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Game plans

Thursday, November 5

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Raptors at Lakers

How the Raptors beat the Lakers

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
  2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Raptors shoot 44.1% from midrange (6th), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Raptors defense there ranks 19th (44.5% allowed).
  4. AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).

How the Lakers beat the Raptors

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
  2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Lakers defense there ranks 29th (70.5% allowed).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneTOR offenseLAL defenseLAL offenseTOR defense
At the rim67.7% (7th)70.5% (29th)73.4% (1st)66.0% (15th)
Paint43.6% (20th)43.0% (9th)48.8% (1st)44.5% (19th)
Midrange44.1% (6th)44.7% (29th)44.4% (5th)39.8% (7th)
Corner 338.6% (13th)37.7% (8th)34.9% (29th)38.6% (14th)
Above-the-break 334.1% (23rd)34.2% (10th)36.3% (6th)33.7% (2nd)

02Matchups on Thu, Nov 5

2 games
  • Magic at Suns9:00 PM ET

    How the Magic beat the Suns

    1. AttackAttack the rim32.6% of Magic shots come at the rim (6th most), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Magic play at 99.3 possessions per 48 minutes (12th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Suns beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Suns play at 96.3 possessions per 48 minutes (24th in pace), the Magic at 99.3 (12th). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at Warriors10:00 PM ET

    How the Heat beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    How the Warriors beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Warriors play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.