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Game plans · Saturday, April 4

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Lakers at Pacers

How the Lakers beat the Pacers

  1. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Lakers shoot 44.4% from midrange (5th), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
  4. TempoSlow it downThe Lakers play at 97.6 possessions per 48 minutes (21st in pace), the Pacers at 100.3 (8th). Make it a half-court game.

How the Pacers beat the Lakers

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
  2. Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Pacers defense there ranks 27th (47.1% allowed).
  3. AttackAttack midrange11.6% of Pacers shots come from midrange (7th most), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
  4. TempoPush the paceThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Lakers at 97.6 (21st). Run and make them keep up.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneLAL offenseIND defenseIND offenseLAL defense
At the rim73.4% (1st)66.3% (17th)64.1% (26th)70.5% (29th)
Paint48.8% (1st)47.1% (27th)45.0% (15th)43.0% (9th)
Midrange44.4% (5th)45.4% (30th)39.8% (22nd)44.7% (29th)
Corner 334.9% (29th)39.4% (22nd)37.2% (23rd)37.7% (8th)
Above-the-break 336.3% (6th)34.2% (8th)35.1% (15th)34.2% (10th)

Matchups on Sat, Apr 4

3 games
  • Wizards at HeatFinal

    How the Wizards beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Wizards play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Heat beat the Wizards

    1. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Heat defense there ranks 4th (39.5% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Wizards at 100.8 (5th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at NuggetsFinal

    How the Spurs beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim32.3% of Spurs shots come at the rim (7th most), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Spurs

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pistons at 76ersFinal

    How the Pistons beat the 76ers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Pistons

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd) and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.