51-8	1.60-4	1.20-3
Ajay MitchellGuard	vs LAC	26	13.26-22	3.11-6	3.51-7	1.00-3
Jaylen WellsForward	at SACvs bottom-5 defense	26	12.85-22	3.21-6	1.70-4	1.90-4
Malik MonkGuard	vs MEM	22	12.85-22	1.90-4	3.11-6	2.01-4
Maxime RaynaudCenter	vs MEM	26	12.75-22	7.64-12	1.50-3	0.30-2
Noah ClowneyForward	vs IND	27	12.55-21	4.21-7	1.60-4	1.90-4
Donte DiVincenzoGuard	vs TOR	30	12.15-21	3.91-7	3.71-7	2.91-5
Isaiah CollierGuard	vs LAL	26	11.95-21	2.50-5	7.64-12	0.50-2
Duncan RobinsonForward	at PHI	27	11.95-20	2.60-5	2.00-4	2.71-5
Miles McBrideGuard	vs ORLvs bottom-5 defense	26	11.95-20	2.40-5	2.50-5	2.61-5
Josh HartGuard	vs ORLvs bottom-5 defense	30	11.85-20	7.03-11	4.62-8	1.40-3
Kyle FilipowskiCenter	vs LAL	23	11.54-21	7.23-12	2.71-5	0.90-2
Jarace WalkerForward	at BKN	26	11.54-20	5.02-9	2.50-5	1.60-3
Sandro MamukelashviliForward	at UTA	22	11.44-20	5.02-9	2.00-4	1.40-3
Wendell Carter Jr.Forward	at NYK	29	11.34-20	7.03-11	1.90-4	0.90-2
Isaiah JoeGuard	at PHI	21	11.24-20	2.60-5	1.40-3	2.51-5
Cam SpencerGuard	at SAC	24	11.24-20	2.60-5	5.63-9	2.00-4
Jusuf NurkicCenter	vs LAL	26	10.94-19	10.46-16	4.92-9	0.60-2
Jonathan KumingaForward	vs TOR	21	10.83-20	5.02-9	2.00-4	0.80-2
Rui HachimuraForward	at OKCvs top-5 defense	28	10.84-19	3.21-6	0.80-2	1.60-3
Egor DeminGuard	vs INDvs bottom-5 defense	26	10.74-19	3.31-6	3.41-6	2.31-5
Jakob PoeltlCenter	at MIN	25	10.64-19	6.93-11	2.20-5	0.00-1
Ziaire WilliamsGuard	at UTAvs bottom-5 defense	23	10.63-19	2.40-5	1.10-3	1.60-3
Precious AchiuwaForward	vs MEMvs bottom-5 defense	24	10.53-19	7.03-12	1.50-3	0.40-2
Rudy GobertCenter	vs TORvs top-5 defense	31	10.43-17	11.27-16	1.60-3	0.00-1
Isaiah StewartForward	at SACvs bottom-5 defense	23	10.43-19	5.12-9	1.20-3	0.70-2
Kevin HuerterGuard	at PHI	23	10.23-19	3.51-7	2.61-5	1.40-3
Javon SmallGuard	at SAC	21	9.93-18	3.21-6	3.81-7	1.50-3
Ausar ThompsonGuard	at PHI	26	9.93-18	5.83-10	3.21-6	0.10-2
Tristan Da SilvaForward	at NYK	25	9.63-17	3.61-7	1.50-4	1.50-3
Jordan MillerGuard	at OKCvs top-5 defense	22	9.63-18	2.90-6	2.10-4	0.60-2
Jay HuffForward	at BKN	21	9.63-18	3.91-7	1.50-3	1.40-3
Daniss JenkinsGuard	at PHI	20	9.53-18	2.40-5	4.02-7	1.00-2
Derrick Jones Jr.Forward	at OKCvs top-5 defense	27	9.53-17	3.31-6	1.30-3	1.00-3
Nolan TraoréGuard	vs INDvs bottom-5 defense	23	9.43-18	1.80-4	4.02-7	1.10-2
Landry ShametGuard	vs ORLvs bottom-5 defense	23	9.33-18	1.80-4	1.40-3	2.00-4
Danny WolfForward	vs IND	22	9.32-18	5.12-9	2.30-5	1.20-3
Isaiah HartensteinForward	vs LAC	24	9.03-16	9.15-14	3.61-7	0.00-1
Cody WilliamsForward	vs TOR	24	8.73-16	2.91-6	2.00-4	0.40-2
Nique CliffordGuard	vs MEM	25	8.72-16	3.81-7	2.50-5	1.00-3
Daeqwon PlowdenGuard	vs MEM	21	8.72-17	2.40-5	1.00-3	1.60-3
Collin Murray-BoylesForward	at MIN	22	8.52-16	5.02-9	1.80-4	0.30-2
Cason WallaceGuard	vs LAC	26	8.32-15	2.91-6	2.50-5	1.30-3
Jake LaRaviaForward	at UTA	25	8.32-15	4.01-7	1.90-4	0.90-2
Ronald Holland IIForward	at PHI	20	8.32-16	4.11-8	1.20-3	0.60-2
Brook LopezCenter	at OKCvs top-5 defense	22	8.02-16	3.51-7	1.20-3	1.50-3
Ben SarafGuard	vs INDvs bottom-5 defense	22	8.02-16	2.20-5	3.51-6	0.40-2
Walter Clayton Jr.Guard	at SAC	21	8.02-16	2.10-5	4.22-7	1.10-3
Dominick BarlowForward	vs DETvs top-5 defense	25	7.92-15	4.92-8	1.20-3	0.30-2
Bruce BrownGuard	vs ORLvs bottom-5 defense	24	7.92-15	3.81-7	2.10-4	0.70-2
Ja'Kobe WalterGuard	at MIN	21	7.51-15	2.60-5	1.20-3	1.40-3
Terance MannGuard	vs INDvs bottom-5 defense	25	7.52-14	3.31-6	3.11-6	0.90-2
Jaylin WilliamsForward	vs LAC	20	7.21-14	5.42-9	2.51-5	1.50-3
Kobe SandersGuard	at OKCvs top-5 defense	20	7.11-14	2.20-5	1.50-3	1.20-3
Ben SheppardGuard	at BKN	22	7.01-14	3.00-6	1.80-4	1.30-3
Kris DunnGuard	at OKCvs top-5 defense	27	6.91-13	3.11-6	3.31-6	0.90-2
Drake PowellForward	vs IND	22	6.81-14	1.80-4	1.50-3	0.80-2
Jamal SheadGuard	at MIN	23	6.61-14	1.70-4	5.32-9	1.00-2
Kyle AndersonForward	at MIN	20	6.21-13	3.51-7	2.81-5	0.10-1
Dean WadeForward	vs DETvs top-5 defense	23	6.01-13	4.31-8	1.50-3	1.20-3
Kris MurrayForward	at SACvs bottom-5 defense	24	6.01-13	3.71-7	1.50-3	0.60-2
Dylan CardwellCenter	vs MEM	21	5.70-12	7.84-13	1.60-3	0.00-1

Small numbers under each projection are the 80% range. Defense chips rank the opponent on points allowed per 100 possessions to his position group: bottom-5 means one of the five most generous. 114 players shown.

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PlayerStatSportsbook line

Projection 32.9 (80% range 20-45). Type the line from your sportsbook to see the over and under chances.

One game is noisy: even a good projection misses by several points most nights. Add it to a parlay.

02Track record

2025-26 backtest

No projected games are final yet. Here is how the model did replaying 2025-26.

2025-26 backtest: average miss per player game

Stat	This model	Season average	Last 10 average	Gain vs season avg	Inside 80% range
Points	4.58	4.69	4.66	2.2%	80%
Rebounds	1.88	1.91	1.93	1.6%	81%
Assists	1.35	1.37	1.37	1.3%	80%
Threes made	0.89	0.90	0.91	1.1%	80%
Minutes	5.03	5.43	5.12	7.4%	n/a

Lower is better. Season and last-10 averages are the simple guesses the model has to beat.

How this works

The method

Two steps. First we project minutes from a player's minutes per game this season, over his last 10 games and over his last 5 (the last 5 count the most), plus home court and the second night of a back-to-back. Then each stat is his per-minute rate (season, last 10 and last 5) times those minutes, adjusted for the opponent and the pace.

The opponent adjustment compares how many points, rebounds, assists and threes the opponent allows per 100 possessions to his position group (guards, forwards or centers) with the league. Early in a season it leans on last season's number. An opponent that allows 10% more points to his position adds about 2.1% to his points. A game 3% faster than average adds about 5.5%.

The weights were fit by least squares on 24,874 player games from 2025-26. The 80% ranges come from how far real results landed from the projection in testing, grouped by projected minutes.

How we tested it

We replayed 2025-26 from Mon, Dec 1 to Sun, Apr 12, refitting on the first of each month using only earlier games, and projected 19,968 player games. The average miss on points was 4.58, against 4.69 for his season average and 4.66 for his last-10 average. The gain is small, but it held for every stat, and 80% of real point totals landed inside the 80% range.

A gradient boosting model on the same inputs missed by 4.65 points, so we kept the simpler model. It runs inside our database every morning.

What it cannot see

Injuries, rest days, who starts and trades after the morning update. It projects every active player as if he plays, and it is graded only on players who did. Minutes are the biggest source of error: had we known each player's real minutes, the average miss on points would have been 3.74 instead of 4.58. Blowouts cut starters' minutes and are not predicted.

Until a player has 5 games in a season, his projection uses last season's per-minute numbers and his expected minutes on his current roster (last season's minutes handed out down the depth chart). That early-season mode could not be tested, because our data starts in 2025-26. Rookies without NBA games get no projection, and neither do players with fewer than 20 games last season (a few games is too small a sample) until they play this season (Decision #87).

Updated every morning for the next seven days of games. Once a game tips off its projections are frozen, and those frozen numbers are what we grade.