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Game plans

Friday, November 6

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Warriors at Lakers

How the Warriors beat the Lakers

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
  2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Warriors defense there ranks 26th (47.0% allowed).

How the Lakers beat the Warriors

  1. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Lakers shoot 44.4% from midrange (5th), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).
  4. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most) and they make 39.5% (8th). The Lakers defense there ranks 8th (37.7% allowed).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneGSW offenseLAL defenseLAL offenseGSW defense
At the rim68.9% (4th)70.5% (29th)73.4% (1st)67.8% (22nd)
Paint43.4% (21st)43.0% (9th)48.8% (1st)47.0% (26th)
Midrange39.5% (23rd)44.7% (29th)44.4% (5th)43.1% (26th)
Corner 339.5% (8th)37.7% (8th)34.9% (29th)40.9% (27th)
Above-the-break 334.1% (24th)34.2% (10th)36.3% (6th)34.4% (13th)

02Matchups on Fri, Nov 6

9 games
  • Wizards at Hawks7:00 PM ET

    How the Wizards beat the Hawks

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th) and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    How the Hawks beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the corner 311.7% of Hawks shots come from the corners (8th most), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th), and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at Hornets7:00 PM ET

    How the Celtics beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Celtics defense there ranks 24th (35.7% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon MillerMiller (20.2 points per game): best from the corners (42% on 71 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (37%, league 42%).

    How the Hornets beat the Celtics

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Hornets defense there ranks 17th (35.1% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • 76ers at Cavaliers7:30 PM ET

    How the 76ers beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    How the Cavaliers beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Jazz at Mavericks8:00 PM ET

    How the Jazz beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    How the Mavericks beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Jazz allow 44.1% there (28th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Thunder at Grizzlies8:00 PM ET

    How the Thunder beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Thunder shoot 48.1% from midrange (1st), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Thunder defense there ranks 1st (39.9% allowed).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.0% of Grizzlies shots come from above the break (8th most), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Raptors at Bucks8:00 PM ET

    How the Raptors beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Raptors defense there ranks 14th (38.6% allowed).

    How the Bucks beat the Raptors

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Timberwolves at Pelicans8:00 PM ET

    How the Timberwolves beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).

    How the Pelicans beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Pelicans shoot 39.2% from the corners (9th), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at Lakers10:00 PM ET

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim33.5% of Trail Blazers shots come at the rim (4th most), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).

    How the Lakers beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Lakers play at 97.6 possessions per 48 minutes (21st in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Spurs at Kings10:00 PM ET

    How the Spurs beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the rim32.3% of Spurs shots come at the rim (7th most), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Spurs defense there ranks 7th (42.5% allowed).

    How the Kings beat the Spurs

    1. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.