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Game plans

Wednesday, October 21

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Jazz at Grizzlies

How the Jazz beat the Grizzlies

  1. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Jazz defense there ranks 30th (48.8% allowed).
  2. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Grizzlies allow 44.9% there (21st of 30).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Ty JeromeJerome (19.7 points per game): best in the paint (53% on 64 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%). 40% on the left side, 47% on the right; push him left.
  4. AttackAttack the corner 311.9% of Jazz shots come from the corners (7th most), and the Grizzlies allow 39.6% there (23rd of 30).
  5. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Grizzlies force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th) and the Jazz give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

How the Grizzlies beat the Jazz

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
  2. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most) and they make 47.6% (5th). The Grizzlies defense there ranks 21st (44.9% allowed).
  4. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.0% of Grizzlies shots come from above the break (8th most), and the Jazz allow 36.4% there (27th of 30).
  5. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Grizzlies force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th), and the Jazz give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneUTA offenseMEM defenseMEM offenseUTA defense
At the rim66.5% (14th)68.4% (24th)64.1% (25th)72.0% (30th)
Paint47.6% (5th)44.9% (21st)45.9% (8th)48.8% (30th)
Midrange38.8% (25th)43.1% (24th)40.3% (19th)44.1% (28th)
Corner 338.1% (16th)39.6% (23rd)36.5% (27th)39.2% (21st)
Above-the-break 332.9% (29th)35.2% (18th)34.8% (18th)36.4% (27th)

02Matchups on Wed, Oct 21

11 games
  • Hawks at Magic7:00 PM ET

    How the Hawks beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).

    How the Magic beat the Hawks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bucks at Wizards7:00 PM ET

    How the Bucks beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Bucks shoot 68.7% at the rim (5th), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).

    How the Wizards beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Wizards defense there ranks 28th (40.9% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Timberwolves at Heat7:30 PM ET

    How the Timberwolves beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Timberwolves play at 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes (9th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Heat beat the Timberwolves

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Timberwolves at 99.8 (9th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hornets at Nets7:30 PM ET

    How the Hornets beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Hornets shoot 42.8% from the corners (3rd), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).

    How the Nets beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Nets defense there ranks 28th (36.4% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon MillerMiller (20.2 points per game): best from the corners (42% on 71 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (37%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at Raptors7:30 PM ET

    How the Bulls beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Raptors at 97.5 (22nd). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Raptors beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Raptors shoot 44.1% from midrange (6th), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Raptors play at 97.5 possessions per 48 minutes (22nd in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Jazz at Grizzlies8:00 PM ET

    How the Jazz beat the Grizzlies

    1. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Jazz defense there ranks 30th (48.8% allowed).
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Grizzlies allow 44.9% there (21st of 30).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pacers at Pelicans8:00 PM ET

    How the Pacers beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).

    How the Pelicans beat the Pacers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Pelicans shoot 39.2% from the corners (9th), and the Pacers allow 39.4% there (22nd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at Rockets8:30 PM ET

    How the Mavericks beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Rockets beat the Mavericks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at Lakers10:00 PM ET

    How the Warriors beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).

    How the Lakers beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Lakers shoot 44.4% from midrange (5th), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Suns at Trail Blazers10:00 PM ET

    How the Suns beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd), and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd) and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Suns

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd) and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
    2. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd), and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Kings at Clippers10:30 PM ET

    How the Kings beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Kings play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Clippers beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Clippers shoot 69.4% at the rim (3rd), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Clippers shots come in the paint (6th most), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.