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Game plans

Thursday, April 2

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Wizards at Heat

How the Wizards beat the Heat

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
  2. TempoSlow it downThe Wizards play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

How the Heat beat the Wizards

  1. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Heat defense there ranks 4th (39.5% allowed).
  2. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Wizards at 100.8 (5th). Run and make them keep up.
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony DavisDavis (20.4 points per game): best in the paint (44% on 77 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (38%, league 42%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneWAS offenseMIA defenseMIA offenseWAS defense
At the rim67.3% (9th)65.3% (11th)65.1% (20th)68.5% (26th)
Paint38.9% (28th)44.8% (20th)44.2% (17th)40.6% (2nd)
Midrange43.4% (8th)39.5% (4th)37.8% (26th)41.9% (14th)
Corner 339.2% (10th)39.0% (18th)37.6% (19th)40.9% (28th)
Above-the-break 334.9% (16th)34.7% (16th)35.6% (9th)35.5% (20th)

02Matchups on Thu, Apr 2

6 games
  • Suns at HornetsFinal

    How the Suns beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Suns defense there ranks 5th (34.0% allowed).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th) and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).

    How the Hornets beat the Suns

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th), and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd) and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Timberwolves at PistonsFinal

    How the Timberwolves beat the Pistons

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    How the Pistons beat the Timberwolves

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at ThunderFinal

    How the Lakers beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Lakers shoot 36.3% from above the break (6th), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).

    How the Thunder beat the Lakers

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Thunder shoot 48.1% from midrange (1st), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Cavaliers at WarriorsFinal

    How the Cavaliers beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Cavaliers shoot 44.5% from midrange (4th), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).

    How the Warriors beat the Cavaliers

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pelicans at Trail BlazersFinal

    How the Pelicans beat the Trail Blazers

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd) and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).
    2. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pelicans grab 27.0% of their misses (8th), and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Pelicans

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd), and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).
    2. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at ClippersFinal

    How the Spurs beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Spurs play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Clippers beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the Spurs at 99.1 (13th). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.