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Game plans

Thursday, April 9

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Heat at Wizards

How the Heat beat the Wizards

  1. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Heat defense there ranks 4th (39.5% allowed).
  2. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Wizards at 100.8 (5th). Run and make them keep up.
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony DavisDavis (20.4 points per game): best in the paint (44% on 77 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (38%, league 42%).

How the Wizards beat the Heat

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
  2. TempoSlow it downThe Wizards play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMIA offenseWAS defenseWAS offenseMIA defense
At the rim65.1% (20th)68.5% (26th)67.3% (9th)65.3% (11th)
Paint44.2% (17th)40.6% (2nd)38.9% (28th)44.8% (20th)
Midrange37.8% (26th)41.9% (14th)43.4% (8th)39.5% (4th)
Corner 337.6% (19th)40.9% (28th)39.2% (10th)39.0% (18th)
Above-the-break 335.6% (9th)35.5% (20th)34.9% (16th)34.7% (16th)

02Matchups on Thu, Apr 9

6 games
  • Heat at RaptorsFinal

    How the Heat beat the Raptors

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Raptors at 97.5 (22nd). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).

    How the Raptors beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Raptors play at 97.5 possessions per 48 minutes (22nd in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at WizardsFinal

    How the Bulls beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the rim36.1% of Bulls shots come at the rim (2nd most), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 312.0% of Bulls shots come from the corners (6th most), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).

    How the Wizards beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pacers at NetsFinal

    How the Pacers beat the Nets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Nets at 96.2 (25th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Nets beat the Pacers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the Pacers at 100.3 (8th). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at KnicksFinal

    How the Celtics beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Celtics defense there ranks 2nd (36.2% allowed).

    How the Knicks beat the Celtics

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Knicks defense there ranks 21st (35.5% allowed).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Knicks shoot 44.9% from midrange (2nd), and the Celtics allow 42.5% there (21st of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • 76ers at RocketsFinal

    How the 76ers beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st) and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).

    How the Rockets beat the 76ers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at WarriorsFinal

    How the Lakers beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Lakers shoot 44.4% from midrange (5th), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).

    How the Warriors beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.