Shot quality
Shot quality
Shot selection: how many points a player's shots are worth before anyone shoots them. Shot making: how many more (or fewer) he actually scores.
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Reading it: +5 shot making means 5 more points per 100 shots than an average shooter would score on the same shots. +0.05 shot selection means each shot is worth 0.05 more points than the league's typical shot.
Highest shot making ยท centers
No shot quality numbers yet.
Percentiles are among all players with 200+ shots. Tap a player for his shot chart in the Quality view.
How this works
The method
Every shot gets an expected make chance from a logistic regression fit on all 2025-26 regular-season shots. It uses only what the play-by-play records: distance (2 ft steps), two or three, corner three, paint or midrange, shot type (layup or dunk, jumper, floater or hook), fourth quarter or overtime, the last 24 seconds of a period, and home or away.
Expected points = make chance x 2 or 3. Shot selection is a player's expected points per shot minus the league's. Shot making is actual minus expected points, per 100 shots. Players need 200+ shots to be ranked. Free throws are not included.
The test
Model numbers are unavailable right now.
What it cannot see
- How close the nearest defender was. A wide-open three and a contested one look the same.
- Play type (catch and shoot, pull-up, post-up, putback) and the shot clock.
- Who the shooter is. That is on purpose: the gap between actual and expected is the shot making.
- Fouls and and-ones, so drawing contact is not credited here.
- Playoff defense: on 2025-26 playoff shots it predicted about 4.5% more points than were scored.
Shot making is noisy: over 300 shots, luck alone moves it by about 6 points per 100 either way.