Game plans · Tuesday, November 10
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Hawks at Wizards
How the Hawks beat the Wizards
- AttackAttack the corner 311.7% of Hawks shots come from the corners (8th most), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).
- TurnoversPressure the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th), and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
- Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Hawks defense there ranks 17th (42.0% allowed).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony DavisDavis (20.4 points per game): best in the paint (44% on 77 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (38%, league 42%).
How the Wizards beat the Hawks
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th) and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).
| Zone | ATL offense | WAS defense | WAS offense | ATL defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 64.9% (21st) | 68.5% (26th) | 67.3% (9th) | 65.2% (10th) |
| Paint | 45.0% (14th) | 40.6% (2nd) | 38.9% (28th) | 44.2% (18th) |
| Midrange | 42.3% (13th) | 41.9% (14th) | 43.4% (8th) | 42.0% (17th) |
| Corner 3 | 38.9% (11th) | 40.9% (28th) | 39.2% (10th) | 38.1% (10th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 36.4% (4th) | 35.5% (20th) | 34.9% (16th) | 34.6% (15th) |
Matchups on Tue, Nov 10
- Bucks at Knicks
How the Bucks beat the Knicks
- TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
- Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Bucks defense there ranks 29th (41.1% allowed).
How the Knicks beat the Bucks
- Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
- AttackAttack the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most), and the Bucks allow 41.1% there (29th of 30).
- Celtics at 76ers
How the Celtics beat the 76ers
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
- TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Make it a half-court game.
How the 76ers beat the Celtics
- Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The 76ers defense there ranks 3rd (33.8% allowed).
- GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th) and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
- Clippers at Suns
How the Clippers beat the Suns
- AttackAttack the rimThe Clippers shoot 69.4% at the rim (3rd), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
How the Suns beat the Clippers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.9% of Suns shots come from above the break (4th most), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).
- Heat at Jazz
How the Heat beat the Jazz
- Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
- AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).
How the Jazz beat the Heat
- Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
- Magic at Kings
How the Magic beat the Kings
- AttackAttack the rim32.6% of Magic shots come at the rim (6th most), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
- Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Magic defense there ranks 23rd (45.3% allowed).
How the Kings beat the Magic
- AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
- Thunder at Trail Blazers
How the Thunder beat the Trail Blazers
- TurnoversPressure the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd), and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).
How the Trail Blazers beat the Thunder
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd) and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.