Game plans · Wednesday, April 15
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Cavaliers at Thunder
How the Cavaliers beat the Thunder
- Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.3% of Cavaliers shots come from above the break (7th most), and the Thunder allow 35.6% there (23rd of 30).
How the Thunder beat the Cavaliers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Thunder shoot 35.9% from above the break (8th), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).
| Zone | CLE offense | OKC defense | OKC offense | CLE defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 67.2% (11th) | 60.1% (1st) | 67.2% (10th) | 62.6% (4th) |
| Paint | 47.8% (4th) | 39.9% (1st) | 46.1% (7th) | 44.0% (13th) |
| Midrange | 44.5% (4th) | 38.0% (1st) | 48.1% (1st) | 42.4% (20th) |
| Corner 3 | 37.6% (18th) | 39.9% (24th) | 38.1% (17th) | 40.1% (25th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 35.4% (11th) | 35.6% (23rd) | 35.9% (8th) | 36.1% (25th) |
Matchups on Wed, Apr 15
- Magic at 76ers
How the Magic beat the 76ers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).
How the 76ers beat the Magic
- Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
- AttackAttack the rim33.4% of 76ers shots come at the rim (5th most), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).
- Warriors at Clippers
How the Warriors beat the Clippers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).
How the Clippers beat the Warriors
- AttackAttack the corner 3The Clippers shoot 41.6% from the corners (5th), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.