Game plans · Friday, March 20
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Raptors at Jazz
How the Raptors beat the Jazz
- Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
- AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).
- Take awayTake away the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most) and they make 47.6% (5th). The Raptors defense there ranks 19th (44.5% allowed).
- AttackAttack midrangeThe Raptors shoot 44.1% from midrange (6th), and the Jazz allow 44.1% there (28th of 30).
- AttackAttack the paint20.9% of Raptors shots come in the paint (9th most), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).
How the Jazz beat the Raptors
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Jazz give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).
- TempoPush the paceThe Jazz play at 101.6 possessions per 48 minutes (3rd in pace), the Raptors at 97.5 (22nd). Run and make them keep up.
- Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Jazz defense there ranks 30th (72.0% allowed).
| Zone | TOR offense | UTA defense | UTA offense | TOR defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 67.7% (7th) | 72.0% (30th) | 66.5% (14th) | 66.0% (15th) |
| Paint | 43.6% (20th) | 48.8% (30th) | 47.6% (5th) | 44.5% (19th) |
| Midrange | 44.1% (6th) | 44.1% (28th) | 38.8% (25th) | 39.8% (7th) |
| Corner 3 | 38.6% (13th) | 39.2% (21st) | 38.1% (16th) | 38.6% (14th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 34.1% (23rd) | 36.4% (27th) | 32.9% (29th) | 33.7% (2nd) |
Matchups on Fri, Mar 20
- Knicks at Nets
How the Knicks beat the Nets
- AttackAttack the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).
How the Nets beat the Knicks
- TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
- Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Nets defense there ranks 30th (42.3% allowed).
- Warriors at Pistons
How the Warriors beat the Pistons
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st) and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
How the Pistons beat the Warriors
- TurnoversPressure the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st), and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).
- Hawks at Rockets
How the Hawks beat the Rockets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
- Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Hawks defense there ranks 18th (44.2% allowed).
How the Rockets beat the Hawks
- TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.
- Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).
- Celtics at Grizzlies
How the Celtics beat the Grizzlies
- TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Grizzlies at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th), and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
How the Grizzlies beat the Celtics
- TempoPush the paceThe Grizzlies play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
- GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th) and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
- Trail Blazers at Timberwolves
How the Trail Blazers beat the Timberwolves
- AttackAttack the corner 312.2% of Trail Blazers shots come from the corners (5th most), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
How the Timberwolves beat the Trail Blazers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).
- Raptors at Nuggets
How the Raptors beat the Nuggets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).
How the Nuggets beat the Raptors
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
- Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Nuggets defense there ranks 27th (69.1% allowed).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.