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Game plans

Tuesday, April 7

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Wizards at Heat

How the Wizards beat the Heat

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
  2. TempoSlow it downThe Wizards play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

How the Heat beat the Wizards

  1. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Heat defense there ranks 4th (39.5% allowed).
  2. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Wizards at 100.8 (5th). Run and make them keep up.
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony DavisDavis (20.4 points per game): best in the paint (44% on 77 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (38%, league 42%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneWAS offenseMIA defenseMIA offenseWAS defense
At the rim67.3% (9th)65.3% (11th)65.1% (20th)68.5% (26th)
Paint38.9% (28th)44.8% (20th)44.2% (17th)40.6% (2nd)
Midrange43.4% (8th)39.5% (4th)37.8% (26th)41.9% (14th)
Corner 339.2% (10th)39.0% (18th)37.6% (19th)40.9% (28th)
Above-the-break 334.9% (16th)34.7% (16th)35.6% (9th)35.5% (20th)

02Matchups on Tue, Apr 7

10 games
  • Bulls at WizardsFinal

    How the Bulls beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the rim36.1% of Bulls shots come at the rim (2nd most), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 312.0% of Bulls shots come from the corners (6th most), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).

    How the Wizards beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Timberwolves at PacersFinal

    How the Timberwolves beat the Pacers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.

    How the Pacers beat the Timberwolves

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bucks at NetsFinal

    How the Bucks beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Bucks shoot 36.9% from above the break (2nd), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).

    How the Nets beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Nets defense there ranks 30th (42.3% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at RaptorsFinal

    How the Heat beat the Raptors

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Raptors at 97.5 (22nd). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).

    How the Raptors beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Raptors play at 97.5 possessions per 48 minutes (22nd in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hornets at CelticsFinal

    How the Hornets beat the Celtics

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Hornets defense there ranks 17th (35.1% allowed).

    How the Celtics beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Celtics defense there ranks 24th (35.7% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon MillerMiller (20.2 points per game): best from the corners (42% on 71 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (37%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Jazz at PelicansFinal

    How the Jazz beat the Pelicans

    1. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.

    How the Pelicans beat the Jazz

    1. AttackAttack the rim40.4% of Pelicans shots come at the rim (1st most), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Kings at WarriorsFinal

    How the Kings beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).

    How the Warriors beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Thunder at LakersFinal

    How the Thunder beat the Lakers

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Thunder shoot 48.1% from midrange (1st), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Lakers beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Lakers shoot 36.3% from above the break (6th), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at ClippersFinal

    How the Mavericks beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Clippers beat the Mavericks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Clippers shots come in the paint (6th most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at SunsFinal

    How the Rockets beat the Suns

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st), and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    How the Suns beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st) and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.