Live win probability
No finished games yet. Every game has its win-chance line.
Nothing is live right now. Here is how the win chance moved in the latest finished games, with each game's biggest swing.
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How this works
The method
At any moment, the home team's win chance comes from a logistic regression with three ingredients: the score margin, the time left, and the pregame win chance from our win probability model. The margin counts more as the clock runs down (we divide it by the square root of the minutes left), and the pregame edge fades as the game goes on. Overtime runs on its own five-minute clock. When time runs out, a lead means 100%.
We fit it on every games from 2025-26 (regular season and playoffs), using the score at every basket plus a check every 30 seconds of game clock, so long scoring droughts count too (about 259,000 moments in all). The biggest swing is the largest change in win chance inside any three minutes of game time, and the biggest single play is the basket that moved it most.
How we tested it
What it can't see
- Who has the ball, fouls, timeouts, the bonus or who is on the floor. Up 2 with 10 seconds left reads the same whoever has possession.
- Injuries or ejections during the game, beyond what the score shows.
- In the last seconds it is cautious: a 2-point lead with a second left shows about 89%, when the real chance is higher. The fit has few moments that close to the buzzer.
- Finished games use ESPN play-by-play timing, which can be a few seconds off, and a few games miss some late baskets (the chart then jumps to the final).
- Live charts add a point only when the score or the quarter changes, from a feed that updates about every 15 seconds.