Model vs the line
- MIA win: books
- 57.2%
- MIA win: Courtside
- 82.4%
- MIA -3.5 covers
- 70.7%
- Total (no model yet)
- 242.5
No lean on this game. Leans start once both teams have played 20 games, and then only when our number is well away from the books'. Early in the season a big gap usually means our model is behind. How leans work.
Consensus of 1 US sportsbook, updated 10:40 AM ET. Build a parlay.
You log in and confirm at the book or exchange yourself. Courtside never sees your account.
Analysis, not advice. Our numbers are model estimates and can be wrong; no bet is a sure thing. 21+ and only where sports betting is legal. Set a budget you can afford to lose. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
01Where the edges are
Pacers edges
No clear mismatch in Indiana's favor.
Heat edges
No clear mismatch in Miami's favor.
Using last season's numbers until both teams have played 10 games this season. Rosters may have changed.
02Tale of the tape
| IND | Rank | Stat | Rank | MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 111.7 | 28th | Offensive rating | 13th | 117.5 |
| 119.6 | 24th | Defensive rating | 12th | 115.2 |
| -7.9 | 26th | Net rating | 13th | +2.3 |
| 100.3 | 8th | Pace | 1st | 102.8 |
| 53.3 | 23rd | Effective FG % | 17th | 54.2 |
| 12.3 | 16th | Turnover % | 4th | 11.2 |
| 21.7 | 29th | Offensive rebound % | 17th | 25.4 |
| 19.6 | 22nd | Free throw rate | 14th | 21.2 |
| 55.6 | 24th | Opponent eFG % | 7th | 54.0 |
| 11.2 | 22nd | Forced turnover % | 17th | 12.2 |
| 74.1 | 15th | Defensive rebound % | 8th | 74.9 |
| 21.8 | 23rd | Opponent FT rate | 9th | 19.3 |
Game plan
03Form and season series
Pacers
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
Heat
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- L
- W
- L
- L
