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Game plans · Sunday, March 22

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Heat at Rockets

How the Heat beat the Rockets

  1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Heat defense there ranks 20th (44.8% allowed).
  4. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Durant, Sengun, Smith, Thompson and Sheppard share the floor (272 min), they allow 123.1 per 100, against 114.2 for the team: attack it.

How the Rockets beat the Heat

  1. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMIA offenseHOU defenseHOU offenseMIA defense
At the rim65.1% (20th)65.3% (12th)65.8% (16th)65.3% (11th)
Paint44.2% (17th)44.1% (15th)47.2% (6th)44.8% (20th)
Midrange37.8% (26th)39.1% (2nd)40.2% (20th)39.5% (4th)
Corner 337.6% (19th)38.5% (12th)37.3% (21st)39.0% (18th)
Above-the-break 335.6% (9th)34.1% (6th)36.1% (7th)34.7% (16th)

Matchups on Sun, Mar 22

5 games
  • Trail Blazers at NuggetsFinal

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim33.5% of Trail Blazers shots come at the rim (4th most), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Nuggets play at 97.7 possessions per 48 minutes (20th in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nets at KingsFinal

    How the Nets beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.9% of Nets shots come from above the break (6th most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Nets defense there ranks 25th (46.6% allowed).

    How the Kings beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Nets allow 46.6% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Wizards at KnicksFinal

    How the Wizards beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Knicks grab 29.3% of their misses (5th) and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).

    How the Knicks beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Knicks grab 29.3% of their misses (5th), and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Timberwolves at CelticsFinal

    How the Timberwolves beat the Celtics

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Timberwolves play at 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes (9th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Timberwolves shoot 36.5% from above the break (3rd), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).

    How the Celtics beat the Timberwolves

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Timberwolves at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Celtics shoot 41.8% from the corners (4th), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Raptors at SunsFinal

    How the Raptors beat the Suns

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Raptors shoot 67.7% at the rim (7th), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    How the Suns beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Suns defense there ranks 23rd (67.9% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.