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Game plans

Saturday, April 4

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Cavaliers at Warriors

How the Cavaliers beat the Warriors

  1. AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Cavaliers shoot 44.5% from midrange (4th), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).
  4. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most) and they make 39.5% (8th). The Cavaliers defense there ranks 25th (40.1% allowed).

How the Warriors beat the Cavaliers

  1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
  3. AttackAttack the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneCLE offenseGSW defenseGSW offenseCLE defense
At the rim67.2% (11th)67.8% (22nd)68.9% (4th)62.6% (4th)
Paint47.8% (4th)47.0% (26th)43.4% (21st)44.0% (13th)
Midrange44.5% (4th)43.1% (26th)39.5% (23rd)42.4% (20th)
Corner 337.6% (18th)40.9% (27th)39.5% (8th)40.1% (25th)
Above-the-break 335.4% (11th)34.4% (13th)34.1% (24th)36.1% (25th)

02Matchups on Sat, Apr 4

3 games
  • Wizards at HeatFinal

    How the Wizards beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Wizards play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Heat beat the Wizards

    1. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Heat defense there ranks 4th (39.5% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Wizards at 100.8 (5th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at NuggetsFinal

    How the Spurs beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim32.3% of Spurs shots come at the rim (7th most), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Spurs

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pistons at 76ersFinal

    How the Pistons beat the 76ers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Pistons

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd) and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.