Game plans · Saturday, March 7
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Raptors at Jazz
How the Raptors beat the Jazz
- Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
- AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).
- Take awayTake away the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most) and they make 47.6% (5th). The Raptors defense there ranks 19th (44.5% allowed).
- AttackAttack midrangeThe Raptors shoot 44.1% from midrange (6th), and the Jazz allow 44.1% there (28th of 30).
- AttackAttack the paint20.9% of Raptors shots come in the paint (9th most), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).
How the Jazz beat the Raptors
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Jazz give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).
- TempoPush the paceThe Jazz play at 101.6 possessions per 48 minutes (3rd in pace), the Raptors at 97.5 (22nd). Run and make them keep up.
- Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Jazz defense there ranks 30th (72.0% allowed).
| Zone | TOR offense | UTA defense | UTA offense | TOR defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 67.7% (7th) | 72.0% (30th) | 66.5% (14th) | 66.0% (15th) |
| Paint | 43.6% (20th) | 48.8% (30th) | 47.6% (5th) | 44.5% (19th) |
| Midrange | 44.1% (6th) | 44.1% (28th) | 38.8% (25th) | 39.8% (7th) |
| Corner 3 | 38.6% (13th) | 39.2% (21st) | 38.1% (16th) | 38.6% (14th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 34.1% (23rd) | 36.4% (27th) | 32.9% (29th) | 33.7% (2nd) |
Matchups on Sat, Mar 7
- Magic at Timberwolves
How the Magic beat the Timberwolves
- Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
How the Timberwolves beat the Magic
- Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
- AttackAttack the rimThe Timberwolves shoot 67.4% at the rim (8th), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).
- Nets at Pistons
How the Nets beat the Pistons
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st) and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
How the Pistons beat the Nets
- TurnoversPressure the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st), and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).
- 76ers at Hawks
How the 76ers beat the Hawks
- Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).
How the Hawks beat the 76ers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).
- Clippers at Grizzlies
How the Clippers beat the Grizzlies
- AttackAttack the rimThe Clippers shoot 69.4% at the rim (3rd), and the Grizzlies allow 68.4% there (24th of 30).
- TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the Grizzlies at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.
How the Grizzlies beat the Clippers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
- TempoPush the paceThe Grizzlies play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.
- Jazz at Bucks
How the Jazz beat the Bucks
- Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
- Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Jazz defense there ranks 21st (39.2% allowed).
How the Bucks beat the Jazz
- Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
- AttackAttack the rimThe Bucks shoot 68.7% at the rim (5th), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).
- Warriors at Thunder
How the Warriors beat the Thunder
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd) and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
How the Thunder beat the Warriors
- AttackAttack midrangeThe Thunder shoot 48.1% from midrange (1st), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).
- TurnoversPressure the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd), and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.